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926 KAN / 925 ANA Over 8.5 Pinnacle
double-dime bet
Analysis:I doubt this goes to 8, but we can wait if we want. IMO better chance of going to 9 than 8. OK, first things' first. Vargas is simply over rated, and more so here because the Angels saw TONS of him when he was with the Mariners, not to mention he spent last year with the Angels. So, collectively they've got 172 at bats against him and spent time in the clubhouse with him. This season Vargas' HOME ERA is 4.21 and opposing hitters are batting .280 against him (as opposed to 1.75/2.17 on the road). He's also allowed 8 bombs in 62 innings at Kaufman. So, the Angels get their half, IMO. Shoemaker has some street cred, however, he threw 112 pitches last time out and it's supposed to be hot as hell in Kansas City tonight. That also mean the ball should carry, and there's supposed to be a decent breeze blowing out to left. The Royals have seen Shoemaker before, which obviously helps, and he's (Shoemaker) got an ERA almost two full runs higher on the road, not to mention LHH's are hitting .283 against him, and KC should have at least four of them in the lineup. As far as pens go, and I don't think we'll need them, the Royals at home this season have a team ERA of 4.65 while the Angels over the last week have a bullpen ERA of 5.94. Just far too many ways both these teams get to four, making this a winner.Pick Made: Jun 27 2014 4:27AM PST
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