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906 PIT / 905 NYM Over 7.5 William Hill
double-dime bet
Analysis:#905 / 7:05pm ET - 4:05pm PT NEW YORK METS with Degrom @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES with Cumpton2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL (7.5)77% 'OVERS' for the entire season! That's the current percentage for tonight's Man in Blue who will be working Game Two of the Mets / Pirates series. The home plate Umpire tonight will be LAZ DIAZ... who is one of our favorite 'OVER' guys in the last 3 seasons. Of all Major League Baseball Umpires who have worked 10 or more games behind the dish, Diaz comes in tied as the 3rd BEST 'Over' guy... with an overall record of 10-3 O/U. In fact, the last time a DIAZ game went Under the Total was way back on May 5th (7 weeks ago). In that time frame, Diaz has gone a PERFECT 6-0-1 O/U in his last seven games. Average combined runs scored in that 7-game stretch has been 9.4 RPG. That's about 3 runs higher than tonight's current OU line of 7.5 runs. In National League play this season, Diaz has gone 3-1-1 O/U. The irony for Diaz is that he worked this EXACT SAME pitching matchup four weeks ago. On May 26th, these same two pitchers (Degrom and Cumpton) faced each other with Diaz behind the dish... and that one also went OVER the Total. Diaz has been Major League Baseball's best OVER Umpire over the last two seasons in all games... going 48-29-4 O/U. That includes 24-12-2 O/U (67% Overs) in all 'Righty vs Righty' pitching matchups.We're not talking 'Top of the Rotation' starters here. More like 'Bottom of the Rotation'. Yes, Jacob Degrom of the Mets has a decent 3.75 ERA on the season. But while's he's been a great DAY pitcher (1.35 ERA in daytime starts), he's 's**t the bed' in his NIGHT starts (5.46 ERA). And while he's looked pretty good at home (2.49 ERA)... he has looked TWICE as bad on the road (5.16 ERA). On the flip side, Brandon Cumpton of the host Pirates comes in with a 4.93 ERA on the season. Average combined runs in his eight starts has been 9.50. We were on the Mets 'OVER' 7.5 runs in their Wednesday night game against the Oakland Athletics. Final score was 8 to 5 (13 total runs). The game was already OVER by the 6th inning. A look at each team's offensive numbers in their last five games overall seals the deal. The visiting METS are hitting .299 in their last five games versus right-handed starters. Average runs scored for the Mets in those games has been 5.76. Meanwhile, the host PIRATES have struggled in their last five games vs southpaws (.143 and only 0.73 RPG)... but in games vs RIGHTIES, the Buccos are averaging 5.97 runs-per-game. Mets have gone 5-1 O/U in their last five games versus a starter with a WHIP of > 1.30. Pirates gave gone 5-1-1 O/U on Fridays... 5-1 O/U after allowing 2 < runs in their previous game.. and 5-1 O/U in Game two of a series.Pick Made: Jun 27 2014 8:47AM PST
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