FREE "Early" PICKS :
Allright Fellas...I think that after 3 weeks of creating the "Morning Moves" Newsletter...and putting the right game-plan together, while setting up some good parameters to decide on an Offical Best Bet (65% ATS)...it is now time to make sure that all of the "Early Info" goes to good use...
And after some consideration, I've come to the decision that I will pass along the "Early Bets" that I feel offer some Value...but didn't quite meet the parameters to become official 2* Bets for Subscribers...to all of the Pregame Forum Members...
What I have tried to do with the Newsletter besides pass along all of the knowledge and experience that I've gained in all my years in this racket...is to pass along the BEST BET from the "Early Info" that I gather...
And we've had success with this which is huge because many times, I wouldn't be able to use these positions later in the day for my Daily Premium Card...But now, because the Newsletter assures that my Subscribers get it early...I've been able to isolate that Best Bet that I make and pass that along to them...
But what I've noticed is that after doing this...there is always a position/s that came close to making the cut, but because I have really focused on being extremely selective this year...I pass on it as an Official Bet for Subscribers...
Now many times, as the day goes on...these leans become official bets for my Premium Card, while other times they don't...
So what I want to do, since so many of you guys capp your own games and are up early gathering information...is pass along those plays to the Forum as FREE PICKS...
I will try to do this on most days...although at times it won't be possible because I'm just too busy...But when I'm able to, just like I do with the Twitter Information...I will have these FREE PICKS available in the forum by 1-1:30pm est...
For Monday, the board was small and I really was able to isolate that Best Bet without having many other leans so early...Otherwise, I would have already passed them along this morning...But with a bigger board on Tuesday, I'm hoping to be able to get this going...
Let me know if you think this is a good idea and if you think that you can use this info, otherwise...I don't want to waste my time or yours because there is so much to get done each day before finalizing my card...But if you think you can use it, then I'm willing to pass it along and see how it goes...Thanks and Best of Luck, VR
"MORNING MOVES" TOPICS for NEWSLETTERS :
Allright Fellas...I said that I would get a Blog Post up...where my Subscribers can pass along some of the Topics that they may want to see discussed in the Daily Newsletters...Or some questions that you may want to see answered or have me research...
So here's your chance...Now ask away and don't be shy...Trust me, a day didn't go by that I wasn't in the office of the handicappers when I was moving "steam"...firing question after question...Many times, the same ones...to different guys so I can get various perspectives before creating my own conclusions...So Fire Away...VR
Hi VR -
As an avid reader of your Morning Moves newsletter, I really appreciate all of the valuable information that you pass along.
I was curious though, as we are appoaching NFL and NCAAF season, if you were planning on, or would be able to address any betting theory/strategies/systems for both sports.
Granted it's a completely different situation althogether, but I was so impressed with the systems that you passed along for MLB, that I was wondering if you had anything similar to that for NFL and NCAAF
Personally, this will be my first FULL season of NFL and NCAAF betting, and therefore any and all information that you could pass along would be GREATLY appreciated.
Thanks PJ...And it's because of gentlemen like yourself that I am willing to pass along some of the concepts and methods that have taken me years to put together...
In fact, since MLB is probably the most "stat" driven sport...as far as handicapping and finding profitable positions...I plan on opening up years of "notes" for you guys and teaching you some of the valuable systems that I've learned through the years...
From "power-rating offenses"...to breaking down "bull-pens", ect...I really think you guys are going to get so much out of the info that I have planned to pass along over the MLB season...
And I have NO doubt that anyone willing to put in the work...will find that with this information alone...they will be able to beat the books in MLB over the long-run...
Thanks again for all your support and it's a privilage and an honor to work with such stand up people...VR
Thank you so much for taking the time to respond to my inquiry.
I really appreciate the information, and again, I wanted to thank you for all the knowledge that you have been passing along in your newsletters. Personally, I find your newslettes to be an invaluable resource, and look forward to it daily.
