VR's "TRUE-STEAM"..."15-5" the L/4 Wks..."67%" OVERALL !!

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VR's "TRUE-STEAM"..."15-5" the L/4 Wks..."67%" OVERALL !!

The "True Steam" just keeps on Winning...

We were "3-2" L/Week and cashed our 1st NFL 3* "TRUE STEAM" GOW...

We are now "15-5" the L/4 weeks...And a profitable "67% ATS" for the Season...

 

As the season winds down, we will see less "early moves"...and more "late moves"...

The reason for this is because the oddsmakers ratings continue to improve...Which means that more "handicapping" goes into the "steam plays"...Unlike early in the season, when they are based more on the fact the sportsbooks hang up numbers that are very different than what the Betting Syndicates come up with...

Now with that said...the Wiseguys and ALL sports bettors who take this seriously, will always have an advantage...Because not only do the oddsmakers need to factor in "public perception"...but the bookmakers are forced to adjust for the "public money"...Because it's no secret that when it comes to football, the "public money" almost always outweighs the "Wiseguy money"...

The other advantage that we have is something that lengendary investor Warren Buffet always talks about...And that is that as investors, we always have the opportunity to say "NO"...But the sportsbooks can't...They are forced to put a line up for every match-up, which makes it almost impossible not to make any errors...

But unless you employ that power to say "NO"...and like my good friend BookieBill says..."wait on winners"...then you are giving up one of the biggest edges we have...

 

Before I move on to this week's "True Steam" bets...I want to explain why we don't have any "early moves" in the NFL so far...

The reason for this is what we touched on above...That the Outfits add much more handicapping behind their "steam"...Which ultimately takes more time, and therefore, those bets tend to be made later in the week...

Because I spent so much time moving "steam" and hanging around to pick the brains of the guys coming out with many of the plays...I can also tell you that the reason for the lack of NFL "moves"...is because of the "Weather"...

That's correct, these Outfits don't trust the weather reports until at least Thursday...Which means that they are willing to wait, as we get towards the close of November and onwards...since that's when weather can be such a huge factor...

So always make sure to keep your eye on the "Line Moves" on Thursday late-afternoons and evenings...Then again on Friday late-afternoons and evenings...And you will see that so many of the point-spreads and totals, begin to move...VR

 

NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM"....for NOV 27th & 28th, 2009 :

 

1.) LOUISVILLE opened +3.5/+4.5....Now +3

This is one of those "early moves" that can confuse some bettors who try to follow the Outfits...Because if you were watching the line-moves as soon as the numbers went up for this week's match-ups...you would have noticed that this line went up, before it came down...The reason for this is because it appears that the first intentions of the Betting Syndicates, was to get a jump on the "public"...who are definitely going to be betting Rutgers...So when CRIS opened their line up on Sunday at -3.5, and immediately took some money on the favorite...they moved it up to -4...This move prompted the other off-shore books to try and get a jump on the Wiseguys and the public, by opening their line for the game at -4.5...And when the Wiseguys didn't respond, the books here in Vegas...like the LV Hilton, went ahead and opened it at -5...Many times, you will see the Outfits sit back at this point...and allow the betting public to come in and drive the line up even higher...But it's obvious, that there was now a lot more "value" than many Syndicates had hoped for...because we saw that as soon as one of the Outfits took Louisville this morning...ALL of the others decided to join the party as well...And they went ahead and bought up all the Louisville that was available at +5, +4.5, +4, & even +3.5...Which is why we are now looking at a line of -3, all across the board...VR

LINE PREDICTION : We all know that when the sportsbooks get to the key numbers of "3" & "7", they really prefer adjusting the "vig", instead of the line...But unless the Wiseguys go ahead and send out another "Buy-Order" on Louisville +3, the books may be forced to get off the key number of "3"...and possibly go up to -3.5 and even -4 again...Now if the Outfits do send out that "Buy-Order", then even though it would force the move down to -2.5...I don't believe it would stay there very long...Because that would now offer up a very profitable middle opportunity that the Wiseguys definitely won't pass up...So if you like the Rutgers side, I recommend laying the -3 now...or even better, buying the 1/2 point and taking them down to -2.5...But if you like the Louisville side, then I suggest you wait until much closer to kick-off...Because you really shouldn't get worse than the +3, they are offering now...But most likely, when the public begins betting Rutgers...you should find yourself with a better number...VR

 

