Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s 2* Tuesday
MLB Play
Tuesday, September
29, 2015
5:05 pm Detroit at Texas
The Pick Texas -1.5 run line -105
Westgate
Hamels Seeks to Stop
Texas Slide
The Rangers have lost 3 straight and both Houston and the
Angels are closing back in on them. The
Rangers have won the last 8 games Hamel has started, and they will need him as
a stopper tonight.
The Pitchers
Norris, Tigers
Norris is 2-2 with a 3.88 era. He’s coming off of 5 innings of scoreless and
hitless gall against the White Sox. He
went 3 2/3 innings previous to that and gave up 1 run on 1 hit to the
Twins. He’s appearance prior to that, 1
month prior, the Cubs got to him for 4 hits and 3 runs in 4 1/3 innings. He’s been lights out since coming off the
disabled list and it appears that he will continue to have a pitch limit of
about 80 pitches. He’s started just 11
games this season. Last year with Toronto
Norris was 0-0 with a 5.40 era. Earlier
in the season with Triple-A Buffalo, Norris was 3-10 with a 4.27 era. In 2014 with 3 teams in A+, AA and AAA ball,
he was 12-2 with a 2.53 era. It’s almost impossible to predict what Norris will
do. The only thing we do know is that
after 80-85 pitches at the most he’s gone and the Tiger bullpen will take over.
Hamels, Rangers
Hamels is turning into the pitcher the Rangers hoped they
would get when they traded for him. He’s
11-8 on the year with a 3.56 era. His
ear at home is 3.07 where he is 4-2 and in his last 3 starts he has gone 2-0
with a 1.80 era. The Rangers have won
all 8 of his last 8 starts and he is 5-0 with a 2.78 era in those 8
starts. He started against the Tigers on
August 23 in Detroit and held them to 2 runs in 6 innings. He’s 5-1 with a 3.41 era since coming to
Texas from the Phillies where he was 6-7 with a 3.64 era. Hamels is 1-1 versus Detroit lifetime with a
2.77 era.
The Bullpens
Tigers – 5.38 era on the road ; 21 saves and 9 blown
saves on the road
Rangers – 4.08 era at home ; 15 saves and 7
blown saves at home
Hamels is the guy in this one. No one can even guess what Norris will do in
this one, but you can be fairly sure that Hamels will pitch a decent game. And where else can you see a team with a
bullpen era of 4.08 having a better than 1 run era advantage in the pen? Hamels could easily go 7 if the pitch count
isn’t overwhelming. It’s doubtful that
Norris won’t make it past 5 at best.
Then that Detroit pen comes into play and that’s not good for the
Tigers. Starting and bullpen edge to the
Rangers.
The Hitters
Both of these teams feature better hitting than pitching in
most match ups.
Tigers
The Tigers average 4.3 runs per game. They improve on the road to 4.5. They get 4.4 against LHP and have averaged
just 3.4 in their last 7. In their last
9 games they have scored 3 runs or less 6 times. The Tigers score 4.0 at night. Detroit tops MLB with a .271 average and hit
.268 on the road. Detroit is 18th
in MLB with 0.94 HR per game. The Tigers
are 2nd in MLB with a .328 on base % that is .324 away. It’s clear that pitching is the problem in
Detroit. The Odds and Ends will point
that out.
Rangers
The Rangers average 4.6 runs per game. At home they also average 4.6. Against LHP
they average 4.7 and they have scored 6.4 per game in their last 7. They score 4.5 at night. Their overall average is .257 but that
skyrockets to .275 at home. The Rangers
are 13th in MLB HR per game at 1.04 and 6th in MLB on
base percentage with .325 which rises to .343 at home.
The hitting is pretty even.
But over the last 7 games the Rangers have a big advantage. The also have an excellent home field
advantage as far as hitting goes.
Odds and Ends
Texas is 84-72 and Detroit is 73-83.
Texas scores 4.6 runs per game and Detroit score 4.3.
Texas gives up 4.5 runs per game and Detroit gives up 5.0.
Texas has a PLUS run differential of 0.5 and Detroit has a
MINUS 0.7.
Texas is 34-23 when the total is 8/8.5. Detroit is 32-46.
Texas is 1-0 as home favorite of -175/-200. Detroit is 0-8 as a road dog of +175/+200.
Texas is 39-36 at home and Detroit is 35-40 on the road.
Texas is 13-11 at home when the total is 8/8.5. Detroit is 11-22 on the road with total of
8/8.5.
Texas is 16-10 in September.
Detroit is 13-13.
Texas is 62-49 at night and Detroit is 43-56.
Texas is 32-30 vs LHP.
Detroit is 21-15.
Texas is 59-60 against teams with losing records. Detroit is 50-66 vs teams w/winning records.
Texas has the edge in most of these categories, the question
is can they win by 2.
Coach’s conclusion:
If you feel comfortable laying around -200 on Texas, I
wouldn’t hesitate. I’m pretty confident
of a win here. But that price is much
higher than it should be because that’s what the linemakers do at this time of
the season. I’m counting on Hamels
having another excellent start and that Texas will score a couple off of Norris
until the pen comes in and all hell breaks loose in Arlington. The fans will be very loud and the Rangers
should be ready to snap the losing streak.
I’m taking the Rangers on the run line.
The Pick Texas -1.5 runs Run line
-105 Westgate
Pick Made: Sep 29 2015 11:02AM PST