Analysis:I know Tropeano hadn't been dominant in AAA - but he is as strikeout pitcher the White Sox haven't seen, so we need him to get through the order a couple of times and turn it over to the pen. This is far more a fade of Quintana (high pitch counts lately) since he is really horrible against right handed hitters - a .296 batting average against this season. The Angels are 18-13 against left handed starters and 39-23 at home. Chicago is 25-35 on the road. It's really a cheap price for a quality home team just based on the starters, primarily "Quintana" - who we've watched get shelled. Add that to the fact that the Angels are in a pennant race and the White Sox are not - so at essentially "pick the winner" - give me the home team. And yes, still annoyed but compound last night's bullsh*t loss with the previous nights' Mets game - we had under and four runs in the ninth - the final two on walks, errors, and a wild pitch. You can't make that stuff up, including the infield fly rule double play in Cincinnati last night. We got every one of them (breaks) in the 1H and none in the 2H - we're (I'm) not doing anything differently - just picking teams that aren't performing in the two or three key spots that occur nearly every game.
5:15PM-I'm not in love with a whole lot more, however that could change.
It's hard not to take Morton at home - but the Pirates just don't seem to have the ability to score with RISP and haven't all season. See Red. Tough to take Peavy and the Giants - but they DO have the better bullpen so GTH Giants and under.
Corbin has been nothing special but the Reds just saw him two starts ago - they did score, and I don't get the Reds' love last night. Lamb was not very good in his lone start and if we're taking Arizona it's usually against a LHP - nobody sitting for the D-Backs - so by default it's Arizona, plus, as we saw last night Cincinnati just isn't playing good team baseball. An infield fly DP and challenging Votto's hit as a "catch or no catch" was semi desperation because it was obvious it was a catch.
If the Phillies just beat the Jays and Buerhle they can beat the Fish and Brad hand. I know there's the travel thing - but should the Fish, even over Philadelphia, be favored by that much? IMO, no.
If the total is climbing in the Cubs game one would think the Cubs RL is a winner. I hesitate with the Braves against a RHP because that's when they CAN score and it IS a small park - so I agree with the over. Might add that one.
Again, with the total going up in Colorado the Nationals RL might be worth doing.
Since Tomlin has had his one start - there's a real chance that the Yankees have a tough time of it. Cleveland gets Kipnis back and Nova has a two 102+ pitch games - the first time(s) he done that since coming back - lean UNDER here.
The money late this afternoon has come back on the Rangers, but I lean Tigers here. V-Mart well rested after playing in the IL games and sitting - Detroit usually fares better against LHP's - Perez had his moment in the sun against the Giants, IMO. F5 Tigers to keep their pen out of it.
Baltimore ought to win - ML parlay at that price.
The Royals played a tough series in Cincinnati - the aren't, as we know, as good against LHP, and Duffy is quite capable if implosion and serious control problems. I can take Boston.
The Astros game will be the most watched and perhaps the most bet on - tough not to take the veteran Archer over the kid McHugh, I imagine. I know lots of people will be on the over, and IMO if it DOES go over it's the Rays who win. Archer should at least NOT get killed, whereas McHugh CAN.
Pick Made: Aug 20 2015 9:27AM PST