2.)  GEORGIA opened +7.5/+8....Now +7

It's become obvious to me that the Betting Syndicates & Oddsmakers, both disagree on Georgia...Because the Wiseguys continue to back Georgia, while the Oddsmakers refuse to adjust enough to stop them...We saw the Outfits "steam" Georgia last week, and we're seeing the same thing this week...Now this is one of those "early moves" that most bettors who try and follow "steam", without getting it from a direct source...would most likely miss out on...Because not only does the "move" look insignificant, but once again...the betting public should out-weight the Wiseguy money enough on this match-up, to totally cover up any "line-move"...But I can tell you for certain, that the Wiseguys took a "True Position" on Georgia, which actually was very significant...Because once again we have a case where the Betting Syndicates could have sat back, and allowed the betting public...who will certainly be on GTech come game-time, force the books to adjust for all that action...and ultimately end up with an even better number on Georgia...But they didn't do that, instead within a minute of opening the game up at -7.5 at CRIS...the Outfits took a position on Georgia, forcing the move down to -7, a "key number"...And when a few of the Wiseguys did decide to try and play that game to get a better number on Georgia later in the week...by actually laying -7 on GTech when it got adjusted...we saw other Syndicates come right back and take the +7.5 again...And by the end of Sunday, we were sure that the Outfits loved Georgia at anything better than +7...which is why by Monday morning, we saw 7's all across the board...But the books tried to go to 7.5 again, knowing who the public would be betting...and hoping that the Outfits were through...And by mid-afternoon, the Betting Syndicates decided to really reprimand them for this...By going ahead and now buying-up all the +7.5's and even taking some +7's...Which is why we saw the dip, all the way down to -6.5 by the close of Monday at some shops...As of this morning, we are now looking at -7 all across the board...with the vig being the only difference at some of the off-shore outs...VR

LINE PREDICTION : I don't expect we will see this line get back down to 6.5...And even if the Outfits decide to buy up some more Georgia +7, I believe it's the vig that will adjust the most...But with that said, I actually feel that this line will most likely go back up...Because this is a "marquee" match-up...that will have overwhelming public money on the favorite...And the books will also have to be conscious and consider that they will have a ton of teasers pending with GTech come Saturday...So I wouldn't be shocked at all, if this time...they do come off the "key number" of 7, even though that is rare...If you are looking to back GTech, I recommend betting them now at -7...or again, even better...buying the hook and taking it down to -6.5...On the flip side, if you agree with the Wiseguys...then I see no reason at all why you shouldn't wait until much closer to kick-off...Because the worst case scenario if they don't want to get off of "7"...will be to adjust the "vig"...Which would then allow you to buy the 1/2 point...and take it up to +7.5 yourself, at a nice discount...VR

 

3.) UTAH STATE opened +3....Now +2

Here is one of those "moves" that I was taught to really look for back when I was just moving "steam"...and trying to learn about the market...Because these are the kind of games, that you can be almost 100% certain of the "true-intentions" of the Wiseguy...The reason for this is simple... the "Wiseguy Money", will far out-weigh the "public money" for sure...This is not a "marquee" match-up...and neither school is well known or followed...So the books are willing to adjust completely based on what the Wiseguys are doing, without even considering the "public"...And there is no better proof, than when they showed no resistance in moving this line off the "key number" of "3"...down to -2.5...and ultimately down to -2...We can also be pretty sure that along with the difference in ratings, the Outfits also see plenty of "handicapped edges"...because they didn't move on Utah St immediately, instead...they waited until the following day...And we saw that within 10 minutes, the sportsbooks were willing to get off of the "3"...go to 2.5, and are now at 2 all across the board...VR

LINE PREDICTION : This one is a little tougher to follow because it's now at 2, and unless the Wiseguys try and work a middle...we shouldn't see this get back to 3, because like we touched on above...this game will attract very little volume from the betting public...So the only way this one moves, is if the Outfits force it to...Which is exactly what should happen, because we all know just how much they like to "middle" around "3" and "7"...So if you like the Utah St side, like the Outfits do...then I recommend waiting, because you really shouldn't get a worse number...And truth be told, there is not too much difference in terms of "value" between +2...and +1.5 or +1, if it did happen to drop...On the flip side, if you don't agree with them, and like the Idaho side...then I suggest that you go ahead and lay the -2 now...Because you are now gaining so much extra value, since it opened at -3...And it will be a HUGE difference if you wait and are forced to lay -3 later, if the Outfits "buy-back" or try and "middle" the game...compared to what you will gain by waiting in hopes of only laying -1, when you can get -2 right now...VR

 

Those are the "3" FREE PICKS for this week's "TRUE STEAM"...that my own Ratings/Numbers support the most...

And just like last week...I went ahead and choose the "1" NCAAFB 3* "TRUE STEAM" GOW...that I believe offers us the most "betting value"...

