We are now over 1/4 of the way through the Football Season, and this is when the Wiseguys usually kick it into gear...They now have more than enough data to really sharpen their Power Ratings, but the Oddsmakers also have plenty to work with as well. This is why we will begin to see less and less "TRUE STEAM" in those initial 24hrs after the sportsbooks release the odds for the following week's games...
The reason for this is that the Power Ratings of BOTH, the Oddsmakers & the Wiseguys will definitely begin to resemble each others more and more...and therefore, we will begin seeing more "Moves" after these Betting Syndicates have had time to work on the individual match-ups...Because as I've said in the past, those initial "Steam Moves" are based almost entirely on the fact that the Betting Syndicates numbers differ from what the Oddsmakers sent out...and ultimately, what the books offer...
With that said, the Wiseguys will continue to have the advantage...because the "Betting Line" offered by the books, must take into account for "Public Perception"...and is also set to try and encourage more 2-way action from the bettors...To do this, sometimes they have to adjust a number...even though they know it may not truely reflect what their "Power Ratings" dictate...And this is why, although the Oddsmakers & Bookmakers always have to take into account what the Syndicates may be looking for...many times, they are forced to allow them to get the best of it...Which is why they continue to beat the books year in and year out...
Finally, as we move forward...I will attempt to pass along those "Steam Moves" which my own numbers support the most...Because although we've used the last few Blogs to focus on the bigger moves from these Outfits...along with those that allow me to best explain some of the reasoning that goes into these bets...I also believe that we should try to peg down some winners as well...So with that, let's move on to some of the upcoming week's "TRUE STEAM"...
NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for Week of 10-17-09 :
1.) NORTHEWESTERN opened +13.5....Now +12
This is one of those games that the books really have a hard time putting a line up for...and are always holding their breaths when they do, to see just how wrong they may be...and how much it will cost them...Because when there is an injury to a "Key Player", the books have no clue how the Wiseguys will approach it...And in this case, with MSU QB Kirk Cousins (Probable) not 100%, the sportsbooks didn't offer a line until early this morning...And when they did, the Outfits let them know immediately that they opened it too high...The Syndicates took +13.5 right away, which scared many books into moving it an entire 1.5 pts right away, like Pinny did...While others who chose to drop it a 1/2 Pt at a time like CRIS, were bet into, again at +13...Since then, we are looking at 12 or 12.5 all across the board...My Line Prediction : Word is Cousins will be ok to play, but I also hear that they Wiseguys may not be done...So I expect this line to dip down even a bit lower, before being pushed up some on game-day by the Public, who is expected to come in on MSU...VR
2.) WISCONSIN opened PK....Now -2
This is another perfect example of why you have to have solid sources if you are attempting to make money following "Steam"...Because when CRIS opened up IOWA at Pk, the Wiseguys immediately tossed some money down on IOWA...That forced books like Pinny who opened a bit later, to actually make IOWA -1...and we saw CRIS move to -1.5...And until this morning, you would have been made to believe that the Syndicates were backing IOWA...But then, like they've done so many times before...they threw a curve-ball at the books, by sending out all kind of "Buy Orders" on WISC...They ended up buying all the +1.5, +1, & PK that they could find...And because the books initially thought that the Outfits were on the other side...they were slow to react, and these Syndicates got plenty of money down on WISC...Which was the plan from the start...My take is that they will now have the benefit of being able to get BOTH sides as DOGS...Which I've explained many times before, as something they love to do...But with that said, I can also tell you that their "TRUE POSITION" when all the dust settles will ultimately be on WISC...My Line Prediction : We will see a small "Middle" attempt later in the week, or even sooner if they come to the conclusion that the Public will take IOWA...This line move will make it hard to know what the Outfits are truely on...which has always been their goal...But you can be sure that they will be cheering in WISC on Saturday...VR
3.) PENN ST opened -14.5....Now -16.5/-17
This is a very significant move and I'll explain why...The sportsbooks are expecting MIN action from what I've been told...So when they got the send-out from the Oddsmakers, I expected them to offer it lower than it should actually be...which they did...But I also give them credit for opening it up over 2 TD's at -14.5...as a way of possibly keeping the Wiseguys away...But within the 1st hour of offering the line to the bettors, they found out that the Outfits still felt there was plenty of value in backing PSU...Those books who opened right after CRIS, put it out at -15...and that's when the Wiseguys tipped their hand, and began buying up all the PSU they could find...They bet them at -14.5, -15, -15.5, & -16...Which forced books here in Vegas, who open up on Monday's for the following week's football action, to put the line up at -17...And that's where it's at now, while some books fearing the "Middle" attempt, chose to leave it at -16.5...Line Prediction : With the public expected to be on MIN Saturday, I don't think the Outfits will get a chance at a "Middle" unless they are the one's who force the books to go higher...Which I don't see happening, since they already got plenty down...This means we should see the books try to keep it below 17, and hope the pubic helps them balance and limit their liability on the game...VR
