VR's 2009-10 NCAABB CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURE BETS !!

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VR's 2009-10 NCAABB CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURE BETS !!

Last season, I went ahead and chose UCONN (+2000) and OKLAHOMA (+4000)...as our NCAABB Futures...

We saw Oklahoma fall one game short of reaching the Final Four...while UCONN was able to get to the Final Four...

What you need to understand is that the main goal for myself, in placing "Future Bets"...is to put myself in a position to "EARN"...

Now don't get me wrong, when a future bet gets there all the way...like the STEELERS did last year, that's a beautiful thing...

But with that said, the main reason we bet the NO SAINTS (+2000) for 4 Units...and the SD CHARGERS (+1000) for 5 Units...in the NFL this season, was because I felt that BOTH teams would have no problem making the Playoffs...And when that happens, we will be in a great position to earn...

When it comes to NCAABB this year...we are going to make "2" FUTURE BETS to WIN the 2009-10 NCAABB CHAMPIONSHIP...And "cut-down" the nets in March...

I've decided that we would put a total of "7" Units in Play...And since BOTH are considered BEST BETS...We will make one a 4* Bet, and the other a 3* Bet...Which will hopefully give us "100" UNITS to work with in March...So without further delay, let's get right to this season's wagers...VR

 

To WIN the 2009-10 NCAABB CHAMPIONSHIP (FUTURE BETS) :

 

1.) TEXAS +1000....(4*)

Now you are going to have to shop this one around, because I've seen as low as +800...to a high of +1200...So I'll go ahead and put this out at the number we just got at Bodog, which they will probably move once they see that these accounts have cashed some big "Future Bets" in the past...

For those living here in Vegas, I also know that the Hilton Superbook is using +1000...Because a couple of guys who help me out, that I gave these bets to on Friday, were able to get that over the weekend...And here are my reasons...

Bottom Line...although this team lost G AJ Abrams and C Connor Atchley...they are loaded with talent, and are extremely DEEP...They will start "3" Seniors, "1" Junior, and "1" Freshman at PG...Now I know you may be thinking, that having the upper-classmenis great...but a freshman PG ??

Well, let me be the first to tell you that this PG is not your average freshman...In fact, I know about this kid very well because he played his HS ball right here in Vegas, at Findlay Prep...And will be the biggest aquisition for Texas since Kevin Durant...

His name is AVERY BRADLEY, and he could have gone to ANY school he wanted...He was Ranked the #1 Prospect in the nation on ESPNU, and after winning the slam-dunk contest at the McDonalds All-American Game...he went on to score 15 pts, and grab 6 RB in only 20+ minutes of play...

More importantly, Bradley is the ONLY freshman to ever be invited to the DeRon Williams Point Guard Academy back in June...Where he was able to work out with the likes of Sherron Collins, Kalin Lucas, & Nic Wise...So this kid could flat out play...And at 6-3, he is expected to be versatile enough to play the 1 or 2 spot when he's out on the court...

Finally, Barnes knows that this may be the best team he has ever had at Texas...So he invited Kevin Durant, Royal Ivey, TJ Ford, & DJ Augustin to camp over the summer...To come in and help this team prepare for the long season ahead...And also force them to practice againt NBA level competition...Which should really pay dividends and have this team ready no matter what they go up against throughout the seaon and the Madness...

Barnes was sharp enough to schedule a grueling Out-of-Conference Schedule...So by the time that March rolls around, this squad will have already been tested...And the way they lost to Duke last season, which stopped them from reaching the Sweet 16...should really add for both, motivation and experience...

I truely believe that this is the one team that has the kind of players and system to give Kansas problems...And if they can play up to their potential, and stay healthy...then there is absolutely NO reason at all they won't get far enough in the Tourney, to allow us to "Earn"...and with a few bounces going their way, possibly cut down the nets...VR

 

2.) TENNESSEE +2000....(3*)

This is another "Future Bet" that you really need to shop...Because although the lowest I've seen is +2000, I've seen as high as +2500...Which is what I bet it at over the weekend at the Las Vegas Hilton...

More importantly, you should ALWAYS shop your future bets around, because books will adjust their odds based on what bets THEY are booking...and not neccessarily what others are offering...

Now I know that this team lost in the 1st Round of the Tourney last season to Oklahoma St, by a mere 2 points...And I also know that Bruce Pearl has been accused of not being able produce come Tournament time...But let's tell it like it is, a coach can only do so much to prepare his players to go out and perform...the rest is up to them...And after the job Pearl did with his team last season, nobody should doubt that this guy is one of the best in College Basketball today...

