Analysis:
#271 / 4:25pm ET - 1:25pm PT
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DENVER BRONCOS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL (42.5 points)
MINNESOTA @ DENVER: On page three of my weekly OU newsletter, we mentioned the high percentage of the Sunday late-afternoon games that have gone OVER the Total this season (79%). So we gotta have at least ONE of those games as a Sunday play, right? OK... we’re choosing the AFC vs NFC game in the Mile High City as the undefeated Broncos host the 2-1 Vikings. Remember, this has been a good week to go ‘OVER’ for undefeated favorites.
GAME FOUR undefeated favs (DEN) have gone 21-6-1 O/U (78% Overs) since the 2006 season... including 9-1 O/U (90% Overs) in the last 4 years.
Yes, it is true that both of these teams went ‘UNDER’ in their wins last week... But, GAME FOUR home favs of 5 > pts have gone 8-1 O/U in the last five years when BOTH teams (BRONCOS + VIKINGS) went ‘Under’ in their last game.
Denver finds themselves in a unique scheduling situation this week. This is their ONLY home game in a 5-week stretch. They had back-to-back road games before this week’s game... and after as well. The database reveals that: NFL home favs of < 10 points after BB road gms... and before BB road gms (BRONCOS) have gone 23-5 O/U s’03 (11-1 O/U s’09) when the OU line is < 46 pts.
While we acknowledge that Denver’s defense has improved substantially this year, we can’t ignore that in the Peyton Manning era, BRONCO home games have gone 16-5-1 O/U when the OU line is < 54 points... and 12-2 O/U in NON-division play.
The visiting Vikings come into this road game off TWO convincing home wins in a row (31-14 vs SD and 26-16 vs Det)... 11-1-1 O/U since 2006: All non-division road teams in the first half of the season (Game 8 <) off back-to-back DOUBLE DIGIT home wins (VIKINGS) when the OU line is < 47 pts.
Minnesota figures to let it all hang out with their BYE WEEK up next... 14-3 O/U last 5 years: All non-division road underdogs of > 5 points BEFORE their Bye Week (VIKINGS). These teams have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U when playing off as SU win. Final score: 28 to 21.
Pick Made: Oct 2 2015 2:49PM PST