NFL "TRUE STEAM"..."20-8" (71% ATS) the L/6 Wks !!

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NFL "TRUE STEAM"..."20-8" (71% ATS) the L/6 Wks !!

Allright gentlemen...Last week was the first week without NCAAFB this season...And although I worked on trying to isolate some "True Steam" in the NFL...the truth was, I wasn't going to force anything just for the sake of selling a pick...And I wasn't going to put out a blog with selections, that weren't backed up by my own Ratings/Numbers...Because it's with those Ratings, that we've been able to produce such profitable results for this blog...

So what I did was simply monitor the line moves throughout the entire week...Wait to see how the Wiseguys were going to approach the fact that there was no NCAAFB, and that the books were holding back a handful of lines...And finally, spoke with those whose information I use to put this blog together...to try and figure out the best way to continue getting this valuable information to you guys...

I think I figured it out...and what we will do from here on out...is to wait until Thursday, rather than Tuesday...to public this blog...

Because this late in the season...due to the weather, injuries, and fear of the Outfits...the sportsbooks aren't willing to put out lines for every game early in the week...And more importantly for us, because the books have even chosen to put a "circle" around most games in question...to limit betting action and their risk...it's more beneficial to wait until later in the week...

Reason being...because that's exactly what the Wiseguys/Runners that I spoke with say they are doing...Because they prefer to wait, until more "outs" make the lines available...and also increase the betting limits...before they are willing to tip their hand, and let the books know where they believe they've made mistakes...

So you can look forward to me continuing to do this blog until the post-season...And I am just about ready, to launch the Daily Basketball Blog as well...

Without any further delay, let's get to this week's "moves"...VR

 

NFL "TRUE STEAM" for WEEK 15 :

 

1.) UNDER SF/PHI....Opened 44.5....Now 42.5

This is one of those games that the books didn't offer a line on until Tuesday afternoon, due to the fact the 49ers were playing on MNF...But even when they did, the books went ahead and put a "circle" around the game...to limit their liability on the number they were going to hang up...That didn't stop the Wiseguys, who immediately saw the VALUE in Under 44.5...And within 30 minutes after opening this Total, CRIS had moved down to 43...And we all know after reading this blog all these weeks...lol...that this is a "Huge Move" based on the fact the books crossed over a "Key Total" (44)...More important, is that the Wiseguys still weren't finished...They came back and bet UNDER 43...forcing yet another adjustment...down to 42.5, where we are now seeing this total at...all across the board...And once again, the books felt enough "Steam"...to cross over yet another "Key Total" of 43...VR

LINE PREDICTION : The first thing I did this morning before getting all the info together for this blog...is call a friend or 2 in Philly, and ask them to please get me an accurate weather report for Sunday's game...And from what they tell me, SNOW is in the forcast...That is where this really gets tricky because as I mentioned on this week's Video Pod-Cast for this match-up...SNOW if the one thing that forces a ridiculous adjustment on totals...Because the betting public over-reacts to the information and almost automatically bets the game UNDER...This is why I believe we may see this line drop some more...Which would really be huge because then they would be crossing another "Key Total"...42, or worse 41...And that would really take a lot of the Value away from this bet...Bottom Line, I don't think this one ever comes back up, even with the public seeming to like the Over...according to some sources...So if you are going to follow the Outfits on this one, I recommend doing it now...and better yet, if you can take advantage of those books who offer FREE 1/2 Pts before the weekend...then this would be the perfect bet to use it on...Taking the Total back to Under 43, and gaining some true value from that "Key Total"...If you plan on fading the Wiseguys in this spot...then wait until game-day, because you may see a number below 40...VR

 

