Analysis:
8:10pm ET - 5:10pm PT / #973
NEW YORK YANKEES with Eovaldi @ HOUSTON ASTROS with Valasquez
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
This oner checks all of our boxes. In addition to two shaky starters and a favorable HIGH-scoring Umpire, this game classifies as what I call a ‘BTT Over’. That means that BOTH TEAMS are TRENDING a particular’ way as of late. In this case, both teams are trending OVER the TOTAL. The line opened at 8.5 runs. It might go up to 9 by the time first pitch gets here, so get your play in as soon as possible at the more favorable line of 8.5 runs.
We gotta start our query with the ‘Man in Blue’. Working behind the dish in Game Two of this American League series tonight will be KERWIN DANLEY. He’s currently ranked in the TOP TEN (#8 to be specific) in OVERS this season (out of 86 total Umpires). His year-to-date record coming into tonight’s game is 7-3 O/U (70% Overs). Overall combined runs per game for Danley is 9.3. He started the season with three straight OVERS. Then he went UNDER-UNDER in the beginning of May. Since then, Danley has gone 4-1 O/U in his last five games… with an average of 11.4 combined runs per game. His most recent game was in Tampa four days ago in a game between the Rays and Blue Jays. The OU line in that game was 7, and booth teams combined to almost DOUBLE that output (final score was 8 to 5).
In terms of tonight’s starting pitchers, we’re definitely not talking ‘ACES’ here. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. We’ll be scraping the bottom of the barrel with Nathan Eovaldi against Vincent Valasquez. Eovaldi’s hold on the #5 spot in the Yankees rotation is tenuous at best. Actually, he’s one more bad outing away from getting shit-canned from this rotation, which is actually at six pitchers as we speak. He comes in with an ERA of 4.95 on the year, a WHIP of 1.57, and a hits+walks average per 9 innings of 11.79. In his 14 starts this season, he’s gone 10-4 (10 OVERS / only 4 UNDERS). In terms of recent form, it’s even worse. In his last three starts, Eovaldi has a ERA of 8.56. He has gone OVER the Total in EVERY start since the middle of May (7-0 O/U last 7 starts!). His counterpart tonight will be rookie Vincent Valasquez. He has only three Major League starts under his belt. He has YET to see the 6th inning in ANY start. Average innings pitched per start for Valasquez has been only 4 and 1/3rd innings. In his only home start thus far, he allowed 9 hits and walks and 5 earned runs in only 4.2 innings. In that game versus the Rockies, the OU line was 8.5… and both teams combined to score 13 runs. He’ll be facing a Yankee’s team who’s offensive strength is OBVIOUSLY when they get to stack their lefty hitters (like tonight). To prove that point…
In their last ten games, the YANKEES are hitting .321 versus righties, with a whopping average of 7.1 runs per game (and 8-2 O/U in the process). In their last FIVE games, the Yankees are hitting .336 versus righties, with an average of 7.8 runs per game!
In the meantime, the ASTROS have done most of THEIR offensive damage against righties as well. On the year, Houston averages 4.8 RPG against righties and 4.1 RPG versus lefties. In their last ten games against righties, the Astros are even better (5.4 runs per game). Both of these teams have home run hitters GALORE. If we can get a couple of ‘dongs’ with men on base, then we should have no problem cashing our OVER winner.
‘BTT Over’ (both teams trending OVER) numbers…
The YANKEES are 6-0 O/U in their last six games versus righties… 8-0 O/U in Game Two of a series… 9-1-1 O/U on Fridays… 6-1 O/U with an OU line of 7-8.5 runs… 25-10 O/U off a loss… and 19-7 O/U away versus winning (> .500) opponents.
The ASTROS are 6-1-1 O/U in their last eight roles as a favorite… 10-3-1 O/U in their last 14 games overall.. 4-0 O/U in Game Two of a series… 5-1 O/U in their last six home games… 4-1-1 O/U on Fridays… 24-9-1 O/U in their last 34 games versus righties… and 6-2 O/U off a win.
Pick Made: Jun 26 2015 8:44AM PST