Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s
Sunday NFL 4 Pack
Sunday, October 4
Game 1 Buffalo 2*
-5 Westgate
Game 2 Cincinnati
2* -3 Buy One
-135 William Hill
Game 3 Browns/SD
2* UNDER 45 William Hill
Game 4 Denver
3* Money Line -290
The Greek
Game I
10 am Giants at Bills
Bills 2*
-5 Westgate
Two fair defenses face off in Buffalo today. The Giants allow 410.3 yards per game and the
Bills have only allowed 400.7. Both
teams are stingy against the run allowing about 74 yards per game each. The Giants pass defense allows 335.7 and the
Bills 326. That’s the worst 2 in the
NFL.
So you’d think this was a pretty even game, right? Not when you look at the offenses.
The Giants average less than a century per game on the
ground. 93.3 yards per game doesn’t get
it in the NFL. The Bills rush for 152.7
yards per game. The Giants an Eli pass
for 253 while the Bills go for 220.3.
But the Bills outgained the Giants on average by about 30 yards.
One edge Buffalo has is that they have played slightly
better opponents. The power rating for
Giant opponents is 20 and for Buffalo 22.7.
It’s not a huge difference, for sure.
But it is when you factor in that this is a home game for the Bills and
the inability of the Giants to run the ball.
NY started the season off by giving one away to the Cowboys,
27-26. Dallas outgained the Giants 436
to 289 in that one. Dallas turned it
over 3 times.
The Giants gave away game two to the Falcons, 24-20. The Falcons outgained the Giants 402 – 388. The Giants had 1 turnover, the only one in
that game.
Game three resulted in a 32-21 must win victory over the
Redskins. Once again the Giants were outgained
by their foe. The Redskins total offense
was 393 to 363 for the Giants.
Now the 1-2 Giants go to the 2-1 Bills. The Bills opened up the season against the
Colts and got a probable not as good as it looked win 27-14. The Colts don’t seem to have much punch this
year and it showed. The Bills gained 342
yards including 147 on the ground while the Colts amassed only 64 yards running
and 240 passing. The Colts had 3
turnovers to none for the Bills.
Game two featured the offense that won’t quit, the
Patriots. New England upended the Bills
at home, but Buffalo didn’t go down without a fight. The Pats ended up winning 40-32. The Pats had 2 turnovers and the Bills had
3. The Bills ran well again, getting 160
yards in 27 carries. New England was
stymied on the ground getting 56 yards but Brady tossed for 451 in the air.
Game 3 the Bills went to Miami and blasted the Fish
41-14. They had zero turnovers and the Dolphins
turned it over 3 times. The Bills
outgained the Dolphins 428-391.
Here are a few things I like about the Bills. First off, I make my own lines. I had Buffalo winning this by 10. I’m happy to give half of that here. Secondly, the Bills can run the ball and
control the clock if need be. That is
something the Giants cannot do. The Bills
are averaging 4.7 yards per carry. The
Giants are averaging 3.58.
Tyrod Taylor offers the Bills another dimension at the QB
spot. He ranks 5th in QB
rating at 116.1 and this is his first season as a starter. Manning is rated 12th, but has no
interceptions. I’d say that makes him
due for a couple in this game. Taylor
has thrown 3 picks but they all came against New England. Taylor’s completion percentage is 4th
in the league. He’s ahead of a few guys
you may have heard of – Brady and Rodgers!
The big problem the Bills are facing is injuries. LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are no doubt
out of this one. That takes two big
weapons off the table for Taylor. McCoy’s backup, Karlos Williams, may fill in
just fine. He gained 110 yards on just
12 carries against the Dolphins last week.
The Giant pass defense is the worst in the NFL. That’s the good news for Taylor. The Bill’s pass defense ranks 31st,
which is bad news. Buffalo will try to
run the ball first, after all, Rex Ryan is their coach. And despite McCoy’s absence, the Bills have
the most yards rushing in the NFL.
The Giant’s ability to strain the Buffalo secondary was set
back when Victor Cruz was ruled out of Sunday’s game. Of course, they still have that Beckham
guy. But their inability to run, they
rank last in rushing, is bound to hurt.
If Manning has to start forcing passes he’s bound to get picked.
Another reason I like Buffalo is that the Giants have
allowed at least 14 points in the 4th quarter of every game this
year. That indicates either a fitness
issue or an inability to adjust or the opponent’s ability to adjust with
ease. In either case, that’s a bad number
for the Giants.
Since Taylor has started for the Bills, they have averaged
36.5 points per game and rookie running back Karlos Williams is averaging 7.75
per carry. I think the Bills have too
much for the Giants. I’m taking the
Bills.
The Pick 2*
Buffalo -5 Westgate
Pick Made: Oct 2 2015 10:41AM PST