4.) OKLAHOMA ST opened -6.5....Now -7/-7.5
Here is one of those moves that many overlook because it's only a 1/2pt or 1pt move...figuring, how significant can it truely be ?? Well, it all depends on the "number" that is being moved, much more than how much it moves...For example, there are no 2 numbers that the sportsbooks try to be on the right side of more than..."3 & 7"...Because those are the 2 margins that most games end by, so when the books decide to move "on or off" those "key numbers"...we have to take notice...And this is no exception, especially since the books expect the betting public to come in on the Dog, MIZZOU...And these moves are extremely telling because rather than elect to allow the betting public to possibly come in and lower the line, ultimately allowing the Syndicates to lay less...they chose to lay the points now...And that's what they did with OK St. this morning, since there was no line offered on the game last night...The Wiseguys went ahead and bet -6.5 and even some -7...This forced many books to move to -7.5, which is where they opened it here in Vegas a little later this morning...to avoid getting "Steamed" as well...Line Prediction : With the public expected to grab the points, we should see this line settle at 7...with the vig jumping around from side to side...And because of that, many who try to pick off "Steam" would have trouble doing so because it will ultimately look like only a 1/2 pt move...But with that said, if you see this get to 8 by game-day...then you can be sure that the Wiseguys have decided to unload again...Making this an extremely "Strong Move"...VR
5.) NC STATE opened +4...Now +2.5
This is definitely a bet that the Wiseguys couldn't wait to unload on...because they wasted absolutely no time at all getting down as much money as they could on NC State, before the books adjusted drastically...Once again the Outfits forced the books to adjust through a "key number"...something that takes plenty of money to do, and something they don't like doing...But in this case, according to the Wiseguys...the number was just wrong...And when CRIS opened it at 4, the Outfits didn't fear tipping their hand to the other books...which tells me that they had plans to take a lot less than +4 and be happy with it...So when the other offshore books finally opened for next week's business, and put the line at 3, thinking they were safe...Once again the Wiseguys showed them by sending out another "Buy Order", that the line was still too high...And the Syndicates took NC St at +3 also...forcing the adjustment down to 2.5...That is where the books here in Vegas opened this game, and by doing so, were able to avoid getting "Steamed" as well...Line Prediction : This sets up a perfect middle opportunity, but to do so, I believe that it will have to come early in the week...Because the betting public is expected to bet B COLL on Saturday, which would probably move it back to 3, eliminating that perfect middle...So we may see the Wiseguys be the reason for this to get back up to 3, well before the weekend gets here, and the public begins betting it...VR
NFL "TRUE STEAM" for Week of 10-18-09 :
1.) UNDER PHI/OAK 41.5....Now 40.5
Once again we have a move which isn't that big...but a closer look at the number/s involved tells us bettors that it actually is...Because just as there are "key numbers" for "Sides"...there are also "key numbers" for "Totals"...and "41" is one of them...So when an adjustment is made that goes through this "key total", we have to pay attention...And I feel that this is a big move because the books believe they will get plenty of OVER money from the betting public on Sunday...And since this game is played in Oak, not Philly...we can be pretty sure that the Wiseguys didn't make it in expectation of poor weather...And for them not to wait and allow the bettors to drive this Total up to "42" or even higher...which would truely add even more value to their bet...it tells us that we can also be sure that the Total they made for this game is much lower than what the oddsmakers thought it should be...So as soon as the off-shore books put up this Total for next week's game, the Outfits went to work betting the UNDER...And they were able to hit ALL of the offshore books who simultaneously, opened the Total at 41.5...Because it was around the "key total" of 41, the books were cautious and moved the line a 1/2 pt at a time...And all that did was allow the Wiseguys to get even more money down on the UNDER...Until they finally adjusted down to 40.5, where we've seen Vegas open this number here this morning...Line Prediction : If we see this get below 40, then you can be sure that the Wiseguys absolutely love this bet...But I don't think that will happen because as I said, the books are expecting plenty of Over money from the public on Sunday...Which is why we will probably see this go off at 41...Which once again, would hide the fact of just how big of a "Steam Play" that this truely is...VR
In closing, I just wanted to add that for this week's "TRUE STEAM"...I really took the time to choose those plays that most reflected my own "Ratings"...And although I haven't had time to handicapp the individual match-ups just yet, all 5 of these plays show that they offer value according to my own lines for the upcoming week's games...
