“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY AUGUST 2nd, 2011
VEGAS-RUNNER’S VALUE TOP 10 LIST + MONEY METER…MLB & MMA !!
The sports books continue to report low volume coming from recreational bettors in MLB and the majority of action is coming in the form of parlays as they await the upcoming football season. This means the MLB market is saturated with sharp money at the moment and because of that, we’re seeing more “true lines” than we are “fair lines”.
This pattern should continue until the end of the season when many more recreational bettors enter the market in search of action via football. Since they’ll be in the habit of wagering, they’ll cross over into MLB especially when the post-season begins.
Until then, the market will be aimed at limiting value for sharp bettors since the public won’t help limit the books exposure. Therefore, perception will be less of a factor and actual data will instead carry more weight for oddsmakers.
In the MMA/Boxing betting markets where public money out-weighs wise guy money, we should continue to see perception as the main driving force behind prices.
We’ll begin to add college and pro football teams to the list very soon but this week MLB and MMA will be receiving the bulk of the action and that’s where we’ll look to uncover some value.
TOP 5 OVER-VALUED TEAMS :
1.) TITO ORTIZ
As much as I’m a fan or Ortiz and actually took the value on his against Bader, his stock has never been higher…Even as a dog of +350 the line reflects an over reaction to that win because he was an even bigger dog against a lesser opponent last time around…He already beat Evans on the judges score cards and due to Rashad’s inactivity, books expect and have prepared to receive money on Tito.
2.) ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Now 3.5 games out of 1st place in the NL Central, a $100 bettor is down almost a nickel this season even though they’re 5 games above .500...Only a .500 team on the road but as long as they’re in this race, odds makers will continue to charge a premium to back them.
3.) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
They’re 3 games under .500 on the season but still only 4.5 games out of 1st place in the AL Central…With a negative run differential and a losing record at home, they’ll continue to cost bettors money since they attract plenty of action at the betting counter.
4.) TAMPA BAY RAYS
High-profile team that won’t be making the post-season so the motivation to win isn’t as high as the betting lines usually reflect…They have a losing record at Home but continue to be offered as a big favorite since bettors continue to back them…With little to play for, unless the price is right I’d definitely avoid the Rays.
5.) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
That’s correct, after spending MONTHS on the under-valued list the Pirates have now crossed over…Reason is simple, they are now 5.5 games out of 1st place after dropping 7 of their L/10 games and if they continue to fall I expect them to lose that confidence they’ve been playing with all season…They’ve received a ton of attention on this season’s success and odds makers have been forced to adjust…That adjustment along with mind-set has extracted the value that’s been there prior.
TOP 5 UNDER-VALUED :
1.) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Only 1 game separates them and the Giants for the top spot in the NL West but they rarely attract much attention from the media or the bettors…They’re 11 games above .500 this season and sport a winning record at home and on the road…With a +28 run differential they’ll continue to offer value as long as odds makers send them out discounted.
2.) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
An afterthought in the AL East and definitely no chance at the post-season, but they’ve made their backers some money this season…They have a positive run differential and still seem motivated due to youth…As long as bettors continue to fade them or pass, odds makers will continue to make them the value side.
3.) NY METS
Like the Jays, they’re in a division with 2 of the best teams in MLB…Even though they’re only 1 game above .500 this season, only 3 teams in the NL have made their backers more money…They’ve got a positive run differential and a winning record on the road where they are almost always the listed dog.
4.) CLEVELAND INDIANS
Still in the mix at 2 games behind the Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central…Only the Yanks have produced more profit for their supporters this season but bettors aren’t in any rush to back them…As long as they stay in the race and are sent out discounted, they’ll continue to make cash tickets and make money at the window.
5.) LA ANGELS
After falling behind in the division race they are now only 2 games out of 1st in the AL West…They’re the 4th most profitable team in the AL but get very little attention even though they are 9 games above .500 this season…With a winning record at home and on the road, it’s surprising that bettors don’t back them very often…Because of their anonymity they’ll continue to be offered at a discount.
MONEY-METER : 75% SHARP and 25% PUBLIC
The recreational bettors are saving their bankrolls for the upcoming football season and the action is mostly coming from wise guys and other pros…Even though there’s a ton of talk on the football lines posted, books report that like MLB, it’s mostly sharp money that’s being wagered…Few recreational bettors are willing to tie up a large portion of their bankrolls on future bets or season win totals.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck in the week ahead, Vegas-Runner.
Thanks Fazz...with the football season coming, I think it's so important that every bettor create a list for each week !!
Outstanding information - a must read!!