They won 21 games, and tied for 1st in the SEC East...Getting to the Championship Game, even after so many injuries and off the court problems...

This season, Pearl gets "ALL 5 STARTERS BACK" from last year's team...

And except for Sophmore SG Scotty Hopson, who was considered to be a definite "one & done"...and enter the NBA Draft, but decided to return...Tennessee will be starting "4" Seniors...And many times we will see "5" on the court at the same time...

So experience is not a concern...And neither is depth, after Tyler Smith didn't turn pro...and they were able to get JUCO PG Melvin Goins, who is a "lock-down" defender...to go along with an extremely talented and mature group...

I really believe that this will be the season that Pearl is finally able to silence his critics, who claim "the Sweet 16 is where Tenn goes to die"...

Because he has himself one of the most talented and athletic teams in the nation...With a huge cast of upper-classmen, many of whom could have turned pro already...But instead, seem to have come back for their senior year's for a reason...Because they truely believe that this team is capable of getting to the Final Four, and putting themselves in a position to cut down the nets that same Monday...VR

 

 

Now obviously, many feel that Kansas and even Michigan St are the best teams in NCAABB...

And although Texas is Ranked right up there with them...They haven't been able to get the job done in the past, even with very talented teams...So they will be one of those squads that most will disregard as being "legitimate", until they prove otherwise...

And as far as Tennessee goes, whoever I passed along this future bet to...came back with the quote, "save your money"...

But that is exactly the kind of teams that I like to back for future bets...Because the "public perception" adds plenty of value, and more importantly...these teams also seem to always have that chip on their shoulders...

So let's go ahead and put "7" UNITS into play on these 2 NCAABB "Future Bets"...

And see if we can "Earn" off them in March...or even better, cash one of these 2 tickets...

Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck on the College Basketball Season ahead...This should be a great one, without a team as dominant as N Carolina was last season...Because although Kansas is almost being touted as such, after doing a lot of work, I do believe they are beatable...Vegas-Runner.

  • Good picks  VR. Have to disagree on Avery Bradley. Yes, Texas is as deep as the ocean but Bradley is no point guard. That team has 3 point guards, the best of which isn't even eligible....Jai Lucas comes in December. Bradley is a 2 guard who will be a lockdown defensive stopper in college. I watched him weekly at Findlay Prep. The point guard is still there (Cory Joseph) and is unreal and allowed Bradley to do his thing last year from the off-guard spot. Joseph's the kid who carried Findlay over Oak Hill last year. I do love Texas' roster and love your pick. Cheers.

  • VR, thanks for your input. That was very helpful.

    Craig

  • your the man Vr

  • Cstraus...Thank you for your support my friend and I'm really glad to see that you are enjoying my Blogs...You can always go back and read the one's I've written over the L/2 years...Some of them have some really good stuff for cappers and bettors alike...

    To answer your question about earning...

    When Tourney time comes around...and BOTH of these teams get there...we will have a couple of different ways to earn...If of course things shape up the way I think they will...

    A team like TEXAS will almost certainly be Favored at least until the Elite 8...And with so many Units at our disposal...we should be able to bet the dog and get "Points" on those match-ups...Which can put us in a position to BOTH...cash the bet on the Dog, and still keep the Future Bet alive...

    As far as Tennessee...being a "long-shot"  at 20-1...we may have to get more creative when the time gets here and look at the different seedings to work some magic...

    As far as "money management" goes...

    That is the #1, most important factor in being a successful sports bettor and actually turning a profit...That is of course if you have the ability to win more games than you lose...

    There is NO better example of this than my Card for Monday Night...

    Although I lost the 4 Unit Bet...I won "3" 2 Unit Bets...

    Which means that there is NO WAY that anyone who plans on actually making money betting sports...should have lost a penny...In fact, they should be going into Tuesday with me, already ahead on their books for the week...

    This is why most will notice that I even wrote on the play itself...That although I believe the Value supports a 4 Unit Bet...It is only a 4 Unit Bet...And I release a 3 Unit bet just about everyday...

    Now next week...I'm almost definitely unloading a 5 UNIT Bet in the NFL...And as much as I really love the play...(if able to confirm)...the bottom line is that it will be a 5 Unit Bet...Nothing more, and nothing less...

    Unfortunately, this "paid service" industry was built on misrepresentation and trying to expoit, rather than educate and actually show people how to make money from their information...And they used marketing ploys like GOY and LOCK..to encourage people to buy...

