Analysis:
914 Chicago White Sox at Baltimore
Thanks to the reputation of Camden Yards, we get an inflated total between a couple of southpaws as Chris Sale and Wei-Yin Chen do battle in Monday's series opener between the White Sox and Orioles. Recently, we read an interesting article about Chris Sale lowering the usage of his slider in an effort to stay healthy. It's been said that sliders have the most negative effect on a pitcher's elbow health and Sale has faced a few scares lately. As a result, Sale is using more changeups than ever before and pulling out the slider in rare instances. The Orioles are 11.3 runs below average against changeups this season and they've yet to face Sale since he made that change. Sale rarely threw the changeup in the past, so it should be a very effective weapon for him.
Overall, Sale is just one of the game's elite pitchers. This season, he's posted a 2.20 ERA, a 2.18 FIP, a 2.53 xFIP, and a 2.31 SIERA. Those are eye-popping numbers. He is striking out nearly 31 percent of opposing batters with a walk rate of just 4.1 percent, both of which are career highs, even with the reduced usage of the slider, which is commonly one of the most reliable strikeout pitches. Sale has a 7.5 K/BB ratio, which is ridiculous. What's more impressive is that his K/BB ratio is actually better against righties than it is against lefties, though he has struck out 41.5 percent of lefties faced. He's elite and the Orioles have very limited experience against him.
Though he doesn't get anywhere near the accolades that Sale gets, Wei-Yin Chen is improving as a pitcher in his third season in the States. Chen's anemic 3.5 percent walk rate is a major asset when pitching at Camden Yards where walks turn into multi-run homers. More changeups and two-seamers have led to more ground balls and that, along with a 5/1 K/BB ratio has been a positive development.
The White Sox rank 20th in OPS against lefties with a wRC+ of 86, which ranks 25th. Current White Sox have a 44 plate appearance sample size against Chen. Five of Chen's seven starts at Camden Yards have been quality starts and he has pitched really well in June with a 2.13 ERA over 25.1 innings and a 10/1 K/BB ratio and a .211 batting average against.
PLAY: CWS/BAL UNDER
Pick Made: Jun 23 2014 4:45AM PST