Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs
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Last week we launched my "Line-Predictions" Blog, and were able to accurately predict the move on "13 of the 14" selections...And the only one that didn't move, sat idle...

Now don't get me wrong, those results are not what should normally occur...And truth is, my goal is to be able to achieve around "60% Accuracy" on these "Line-Predictions"....Because if I am able to do that, then it means we will be able to get the "BEST LINE" on the majority of our bets for those match-ups we attempt this for...Which ultimately increases overall "Win %" by simply knowing when to bet the game...

I believe that today's handicappers just don't try to do this enough...While the older, winning sports bettors are famous for knowing when to get down and always make it a priority to get the "BEST NUMBER"...

There are a lot of factors to consider...and I'm the first to admit that it takes a lot of experience, and more importantly...a lot of information gathering and interpreting...and finally, having that "X-Factor" that is known as "Feel"...And because it does take a lot of work, many handicappers and sports bettors alike, routinely leave this out of thier handicapping each week...

Well, we are going to try to change that...by all working together to try and help each other determine and decide when to make certain bets...And by practicing doing this, I can promise you that we will all improve our results...as well as become more efficient at predicting the "market reaction" for all match-ups and sports...

So let's get right to this week's "Line-Predictions"...because I was able to begin gathering info even earlier, which has allowed me to feel comfortable about trying to predict even more "moves" than last week...VR


"LINE-MOVE PREDICTIONS" (NCAAFB & NFL) for the Week of 11-10-09 to 11-16-09 :




1.) W VIR at CINCI.....Thur Total = OVER/UNDER 55.....Projection : UP


2.) CLEMSON at NC ST.....Thur Line = CLEM -8.....Projection : UP


3.) KENTUCKY at VANDI.....Thur Line = KEN -3....Projection : UP


4.) TEXAS at BAYLOR.....Thur Total = OVER/UNDER 52.....Projection : UP


5.) UAB at MEMPHIS.....Thur Total = OVER/UNDER 63.5.....Projection : DOWN


6.) UCLA at WASH ST.....Thur Line = UCLA -17.5.....Projection : DOWN


7.) IDAHO at BOISE ST.....Thur Total = OVER/UNDER 64.....Projection : UP


8.) STANFORD at USC.....Thur Line = USC -11.....Projection : DOWN


9.) ARIZONA ST at OREGON.....Thur Line = OREGON -18.....Projection : UP


10.) SJ ST at UTAH ST.....Thur Line = UTAH ST -12.5.....Projection : UP


11.)  WASH at ORE ST.....Thur Line = ORE ST -13.....Projection : UP


12.) FLA at S CAR.....Thur Line = FLA -17.....Projection : UP


13.) ARK ST at FLA ATL.....Thur Line = ARK ST -3.5.....Projection : UP


14.) UL-LAF at MTSU.....Thur Line = MTSU -13.....Projection : UP





1.) BUF at TENN.....Thur Line : TENN -7.....Projection : UP (Books don't like coming off 7, especially in NFL..But the ONLY way I can see this moving is UP)


2.) DET at MIN.....Thur Line : MIN -16.5.....Projection : UP


3.) NO at STL.....Thur Line : NO -14.5.....Projection : DOWN


4.) BAL at CLE.....Thur Line : BAL -10.5.....Projection : UP



I felt comfortable making a "Line-Prediction" on those 18 Match-Ups...and we'll shoot for 60% Accuracy again this week...

Please feel free to pass along any insight, comments, or questions that you may have...Like I said in the first week's blog...I really want to continue trying to improve this blog like we've been able to do with the "TRUE STEAM"...Because these are handicapping tools for all of us to share...

Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner

  • Thnaks Fellas...I decided to do it on Thursday evenings because I know that these Betting Syndicates like to take the majority of their positions on Friday evenings for BOTH, NCAAFB & NFL weekend games...

    And since I am still good friends with a lot of the guys who move this "Steam" for those Outfits...it allows me the opportunity to help you guys get a jump on the line moves...before they begin unloading...

    What I do is use that information...along with my own experience from watching line moves closely for so many years...and this gives us a good chance to be accurate on how the market will react to the money coming in...

    And finally, I try to determine...with the help of bookmakers like BookieBill and a lot of others...which way the public money is expected to come in on game-day...Which really helps add to the accuracy of these "Predictions"...

    I am so glad that a lot of you handicappers are able to use this information to your advantage...And more importantly, that you all realize how vital trying to get the "BEST NUMBER" is for success...

    Thanks again and best of luck, Vegas-Runner...

  • Each week - posts on Thursday.

  • Does VR do this everyweek? If so when does he post it. I think it's a great value for us amateurs.

  • VR is a machine, a freak I tell you

  • Another profitable week . . . you would have gotten the better number of 10 games and a worse number on 4 games following Vegas Runner's prediction (23-5 over two weeks)!

  • If you like a game where VR predicts the line will get worse, bet now . . . if VR predicts the line will get better, bet late.

  • UPDATE : Fellas, as I was looking through the NFL Board...I realized that I forgot to turn the page on my notes, so I didn't see that I had made a Prediction for the MNF Line...So I went ahead and added it to the blog as well...We have a total of 18 "Line-Predictions"...So the Goal is to be accurate on 10 or 11 of those...to have success this week...Thanks again and best of luck, VR

  • Loon...If you like USC, I would definitely wait because even though they are a Public Team that almost always gets support...I know for fact that Stanford is on the Wiseguys's "Buy-Order" List...So if the books try and adjust for the public action, the Wiseguys will definitely grab the points and take advantage...Otherwise, they will probably do so anyway sometime before game-time...

    If you like Stanford, I would grab the points now because I don't think you will get much better as we aproach the game...

    Now these aren't guarantee's...But they are my predictions of how the market should move based on the future action...Best of Luck, VR

  • WAIT


  • Fast....I LOVE IT !! That was some of the exact reasoning behind me liking SF last night also...But the UNDER was screaming so loud, that I decided to pass on the side and unload on the Total...

    But what you said was such a perfect example of why you have to be conscious of the lines and read how and why they may be moving...

    This is a market that we bet into...and we can't ever lose sight of that simply because it's also entertainment...,Thanks again and best of luck, VR

  • VR I made a play on SF last night once I saw the move to 3.5 . WHAT A BIG HOOK? I remember you saying on pregame TV that it will not move off 3. When it did I knew their was some steam behind it.  I owe that W to you my friend.

  • Great article Vegas Runner.  This information is very important.  When people talk about the "edge" you can get while handicapping, this information can jumped your odds pretty good.  Keep up the great work.  

  • 13 orf 14 games you could have gotten a superior line on - by either betting early or late based upon VR's amazing projections!