Analysis:1* Take San Antonio - Denver OVER (#515-516).
The Nuggets are going to
run with any team that doesn’t slow the pace down, particularly when they hit
the highway. That’s exactly what happened
at Portland this past weekend, a game where Denver scored 114 points and
lost. In other recent road games, Denver
hung 119 in Orlando, another game that flew Over the total by double digits. At Houston, they scored 108 but still lost
and failed to cover; an easy Over cash.
Against slower paced teams
like the Grizzlies and Jazz, Denver’s pace and efficiency numbers are way down –
hence the 84 they scored against the Jazz earlier this week in a game that stayed
Under by double digits. But when Melvin
Hunt’s team finds an opponent that is willing to pick up the pace like they are,
we’ve seen a consistent bevy of Over cashes from the Nuggets; 6-2 to the Over
in their last eight tries in games totaled at 200 or higher.
That includes the Nuggets
most recent matchup with the Spurs.
Denver lost 120-111 as the game flew Over the total by 25.5 points. But Coach Hunt has no intention of changing
his gameplan this time around. "We're going to play as hard as we
can against San Antonio. We're going to bring everything that we have to the
table to try to win a game. There is no mantra or rally cry or 'run through the
tape.' There's none of that. We're going to play hard. If we play hard and play
together, we'll find wins." Make no
mistake about it – playing hard for Denver means playing fast.
Greg Popovich is no stranger to fast paced play, and the
Spurs tremendous offensive efficiency numbers ensure that we won’t need a truly
frenetic pace to cash this Over bet. The
Spurs have been facing slower paced teams for the last week, like Miami,
Memphis and Dallas. But we saw San
Antonio hang 130 on OKC on this floor just last week. And prior to this recent stretch of slower
paced foes, the Spurs were 9-2 to the Over in their previous eleven ballgames,
consistently outpacing the market.
Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have
reached 208 points or more. Expect
another high scoring affair in San Antonio this evening. Take
the Over.
Pick Made: Apr 3 2015 7:25AM PST