Because as I said at the top, and a few times this week in my "Forum Posts" and "Daily Message"...I think that along with being able to educate people on how these Outfits work, and what "True Steam" really is...I want to also try and choose those plays that I agree with most...And maybe we should begin keeping a record from this week on, to see how they are doing...Just keep in mind that BOTH, the Wiseguys and myself are betting plenty of other things as well...and as the week progresses, and more work is done...sometimes there are developments to the contrary...But regardless, I thought it was best to also try and pass along those plays that as of right now, look like WINNERS...
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck, Vegas-Runner...
once again VR, prob the most informative, interesting, and entertaining stuff on the web related to sports betting
these posts are amazing - I have told so many people to check out your posts, as they are so awesome - really great stuff - please keep it up!
Great info as alway's VR ! Thank's for taking the time to gather and post all the info you do ! lPlus Bookie bill info is invaluable also...
Betting Research, UNC....Thank you so much for your support fellas, I really do appreciate it...And reading replies like those show me just how many really good handicappers are able to use the info that I share...
Because in the end, that's the reason for writing this Blog...I hoped to both, educate and get an education myself...Because I'll say it again, I have learned just as much from all of you as you have from me...
And being able to get so many different views on topics has allowed me to look at things without bias more than ever before...Which ultimately makes me a better sports bettor...
The one thing that I am trying to change a little...Is that I'm now putting a bit of my own work into these "Steam" plays...Meaning, that although I haven't capped all the individual match-ups by the time I write this...I do have my own set of lines already created to compare to what they offer...
So I was able to choose those plays that I also felt gave bettors the most Value...
I just figured that although this Blog is a way for us all to share our thoughts and information...it should also work towards providing some winners...So let;s see how that goes with this week's 5 PICKS...
I'm also going to do a Final-Follow Up later in the week...and add a few more Plays...
I won't be surprised if some of them actually make m Client Card this weekend...Thanks again, VR
thanks again for the info VR
I was recently in Vegas for a few days, and like every time i am in vegas, i had to stop at the gamblers book store - it is actually one of my favorite spots in town, other than the sportsbooks - the new location is cool, but i think i liked the other one better, but i understand why they had to move
this trip i was trying to find some books on creating power rankings - i found a couple that touched on the topic briefly - i was wondering if you could recommend any good books or resources to help one learn the process of creating power ratings
thanks!!
Research...I have to say that most of us out here agree with you, when you say you like the older location better..I used to love going down to that part of town and it just seemed so "old school" for lack of a better word....
I will try to look in my library to see if there are any that I have which would help with creating your own ratings...The one thing I want to add is that when you try to create them, don't be afraid to add some "Feel" which is what today's bookmakers lack...They became too dependent on their Ratings...
And also, create 2 different sets...1 which represents what you would call a "Fair Line"...which is what the books should put out to try and create 2-way action...And then make a 2nd set, which is your "True Line"....and that should reflect what you truely feel the line should be....
Because even though your fair line for NE vs CLE may be -10...your true line may be -21...And we know that the books can't hang up a 21...so that's where you will find your edge...
I've spent years working on different methods and in the end, the best one's are those done with more "Feel" than anything else...
Best of Luck, VR
sounds great VR - again I appreciate the info and appreciate you checking to see if you can recommend any titles - the books i found at the shop were by jr friedman(not sure of his status) and mike lee(who has passed away but u prob already know that)
old vegas is so awesome - i agree with you about it being "old school" - i live an hour west of philly which i know is where you started so i think i pretty much know what you mean - when i was in town i watched the 10:00 am games at the hilton ballroom/concert room which was amazing but then went to old vegas for the 1:00 games and went from book to book checking it all out while my wife played $1.00 roulette - lol
i love the strip and love old vegas, just love them in different ways i guess, if that makes sense...
Great stuff as always VR. Much appreciated. I'm learning and have been getting better spotting things on Sunday nights, hence Wisco +1 and my outs all have Wisc -3 now. The main game I was interested in looking at when released was USC vs ND. One of my books put out these fast forward lines for CFB games a few weeks away. Two weeks ago they had USC -7.5 so I was shocked to see it open at 11. Everybody has it at -10 now. Do you see this line continuing to go down? I love ND in this spot this week. Thanks again for this blog and the Twitter updates.
how have the early steam plays done this year?
This is the first time I've read any of your post. I just found out about this forum last Friday and am trying to see who are some of the best posters to follow. Your post here is well done. I;m curious when you say just these 5 plays are you betting them one way or the other? If so is it the one you highlight in Black the way your leaning or do you give any free picks at all?Any help would be greatl appreciated because I can assure you most of us can use any additional insight we may get.Here's thanking any of your for your kind responses.
