Analysis:I got to take this one - I thought about it at 7.5 last night. Bet what you feel comfortable with. I'm betting them just a little smaller than normal til we get more data - as many of you know I don't like the 1-2-3 system, but I'll say it again because we have new client for MLB. In a perfect world, 1.5*, 2* and 2.5* is better because no bets should be 3x another one. My only hesitation is/was Hickox behind the plate. He's tends to be an under umpire and the Trop tends to be an under venue, but that's IMO why we can get a good number here. But, I think the players on the field will negate those things. In yesterdays' game, both teams had eight hits, a sign that they're swinging the bats. Between the two of them they only hit into one double play (the rally killer), had a guy thrown out at the plate, a guy picked off of first, and a runner thrown out trying to stretch a hit. And they still scored eight runs. The Rays used five relief pitchers and the Orioles four. I didn't understand why the Rays were initially favored here, and obviously now they're not - meaning they think Baltimore will score off of Karns. That move and the one to the under cannot (shouldn't) be correct, IMO. I do think Baltimore scores, though, since Karns just hasn't had a ton of big league experience. He's a strikeout pitcher but not a ground ball pitcher, so the Orioles should get their three runs here (a 3-3 game with a total of 7 is what we usually look for - meaning it's a push at worst). Chen is in his fourth year, and the Rays have seen tons of him - he gave up 23 bombs last season, 20 of them to right handed hitters. I thought that might be an issue, but the Rays will probably bat Guyer as the DH, and I thought that with Kiermaier in as a LHH that would cause me concern, but he's 2-5 off Chen with a HR. Not a huge sample, but he's not 0-5 with four K's. 13 different players had hits yesterday, so it wasn't just one guy - which is always important going forward. They both got timely hitting - going a combined 5-11 with runners in scoring position, another thing I look at quite a bit. Bottom line, unless Karns is a freak and Chen throws a three hit shutout, this one gets to 7 at some point. And again, the line move on the side says that Karns isn't a freak tonight. We may follow later, and will add more thoughts and/or plays, probably when the lineups come out.
FWIW I like the Reds at -105 at BetOnline tomorrow. Leake/Cole. My two favorite NBA plays are New Orleans and under in that same game. Sharp money, and enough to follow, on both. Split at worst IMO.
There is some reasonable money on the Padres. The weather in LA sucks - so I won't play the RL (the game has to go nine inning) but may add that one if we get this total. I have no good read on the Braves game. My gut says take Latos - but the Braves are being dissed, perhaps for good reason in the long run, but Wood has done well against Miami and Stanton in particular. Under, perhaps, if you need something to do. I think the move to the Rockies is a bit more than "scalping", which for those that don't know is taking the dog blindly. Now it's arbitrage - which means if you bet early you got Colorado at +140 and can now take Milwaukee at -130, which is a net zero at worst. It's done a lot. I am inclined to take Seattle first five innings. If I add any of these formally, later, they will be sans write ups, save perhaps a sentence or two.
If the Rockies game TOMORROW goes to 8 (the total) I'll take the over. Colorado owns Perlalta and I cannot imagine, even if he IS good (he's usually not), that Butler keeps whatever lineup Milwaukee has in check. DO need lineups after the game get going every day. It'd suck when Lucroy or Aramis sit, but obviously less of a chance this early in the season.
For anyone that just has baseball, I did just bet this one in the NBA, and still like the Pelicans game.
654 ATL / 653 PHOUNDER 201.5 BetOnline | |
Analysis: I got to put a marble on this based on the line move which is probably due to the Hawks leading scorer being out. Typically teams are a lot more deliberate when that happens - I do worry about defensive rotations, but it happens. |
Pick Made: Apr 7 2015 6:59AM PST