Allright fellas...forgive me for getting today's "TRUE STEAM" up a bit later than usual...But I had the opportunity to gather some more information and took advantage of it because we have a great board to work with tonight and I want to make sure that I use every source of information that we have access to...
Which is exactly what I did for tonight's isolated bet...This is a play that my own Ratings/Numbers support the most and should make tonight's Premium Card...
So let's get right to it...and see if we can cash this one tonight...
NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Tuesday 1-5-09 :
1.) PISTONS opened +9....Now +8.5
Once again we have a "Steam Play" which is very easy to miss, due to the fact the adjustment made by the books looks minor...But nothing could be further from the truth, and I'll explain why...CRIS opened this game up at 9, and more importantly...PINNY opened it up at -9 (+100)...And the Outfits went to work, buying up all the DET +9 that was out there...What is really telling about the Pinny line is that it appears they didn't want the Outfits taking the points with them, which isn't what you would expect, since the betting public is expected to come in heavy on Dallas...And this is one of those games, where they can expect some "volume"...So it appears that at 9, the books felt the public would be taking the worst of it for sure...But what they didn't plan on, was the Wiseguys coming in so strong...Because I can tell you for fact, that this is a big position for the Outfits, which may even grow some...And they are the ONLY reason that this line hasn't gone the other way, up to -10...in anticipation of what's to come, as soon as the public bettors begin to get down for tonight...Finally, we can be pretty sure that the Wiseguys love this position, because they could have very easily sat back and waited on those public bettors to possibly give them even more value on this play...But as soon as one of those Betting Syndicates showed their hand...the rest decided to join the party and go to work...This is why we are now looking at -8.5, all across the board, even at Bodog...which caters to public money...VR
LINE PREDICTION : As I stated up top, my own Ratings/Numbers show that this line is still too high at 8.5...And I'm surprised the Wiseguys haven't come back for more yet, and forced the books to drop it some more...Because even though their position is significant already, there is still plenty of value there...But what we may be seeing, is them showing a little patience...by allowing the public money to begin coming in on the fav, which just may get them +9 again...I wouldn't be surprised if the books went ahead and adjusted later in the day, but if they do...then it will most likely prompt the Outfits to do some more "shopping"...
Bottom line...I would lock up any +9 that comes up, because unless there is an change in the line-up...I don't think that even all that public money is going to drive the line up above that opening number...
And if you feel that myself and the Wiseguys are on the wrong side...Then I would go ahead and wait, just in case another "Buy-Order" goes out...Because right now, it's at -8.5...So even if the books were to adjust it back up to the "opener", you wouldn't be losing much value at all...But if it were to get to 8, you would be actually gaining some extra value for sure...VR
Thanks again fellas for all your support...We have a great board to work with tonight...Which is packed with my favorite type of match-ups..."PRIME-TIME"...So let me get back to work, and put together another kick-ass card for tonight's action...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.