Thanks Fellas...to answer your question about whether or not I am betting these games...as of today, I haven't...but only because I am still working on putting my card together...But with that said, I won't be surprised if I'm able to Confirm a few of these towards the end of the week, and use them for my Card on the weekend...
But as I explained coming in...this week, I took the time to really go through all the "Steam" moved in those first 24hrs...and choose the 5 bets that I agreed with the most...
Because I want to try and pass along winners with this insight into "Steam"...So we'll see how that goes...
Slim...that ND/USC line surprised a couple of people here as well....Now that the line is at 10, and the money being bet is coming in mostly split...we won't see this line come down further unless the Wiseguys really get involved and take the Dog....And you'll know right away because this line will be -8 by kick-off...But if they don't, and so far I haven't heard anything to say that they will...then we will probably see this go off at -10...VR
mahalo for the info vr................nice insight
Jeeze....where to start.
Is there really ANY of the early moves that are based on Teams & Games & Match-ups? I had suspected that - again from MY perspective 1000's of mi away that at LEAST SOME of, for instance, Wisconsin - Iowa Movement MIGHT be based on a really intensive look at Iowa's TRUE VALUE - their FOUR Hm Wins by 16 Pts, near upset to FBS Tm? Similarly - Wisky being HM, DOUBLING UP ON OHIO STATE IN YDG, & BASICALLY DOMINATING LAST WEEK'S Gm YET losing by highly misleading score of 31-13? Just always wondering HOW if at all you can quantify the actual STEAM that might be generated from TM\GM ect. Seems hit or miss - but lines that figure to move a certain way - so often DO based on these things, maybe they both work off each other?
Based on Public Perception alone - I was wholeheartedly expecting PUBLIC STEAM on Idaho, Boise and UGa - and amazingly (thankfully) saw the opposite ... yet thought ND, BYU, Florida, and Cincy are feeling the bump we may have thought they'd get.
Looks to me like ILL at IU may get to straddle that PICK line that so uniquely leads to the DOUBLE - DOG Middles you mentioned. Middlers astonish me - the time effort and sharpness required for that seems to be so doggone difficult and one would HAVE to be painstakingly diligent it just commands a lot of repect...at least from ME it does.
Great Stuff, as always - Ace
Thanks again fellas for all the awesome insight you guys keep adding...and SteveB, I look forward to seeing what you have to say about all of this each week....
The bottom line is that you have to be conscious of these significant line moves this far into the season because these guys who are moving them are deinitely proving to be much sharper than the oddsmakers are or else they wouldn't be so afraid of booking it...In fact, these days they are so afraid of this sharp action that they have decreased opening limits so much, that many of the bigger moves are now being held, especially for Totals until later in the week, when they are able to get so much more down...
But regardless, as bettors who bet into the very same lines...we may not always agree with it, but we do have to respect it and consider it in our own handicapping...Because these Syndicates are not only responsible for the majority of the moves...but more importantly, according to the books...these groups have been beating them...And they've been able to now for a very long time...
Finally...you would be surprised at some of the things or info that actually move a line after those initial 24hrs...A perfect example is that NEBRASKA line which moved about 3pt in a 16min span on Monday...It wasn't my info so I'm not going to write why since I can't be 100% sure...But I was told that line move was based on some "Personal Information" that was uncovered about "Key Player/s" and a "Girl"...And it wasn't even anything sinister, instead it had to do with the mental state due to a harsh break-up...if you can believe that...
Now like I said, it wasn't my info and I didn't uncover it...I was simply in a position to hear it when I was down in the trenches with RJ the other night at one of the Strip properties...And the source I would have to say is VERY reliable...So I do believe that this move was simply based on this shred of info, and just spread like wild...But keep in mind, those Syndicates got down on the very best numbers...not after it already moved...And by doing so, as the line keeps moving...they will have plenty of options...VR
I love these Blogs!
Great stuff, brother!
Thanks King...Its just so crazy this year because it looks like the bookmakers have absolutely NO CONFIDENCE in the numbers those oddsmakers are sending out...I mean, not only are they taking ridiculously small limits on those openers...But then as soon as someone who is known as an Outfit guy bets into them, the books end up moving the number a few points...
And then that has a domino effect because all the other books see that line move on their monitors and decide also to move it...simply on "AIR"...without ever booking a single penny...
Things have sure changed from the days I came out here...and what's strange is that you would think with all the technology, the oddsmakers would have caught up to the Wiseguys by now at least a little bit...
I mean damn, I know back in the day before the web, we had a huge edge over them...but you would think that now we are playing on a much more level field...
This is why EVERY bettor has to make sure to look into the line and how it's moved since opening, for every bet they make...And I know it's hard without strong sources to guess which moves are "True Steam"...but regardless, one has to take it into account...VR