So I went ahead and Uploaded it for Subscribers into the System earlier today...And have since made it available for Daily Players, up on My Pros Page...

CLICK the LINK for My "1st" NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK !!

 

 

With that Best Bet...we will have a total of 4 "True Steam" Bets for this week's NCAAFB match-ups...

Please feel free to add  your insight/opinions and pass along any questions or comments that you may have...

We've all been able to really make this thread an excellent handicapping tool for everyone to use, and I want to Thank You All for that...

Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...

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  • Has VR posted this weeks posible line changes. If so where can I find it. TIA

  • You are very welcome Sandlapper...And I really should have realized that the Wiseguys were going to BUY-BACK on Louisville come game-time...since it's right around their favorite number to work a middle "3"...

    Sometimes I get a much better feel for what they are going to do later in the week...But this one threw me off because they could have easily worked their "middle" the other way around and gotten an even better price on Both...

    By allowing the public to push the line up on Rutgers...and even toss out a couple of bets from well known runners on Rutgers, to really conceal the "True Steam"...Then come back via all the locals about 30min until kick-off and unload on LOU...

    But instead they went the other way with it and ruined my perfect SWEEP...

    With that said...I'll take a "3-1" TUE STEAM Week everytime...And it's reall good to see that both times I was able to Isolate a 3* GOW...it got the money for us...

    I'm glad that so many of you have been able to profit from this information...But I'm even happier to know that it's getting so many cappers to think at higher and higher levels...when it comes to "line-moves"...Best of Luck, VR

    TRUE STEAM = "18-6" (75% ATS) the L/5 Weeks..."23-11" Overall !!

  • Just wanted to say thanks again because this blog is MONEY!

  • It looks like that Utah State game went back to a +3. Any information on that as to why it went back up? Did the wiseguys buy off of it or has the public moved it up to 3? Looks like a no play now if the wiseguys bought off?

  • haha it also didn't hurt that you had wv and auburn in your plays today that was also an extra nudge.  

    Miss 7 to 8.5

    Okst +10 to +8

    kansas +5 to +3.5

    Ecu -3.5 to -6

    thoughts?

  • thanks vr you helped give me the extra nudge to pick 3 winners today much appreciated.  

  • Killingme...The Ohio & Auburn Sides definitely got STEAMED...And there wasn't any "Buy-Back" or real "Middle Attempt" on Ohio...But there's still time to see if they work a Middle on AUBURN because they got a really good number on them...and can now get BAMA at less than -10...

    As far as WV...the Outfits will almost always try to get BOTH teams in a match-up as DOGS...And that's exactly what they were able to do on PITT/WV...

    best of Luck, VR

  • ohio went all the to pick at the hilton  my local gave it to me at +3  then his big players were on temple and had the opportunity to get it at +4 but wussed out. so hopefully the move was a true position and i got good value.

  • Akron/E Mich opened at 17 and ive seen it as low a 14.5 -- does anyone have any thoughts on this one??   or cincy/illinois that went from 17 up to 21.5 ... nebraska/colorado that went from 8 to 11 ... north Illinois/Cent Mich went from 9.5 to 13.5 .... or Nevada/Boise St  going from 10.5 to 14??

    thanks so much for all the sharing you do VR ... and i surely realize  that you look at sooooo many more things than just line movement...not sure if these fit your criteria ... but they looked like some pretty big movers in tomorrows games and curious if you or anyone else had any thoughts or any other info on these games?!?   thanks!!   hope everyone had a happy turkey day!!   :)

  • some lm I noticed for fridays games

    Ohio +3 to+1.5  

    Wva  +2 to pk

    Aub +10.5 to +10

    thoughts?

  • it's great how much the community appreciates quality info!

  • If anyone noticed......I looked @ all the line movements and 2 games stuck out.... #1 the packers game - to me it looks like it was steamed to 10 and then sharps backed off . Any thoughts?

    #2 the Browns/Bengals over also looked like a steam move?

  • this info is priceless and your efforts remain greatly appreciated by many more than you know, man.  very interesting stuff on the georgia game, uga lost to tech last year and it's been eon's since they've lost two in a row to them.  it would make there season to knock them off when ranked in top 10,  i expect max effort from UGA b/c of it, even though it may seem to the casual observer that it would difficult for UGA  to get off the mat after their pathetic second half collapse last week.

    best,

    amich1

  • Wow, just realized 2 things...

    1) I made little sense in my post above, I hope you understand what I was trying to say.

    2) I need to lock my computers because my workers keep logging on as them on my computer...I think we handicap more then we actually work