Analysis:
4:10pm PT - 7:10pm PT / #910
NEW YORK YANKEES w/ Nova @ BOSTON RED SOX w/ Rodriguez
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Monday marked the first of a 3-game set between these two AL East Division rivals. The OU line opened at 9 runs on the ‘overnights’, and has already gone up a half on run on game day. That’s not a surprise, given the recent form of each team’s offense as of late (particularly the Yankees). It also doesn’t hurt us that we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for both teams in regards to tonight’s starting pitcher matchup. Throw in the fact that tonight’s weather forecast has the winds blowing OUT to right field in double-digits, and we’ll take a bite out of another Baseball ‘OVER’ (Our Baseball OVERS went 3-0 last week).
The Yankees have been a ‘Jekyl and Hyde’ offense in the last two months. After going through a high-scoring period in June and July, New York’s offense hit the skids in August. From August 5th thru the 26th, they averaged only 3.04 runs per game. It was only a matter of time before they started clicking again. And that happened over the weekend when they took to the road against the Atlanta Braves. The Yanks SWEPT that series, and scored 38 runs in the three games (12.7 runs per game).
Boston’s on a current offensive uptick as well. And it’s lasted a good six weeks. Their offense final awoke from a season-long funk. Since late July, the Red Sox have gone and amazing 24-6-2 O/U. They’ve averaged OVER 6.0 runs per game in this time period. Their starting pitching has stunk up the joint. But that’s the OTHER reason that so many of their games have gone OVER in the last six weeks.
Both starting pitchers are in major ‘free fall’ mode. Ivan Nova of the Yankees has an ERA of 4.50 on the year… but it has skyrocketed to 7.31 in his last three starts. He just got torched by 7 earned runs in only 4 innings pitched in his most recent start versus the Astros six days ago. That turned out to be a LOSER of 15 to 1. In his career versus Boston, the Red Sox are hitting .368 as team (25 for 68).
His counterpart (Eduardo Rodriguez) has been on the the best OVER pitchers in the Bigs this season (11-5 O/U)… despite a decent ERA of 4.39 for the season . However, in his last there starts.. the ERA has risen to 5.21. Since the middle of July, Rodriguez has gone 6-1 O/U in his last seven starts. He has gone OVER in EVERY one of his nine home stats this year except one (8-1 O/U).
The Sox are facing a righty tonight. In their last ten games, Boston has scored only 2.84 runs per game versus lefties… but 5.23 runs per game vs RIGHTIES.
The Yankees are facing a lefty tonight. In their last ten games, they are averaging 5.45 dog vs righties… AND 7.07 runs per game versus LEFTIES.
Pick Made: Aug 31 2015 8:54AM PST