Allright fellas...I'm glad we waited a little while before launching our Daily NBA/CBB "True Steam" Blog...Because it allowed me more time to get a good grip of how the books are dealing with "early" Wiseguy money...And based on how they handle it, since I worked for those Betting Syndicates for so many years...I usually know how they will respond and approach it...
Last Night we Won our "5th" Straight "True Steam" Bet since Friday...And "4" of those were absolutely FREE...
We are now "30-13" (70% ATS) for the Entire Season...and "25-8" (76% ATS) over the L/7 Weeks...
And as much as I want to work hard on producing winners for you guys...I also want to make sure that this Blog is passing a\long good information for other cappers to use not only in their daily work...but more importantly, to ALL their work because these are concepts that very few discuss...Even though they are by far the most critical when it comes to sports betting...
Because after all...it's a betting market...And like any other market, it all comes down to "Price"...
And my goal for these Blogs has always been to try and give you a ring-side seat to exactly what and how these Betting Syndicates...who make their money year in and year out beating the books...approach this racket...
From the responses I've seen...you guys seem to be really getting it...And I'm amazed at the level of "reasoning" that you guys are at...Because back in the day, bettors just weren't that knowledgable or sophisticated...
And there just weren't any Winning/Sharp sports bettors that were willing to share any of those secrets behind their success...
Now let's move on to Tonight's "True Steam" Bet...and see if we can make it "6" in a Row...VR
NBA "TRUE STEAM" for TUESDAY 12-22-09
1.) SIXERS opened +3.5....Now +1.5
Tonight's "True Steam" Bet is different than last night's...And I want to continue trying to isolate some different manuevers made by the Outfits, so that you are able to see just how many different ways they try to get the most out of their bets...And this is one of those "moves"...
When CRIS brought the line out for tonight's game, yesterday late afternoon at 3.5....the Wiseguys immediately let them know that it was too high, and went ahead and grabbed the points with Philly...But they didn't bet them again when the line was adjusted down to 3, so all the other books felt safe to bring their opening line out for this game at 3...And that is where it stayed throughout last night...But then early this morning, with so many more "Outs" offering a line on the game...the Wiseguys went to work right away and started buying up all the Philly +3, +2.5, & +2 that was available off-shore, here in Vegas, and through other bookmakers across the country...In fact, this was a pretty significant move from what I've been told...and more importantly, it appears that a handful of Wiseguys agreed...Because we saw that the "move" was forced by a couple of different Outfits...Now this is one of those plays that the Wiseguys could have sat back, and possibly allowed the "public" bettors to take Wash, and force an adjustment upwards...Giving them even more points with the Sixers...But like I said, apparently after their handicappers did some more work on this match-up over night...it appears that nobody wanted to miss out...So as soon as one of these Outfits started betting, the rest came out to join the party...Which is why we are now looking at -1.5 all across the board...VR
LINE PREDICTION : I am interested in seeing whether or not the Wiseguys will send out another "Buy-Order" at +1.5...Because if they do, the books will be forced to adjust...And if they go ahead and over-adjust, like they've been doing...we may see the Wiseguys force this line to "cross-over"...That is a planned strategy employed many times by these Betting Syndicates, when the game is around "Pick'em"...Because the adjustments made, many times allows these Syndicates to end up with BOTH teams in the match-up as "Dogs"...And I've said it countless times on these blogs, that it's something they love getting...But so far, I haven't heard of any plan for another "Buy-Order"...Although that don't mean anything because it's very early and these guys are hard at work as I write this...The books are obviously hoping that the betting public bails them out some, by betting on the Wizards...And that would mean this game would go off at -2...What you need to look out for, from here on in...is where this line goes...Because if it drops even more, then you can be sure that this is one of the BIGGEST POSITIONS of the day for the Wiseguys...And then I would wait for the line to come back up some, because they will attempt a "Middle" before tip-off...Otherwise, like I said above, we will probably see this one go off at 2...VR
I was really glad to see that one of the "early moves" which was supported by my own Ratings/Lines allowed us to discuss a different type of bet made by the Wiseguys...Because what we saw here was that the opening number was a bit too high compared to what the Wiseguys had...But there weren't enough "outs" available at 3.5...So they got a chance to do some handicapping, and then came back this morning and took a much more significant position...And so far, we've seen none of the Outfits even look to attempt a middle...
Thanks again for all your support fellas, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner.
ALL I CAN SAY IS WOW WHAT A NIGHT..
EXCUSE ME I GOT A HEADACHE WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT ALL ABOUT
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hey roll,is hard for me to grasp too but i think i understand.they're betting on the sixers at +3.5 all the way down to +2 expecting the public to bet the wizards pushing the line even further down to lets say a pick,then they come back and bet the same amount on the wizards at pick.wizards win by 1 point they win both bets,not that uncommon in the nba.wizards win by two they push at sixers+2 but win both bets at sixers+2.5and 3.so all they are risking is the vig to win both bets,i suspect with all the close games the wizards have been playing lately,thats why they chose this game.am i right VR OR AM I MISSING IT
VR ---- I'm sure you know this already because you know most everythign but, a lot of the public is on the Sixers also because of one of the John Morrison system plays.
If you are able to bet both teams as dogs you can win both bets. You have to be on it though. Lets say Team A is +2 and team B is +1.5 and team B wins by 1 you win both bets...
Thanks d frank,
But by "syndicates" I mean wise guys...so...
Why would the wise guys want to have both teams as dogs? I don't see the value there.
I think i have the answer for rolll_tide's question here. The books decided they set the line too high and decided to try to persuade the public to split their picks so they could even out things and take what juice money they could.
Can you explain to me why the "syndicates" like getting both teams as dogs. For instance, Wizards +1 and Philly +1...One team will lose which cancels out the other..or am I completely missing something here?
The Wiz iz only `1-7 ats as a favorite. So that's a nice little extra edge here.