Thank you again,
Thanks so much for taking the time to pass along such awesome topics...I promise you that I am constantly looking at this thread and writing down many of the ideas that you have and we will definitely cover them eventually...With doing a Newsletter each day, we will have more than enough time to get to them all...So please, don't take it personally if we haven't covered your topic yet...I had gotten so many emails when we first launched the Newsletters that I'm still working on covering some of those..and adding some from here along the way...While also trying to cover some of the current topics that we are dealing with at the time...Final 4, MLB, ect...I am so amped up to see that you guys are getting as much, if not more out of them than I could have ever hoped for...It's an awesome feeling being able to pass along so much that I have learned thotugh the years...Thank you all so much, VR
PC...excellent question and these day's there are so many charts available online that you can print-out and use as a reference to make it much quicker...And I won't lie, these day's...I use a chart or memory from doing this for so long...But back in the day, when we didn't have access to computers like we do now...I had to figure all of this stuff out by hand for every match-up...in every sport...Doing it with "Point-Spreads", which had to be converted to "Money Lines" took a little more work...But below is the formula that I always used to figure out MLB and other "ML" sports...VR
AMOUNT YOU NEED to WIN $1.00 / (AMOUNT YOU NEED TO WIN A $1.00 +1) = Favorites Percentage
1 / (AMOUNT WON WHEN WAGERING $1.00 + $1.00) = Underdogs Percentage
I'm a huge fan of your Morning Moves newsletter, and had a question for you regarding something that you mentioned in yesterday's newsletter, and was hoping that you could please enlighten me on.
Yesterday, you mentioned, "that if the true odds of Team A beating Team B are 70%, then that translates to a money line of -233."
My question is, how do you make that calculation, or in other words, could someone please enlighten me as to the formula to determine the win probablity in relation to the money line? Even more specifically, how did you calculate that the true odds of 70% equals a money line of -233?
I can absolutely see how by knowing how to calucate this, it will help to uncover any value (especially in MLB), but since I'm still learning the ropes, I was hoping that someone could assist me with this.
Thanks again, and I must say that your wealth of sports betting knowledge, theories and concepts have been a huge resource and asset to me as I continue to build my personal sports betting foundation.
VR. Just wanna say, u da man! Good luck in the tourney, ill be rollin with you. Stay hott and gl.
thought of another topic
do you think the books take into account special "situations" like revenge games, look aheads, let downs, sandwich games, etc. when they set lines?
I thought of a topic that you may or may not want to talk abount in a newsletter. In regards to NBA, do the books adjust over under lines based on recent outcomes?
For example, if there have been several days that a lot of unders have hit, or several days where a lot of overs have hit, will the books set the totals higher or lower then they normally would for a day or two to try and have the opposite happen?
Like if the over has been hitting a lot in nba totals for a few days in a row, will the books start to set the totals a point or two higher in anticipation of bettors just taking the over because of a perceived trend that is developing?
Awesome stuff in the newsletter. I still cant believe you crank one out every single day! We are lucky. Any chance to get the archived issues? I missed a coule and would love to put a notebook together to refer back to. Thanks for all the help.
VR, one thing I think should be addressed for the people that are new to you or you way of capping is PATIENCE. You have discussed money management often in the last couple weeks but I feel you are missing something. You mention don't try and win it back the way you lost it, but if people are listening to you and lost doing what they are supposed to do, then they have to win it back that way. Also most people start with a relatively small bankroll and follow who is hot. So after your HOT January and beginning of February I'm sure you gained many new clients. If any of them started with smaller bankrolls the last 2 - 3 weeks may have wiped them out. So when you say stay the course it is far more difficult for many. About the time they stop following you is when you will catch fire again and they will not recoup because they didn't have the capital to stay in. When they save and have a new bankroll they will find another capper that is HOT, and the cycle repeats. I believe that is another MAJOR reason gamblers lose. Please address this in the Morning Moves or just a Forum post would be nice.
Thanks for the kind words above VR. I have greatly enjoyed the Betting %'s topics this week. Those are an incredible tool to use. I look forward to more in depth analysis on these in future Morning Moves. I have found some "triggering" % from my research and would love to know if you have certain parameters that you use as well. Good Luck VR.
Vr, I enjoy reading the morning moves very much. I wanted to ask you if you thought there was more value in games that a have true line or a fair line. For instance today I think OKC,LAL,Mich,FLA,Clemson,Wyoming games were opened with true lines. While I think S.Miss,Marquette games were opened with Fair Lines.
I have been reading your stuff for over ayear now and it is all top notch. A true education in sports betting. I remember you saying awhile back that you like to read books at nice before bed. I am reading a great one(for the second time) and there is a ton of info in it that relates to what you say in your blogs/posts/articles. It is a book on the psych of stock trading, but so much of it relates to sports betting if you transfer it over to the sports betting markets. I just wanted to recommend it to you cause i thought you might want to read it when you have time.
Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglass it is on amazon
thanks for everything
Especially your second idea is great Brick. I totally agree that that would help a lot. It will make us see the thought process of a pro. Really nice idea.
That said, your first idea got my vote too!