2.) TAMPA BAY opened +8.5....Now +6.5

This is one of those "line moves" that tell us the Wiseguys believe the oddsmakers and bookmakers were way off on their opening number...Because the Outfits could have very easily waited for the betting public to drive this line up even higher...Since not only was it already above the "Key Number" of 7...but more importantly, you can be sure that the majority of recreational bettors will be on Seattle come game-day...And with the threat of teaser bets...the books would have had no problem raising the line...But instead, the Outfits jumped on TBay right away...And CRIS, who was the first to put a line up on this game...dropped it all the way below the "Key Number" of 7...in less than "6 MINUTES"...And within those 6 minutes, the rest of the offshore books that decided to offer the game at 7...were also forced to adjust down to 6.5...Because the Syndicates were definitely BUYING up all the TBay that they could...And it appears that none of these Outfits wanted to be left out of the party, because they all got down...As of today, we are looking at 6.5 across the board...But there are a handful of 7's at those books that don't cater to Wiseguys, and even a few 6's at those spots that do...VR

LINE PREDICTION : Truth is, this play was almost my TRUE STEAM GOW...Because not only do my Ratings show that the Outfits did the right thing by betting the Bucs...but I also know that you guys would have no problem getting a good number on this game...even if you had to wait until game-day to do it...rather than be forced to buy the hook, if you don't have access to those books still using 7...Reason being, I think that even with all the Wiseguy money on TBay...the Public money that will be bet on Seattle by kick-off, will exceed it...And that should force the books to come back to 7, and possibly just play with the vig depending on whether the Outfits feel like getting involved again...Finally, the opportunity for a profitable "middle" is already there...and yet, none of these Syndicates who bet +8, +7.5, or even +7...have made any move to attempt it...Which is huge, since I've seen this line already as low as 6...If you like what the Wiseguys are selling, then I say grab the 7 now...or wait until game-day if you can't do so...But if you think the "Steam" is wrong on this one...then I would look to lay Seattle now, since you can get them at less than a TD...VR

 

Now there are a handful of other "moves" for this week's NFL Match-ups...But I only chose those 2 that my own Ratings/Numbers showed to still offer up the most betting value...

And then I chose a 3rd one...which I feel offers up the BIGGEST "Value" BET, out of all the "Early Moves" so far...based on my work...

I went ahead and Uploaded it as the NFL "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK...

Hope you guys enjoy the information...and please feel free to add to it, and to pass along any questions or comments that you may have...Because this is a handicapping tool that I want us all to share and benefit from...And the best way to do that, is by sharing our information...and opinions...

Thanks again and best of luck, Vegas-Runner...

 

  • Opps   Thank you!!!!!

  • MIMI....his Tampa steam was TWO WEEKS ago....

  • Vegas My pool line is +1.5 for Tampa. Would you still concider it at that line?

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  • Thanks Fellas...and I totally agree, this Tampa Bay team is terrible...But what the Wiseguys did by making this Bet...is not say that Tampa Bay is good...Instead, they simply said that they shouldn't have been getting over a TD...

    Remember, to them...it has very little to do with the teams, and has everything to do with the number...

    A perfect example is the Cleveland Browns & Washington Redskins...2 VERY BAD TEAMS...

    But when the Oddsmakers over-adjusted for that "perception"...they both went on a profitable ATS run...

    I know that I approach this a bit differently than most handicappers...and that's because I spent the majority of my life bookmaking, and then moving "steam" for guys that ONLY think along those lines...

    So for me, it always simply comes down to the "PRICE"...and not the team...

    Because if you were to bet the Browns or the Redskins this year...You would be Up more money than you would be betting DALLAS or NEW ENGLAND...

    And that's why I always say...this is a "Numbers Game"...Nothing more, nothing less...

    Best of Luck fellas, VR

  • NFL is the most public of sports - which means steam is a smaller % of overall action.

  • Great stuff. People definitely over react to snow.  Anyone remember the Titans/Patriots game?? Total was dropping by the 2nd and gae went over in the first half with NE the only team scoring.  

  • Tampa is a horrible horrible team!  They are terrible on the road and even worse on the west coast, with that said, they struggle worse against good running teams.  Seattle is the 3rd worse rushing team in the league.  My initial lean was toward Seattle giving less than a TD with with this info, it's good enough to make me pass.

  • GUYS I HAVE BEEN BETTING THE BUCS FOR TWO WEEKS NOW. THEY ARE AWFUL AND THE LINE MOVED JUST LIKE THIS ONE.