    But truth is...EVERY sports bettors BEST BETS only have a slightly higher % of winning, than any other...

    Meaning that if you are a pro bettor and can have a Win% of 56-57% (which is more than good enough to never do anything but bet sports)...truth is, your GOY's, LOCKS, & Best Bets...may have a 59-61% chance of cashing...

    And I know that this may not be the kind of things that I should be saying since I am a paid capper myself...But fortunately for my clients, and anyone who uses my Free Info...I bet my own games, and don't reley on having to convince others to buy, in order to make my living...

    The % that you touched on is actually a pretty good way to do it...

    And to be perfectly honest...if you cut that in 1/2, then you will be minimizing Risk even more...Which should always have you in action...Which will allow you to Both, overcome the losing streaks that are a mathematical certainty...and also be there for the unevitable win streaks...if of course you are truely a winning sports bettor...

    I never get tired of talking about this because it is so important...And I think it's something that always needs to be discussed, and right up front for everyone trying to beat this market...

    Best of Luck, VR

  • Hey VR, love your info! I have a couple questions. I'm curious how you would "Earn" off of them come March, and also, the other question is about money management, the topic of money management is one of the biggest things that I'm trying to set concrete rules in, so my question is would I put like 4% of my bankroll on your 4* play and 3% on your 3*? Again, thanks for all you contribute, It's much appreciated, you seem like a stand up guy.

    Craig

  • Thanks Fellas...And Need, I couldn't agree with you more...Tennessee has some question marks, which is also why we are getting such a nice price...I just believe that because they only shot 31% from 3 Pt range last season, that it was one of the focal points in the off-season...And with their athleticism, if they are also able to at the very least...be average behind the arc...then it gives them a lot of options...

    Unfortunately for teams like Duke of the past...when you rely on the 3pt shot that much...eventually you are going to have some off nights...But when you are also athletic enough to get to the basket during those times...at the very least, you have a shot to win...

    Believe me, I did a radio show where I gave out the 2 futures and the host had interviewed Bruce Pearl a week prior and he was telling me that this team just can't do well in the Tourney, and a bunch of other reasons they won't even get to the Sweet 16...

    But for some reason, I just feel that at +2000 or better...they will be one of the Top 10 teams when Tourney time gets here...Which would then have us getting the best of it...

    Then again, they can disappoint like they have so many times in the past...and end up offering +4000 at Tourney time...In which case, I'll wish I never bet them...lol

    Jonpistone...Please feel free to ask about any match-up, and as long as I see it...I will let you know how I feel unless it's an official play that others are paying for...And even then, I'll at least try and pass along some solid info...

    I am PASSING in NCAABB tonight...so don't worry at all...

    To be perfectly honest...I actually leaned Purdue in this game, and I can tell you for certainty...that this Purdue team is going to be very good this year...And was actually one of the final teams on my "Futures List"...as far as "higher odds" go...

    They are pretty loaded, and I think it will take Tennessee a little longer into the season to really hit their stride...

    Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see them come out from the start of the season and play great...Especially since they are a veteran group...

    But for some reason, this line...and this situation...has me thinking Purdue may be the side with the Value tonight...

    Which may mean we should have waited until the end of this week to place these Futures, because a loss may give us an even better price...Then again, they play so many games that I don't expect the books to adjust until a little later...unless there is a key injury...

    I'm hoping to catch some of that game...and will be cheering in the Tennessee side...But like I said, if I was forced to make a bet...I'd probably be on Purdue...Best of Luck if you bet it...VR

    Thanks again fellas for all your support...Please feel free to post your comments and don't bite your tongue for my sake...

    I could be way off here on Both...and most of you follow NCAABB just as religiously as I do...And I'd love to hear what you like or your take on the season...VR

  • VR- always respect man.

    Only issue I have with the Vols is they HAVE to run. If they are forced to use a half court set, thier goose will be cooked.

    the above is more a question than comment, though thats how I see UT vols this year

  • im a big fan of both these teams as well.....one side note (not sure if u can answer cause it may be one of your plays today) ...  but Tenn is +2 today at Purdue....and im shocked that these guys wont win straight up....any thoughts/advice/etc??    im worried as to why they are dogs....but im gonna have a hard time stayin away.

    thanks for this great info on the futures.....well written....thanks for sharing!!!!

  • Thanks, your hard work is really appreciated. I hope this cashes for you.

  • Thanks