Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s
Sunday 1* Premium Pick 1
Sunday, August 23
11:10 pm Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros
The Pick Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -115
Westgate
Kershaw Out to Snap
Dodger Losing Streak at Four
You might think that Clayton Kershaw is not having a great
season. He’s hardly ever mentioned in
the Cy Young talk and he is being somewhat upstaged by his teammate Zack
Greinke. Don’t let that fool you.
Kershaw has been on a tear.
The Pitchers
Kershaw, LAD McCullers.,
Astros
·
10-6, 2.34 era, 0.92 whip 5-4, 3.17 era, 1.21 whip
·
3-4, 3.09 era road 4-0, 1.50 era home
·
1-0. 2.14 era last 3 1-1, 6.57 era last 3
·
5-0, 0.82 era last 7 2-2, 3.96 era last 7
·
8-3, 1.30 era last 15 5-4, 3.17 era last 15
·
2-2, 2.79 era day 2-1, .257 era day
·
3-0, 0.27 era July 1-1, 3.13 era July
·
2-0, 1.55 era August 0-1, 162.00 era August (not a
mistake)
·
4-0, 0.98 Post All-Star 1-1, 6.57 era Post All-Star
·
LH hit .218 against LH hit .211 against
·
RH hit .197 against RH hit .243 against
·
3-2 vs Astros, 2.60 era (2011-12) No starts vs Dodgers
I’m not sure what we can expect from McCullers. I would lean to him regaining the form he has
had this season. But there may be
complications. Lance McCullers has been
in Double-A Corpus Christi since August 3.
The official reason was that it was an attempt to “limit his
innings.” Or it could be that in his
last start for Houston, McCullers gave up 6 earned runs in 1/3 of an
inning. McCullers is 5-4 this season
with a respectable 3.17 era and the Astros will need him healthy and pitching
like that to stay in first and fight off the Angels and Rangers. In his last 3 starts before his “demotion”
McCullers went 12 1/3 innings and allowed 9 runs, 18 hits, walked 4 and fanned
8. At Corpus Christi, McCullers was 3-1
with a stellar 0.56 era in 32 innings of work.
But that was Double-A ball and it’s a far cry from MLB.
In Kershaw’s starts this year where the Dodgers have won the
game, the Dodgers have won 13 of 14 by 2 runs or more. That’s a pretty strong percentage. So if you think the Dodgers win this game, the
run line is probably the way to go.
The Bullpens LAD – 5.17 era road Astros – 2.12 home era
You would think with the LAD’s bankroll they could field a
decent pen. It’s not like this hasn’t
been an issue all season. Less Chase
Utley and more bullpen help. The Dodgers
will need Kershaw to go 8 here, which he can do without a problem. Then pray.
The Hitters
Neither team has been hitting. They’ve both been having trouble getting a
big inning and an offensive explosion.
LAD Astros
·
4.1 runs per game 4.3 runs per game
·
.253 average over all .241 average over all
·
3.9 runs per game road 4.4 runs per game home
·
.247 average road .246 average home
·
4.3 runs per game vs RHP 3.8 runs per game vs LHP
·
.255 average vs RHP .236 average vs LHP
·
3.4 runs per game last 7 2.7 runs per game last 7
·
.230 average last 7 .217 average last 7
·
4.1 runs per game grass 4.4 runs per game grass
·
.253 average grass .243 average grass
·
3.8 runs per game day 4.4 runs per game day
·
.242 average day .242
average day
·
3.5 runs per game interleague 5.9 runs per game interleague
·
.222 average interleague .273 average interleague
The basic numbers here are not too far apart, but the
Houston edge comes with power. But the
Dodgers aren’t real short on power either.
Both teams are not hitting.
·
8.39 hits per game road 7.84 hits per game home
·
1.15 HR per game road 1.53 HR per game home
·
3.83 walks per game road 3.14 walks per game home
·
7.93 K’s per game road 8.77 K’s per game home (29th
MLB)
·
13.51 total bases per game road 14.33 total bases per game home
·
.399 slugging % on road .449 slugging % home
·
.329 on base % road (tied 1st MLB) .317 on base % home
I wouldn’t argue with anyone who claimed Houston had the
better offense. From a power stand point
they do. From a grinders stand point
they don’t. What I see is that the Astros
have trouble with LHP. They haven’t scored
many runs in their last 10, but they’ve gone 2 games scoring more than the
Dodgers and they beat Zack Greinke. What
will they do against Clayton?
Odds and Ends
Keep in mind we have 2 first place teams here. Suddenly they are both looking beatable. And the Dodgers stink it up on the road. Both of these teams need to get going and
Kershaw has to be the Dodger stopper.
·
Allow 3.7 runs per game Allow 3.6 runs per game
·
+54 run differential +77 run differential
·
67-55 68-56
·
25-35 on road 44-21
at home
·
9-10 in August 10-10
in August
·
8-8 interleague 13-3
interleague
·
19-13 day 21-19
day
·
54-41 vs RHP 24-22
vs RHP
·
23-25 vs team w/winning record 19-7 vs team w/winning record
·
10-9 vs team w/winning record 2nd
half 7-3 vs team w/winning record 2nd
half
Coach’s Conclusion:
This is an important game for both teams. The LAD have lost 4 straight and the Giants
are just 1.5 back. Pittsburgh and the
Cubs have better records than the Dodgers so even a Wild Card berth is no cinch
if SF passes them. The Astros have a comfortable
lead over the Angels and Rangers. The
Angels appear done for the year but the Rangers on coming on and have, in fact,
passed the Halos. To me, pitching is the
most important thing in baseball.
Kershaw is clearly the best pitcher in this game and he has been on
point. McCullers has been excellent, but
has had a tough time after the break. I’m
not so sure they sent him down to limit his innings. He pitched 32 innings in the minors. I suspect it may have been a confidence
problem with him. After all they dropped
him to Double-A where they knew he could dominate. I could certainly be wrong, but it was an
interesting move. I’m going to go with
Kershaw and the Dodgers on the run line.
If the Dodgers are to win this game, the odds say it will be by 2 or
more.
The Pick 1* Los
Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -115
Westgate
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Pick Made: Aug 22 2015 8:42PM PST