Analysis:
#958 / 8:10pm ET - 5:10pm PT
Chicago White Sox with Danks @ Minnesota Twins with Milone
2** Play on: MINNESOTA TWINS
The line in this AL Central game opened on the overnight line with the host Twins a favorite of -130. Since then, the line has gone up to a current line (as we type this) to -140 to -145. With the line rising, you’ll want to get your play in as SOON as possible. This is as good of a pitching mismatch that you’ll get on the Monday Major League schedule.
Lefty John Danks of the visiting White Six is one of the favorite ‘punching bags’ of all sharp Baseball bettors. Some say he is the absolute WORST starting pitcher in any current rotation in the American League. In fact, if you are a DAILY FANTASY player like I am, you’d also probably be smart to ‘STACK up’ a bunch of Minnesota Twins players in a multi-player Tourney tonight. Minnesota at home against a terrible southpaw pitcher is about as ‘money as it gets’. So in addition to a side play on the Twins, let’s create a DraftKings STACK that includes 3B Trevor Plouffe, OF Tori Hunter, 2B Brian Dozier, and C/IB Joe Mauer. Hunter and Mauer on particular have great career numbers versus Danks. Hunter is 17/52 with 4 HR’s (.327)… Mauer is 23/60 (.383)… Dozier is 6/15 (.400)… and Eduardo Nunez is 5/11 (.455).
Since this is a ‘lefty versus lefty’ pitching matchup, let’s look at each team’s tendencies versus southpaws. The TWINS are one of the league’s BEST teams against lefties this season. They’ve gone 16-10 versus southpaws with a strong average of 5.2 runs per game. That’s the 2nd highest ‘run per game’ average in the entire Major Leagues (behind Toronto’s 6.6 dog average). On the flip side, the White Sox have gone 4-8 versus lefties this season, with an average of only 2.3 offensive run per game. And yes, that 2.3 rpg average is WORST (#30) in all of baseball. So we’re talking complete ‘lefty vs lefty’ MISMATCH.
Danks comes in with a 5.16 ERA on the year. In his last three starts, it’s even WORSE at 6.35. In his career he’s faced the Minnesota Twins 10 times since the 2010 season. He’s gone 1-9 in those 10 starts with an ERA of 6.98.
Meanwhile, Tommy Milone of the host Twins comes in HOT. He’s of his second BEST start of the season. He just went 7 innings versus the mighty St Louis Cardinals and allowed only 1 earned run. Plus he had a 6-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his last three starts, Milone comes in with a fantastic ERA of only 2.36. He’s already faced the Whote Sox once this season. In that start, he threw 8 innings of SHUTOUT ball and allowed only TWO hits in an easy 6-0 win.
Pick Made: Jun 22 2015 9:04AM PST