After having a chance to discuss some of the big line moves that occur as soon as the books offer the betting lines to the public, and more importantly, to the Wiseguys, with RJ last week...we felt that it was information that every sports bettor could use, so we decided to go ahead and put out a Blog which will detail some of the Biggest Moves made as soon as the lines went up...
Now before I get to those moves, I wanted to point out that what I want to pass along is "TRUE STEAM"...Which is those actual Positions that have been taken by the various Betting Synducates throughout the US and the Islands...Because once the Lines are offered, we ultimately see moves in just about EVERY side and EVERY total...But they aren't all "TRUE" Positions, and many times adjustments are made for plenty of other reasons...
Because I spent about a decade moving "TRUE STEAM"...and have a handful of friends who still do, along with countless of sources to help me determine which of these Moves are actual positions...I'll go ahead and pass along to you, the Bets that were made by the various Betting Syndicates for next week's NCAAFB & NFL match-ups...
NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for SAT 10-3-09 :
1.) MARSHALL +3 :
This Line Opened -3 almost everywhere, with CRIS getting the jump on the rest of the books by putting out -2.5 on ECU...Now a 1/2 Pt move may not seem that significant, but this move is on a "Key Number"...which we all know the sportsbooks don't like moving off of...In fact, many were surprised that the books didn't go to +3 (-120)...but instead opted to drop it to 2.5...This offers a middle opportunity that the Wiseguys love taking and if the Public follows and also bets Marshall...which would force an even bigger adjustment, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this one get back to 3 before Kick-Off...
2.) MINNESOTA PK & -1...WISCONSIN +3 :
Here is a situation where the Offshore Books all had a different take on the game...With CRIS opening it up at PK, and PINNY opening it up at MIN -2...It appears that PINNY had it closer to what the Wiseguys believed to be the right line, because they immediately stepped up and Bet MINNY at PK & -1...That STEAM forced the adjustment up to -3, and it didn't take long for the Wiseguys to set themselves up with a great middle opportunity by taking MINNY PK & WISKY +3...Looks like most have since settled on 3 as the right number for this match-up...And I'm even seeing that a couple of outs have decided to force the Outfits to pay a little extra vig to try and Middle with WISKY +3 (-115)...
3.) TEMPLE -4 :
This Line was offered at -4 & -4.5 and the Wiseguys backed Temple once again this week...They seem to really have a handle on Temple, as we've seen them win with them vs BUFF on Saturday...and the previous week vs PENN ST...They obviously feel that the market has them undervalued still, and expect to see this line climb upwards as the week goes on...This morning we've seen a steady -5 across the board, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them take another Position before this reaches -6...And although that would open up a middle opportunity, the Outfits are more prone to try and middle around "Key Numbers"...and would rather have only a "1" Pt Middle at -2.5 & +3.5...than a 3 pt Middle of -16 & +19...
4.) OKLAHOMA -6 :
Oklahoma opened anywhere from -6 at CRIS to -7 at OLYMPIC...and the Wiseguys immediately went to work and laid -6 wherever they could...A couple of followers have since laid -6.5 and we are seeing the market adjust and except for a couple of books...this line has moved to 7 at most shops...Now the books have to be very careful about adjusting to 7 or higher because of the obvious middle they'd create for the Wiseguys who laid -6...but at the same time, they are left with the dilema that the betting public will most lilkely also follow and bet Oklahoma against a Miami team who got exploited last week...Even if the Wiseguys do decide to try for a middle and limit their liability on Oklahoma -6, by taking +7 or better on MIA...I truely doubt we will see this line ever get back to -6, because the betting public is expected to back Oklahoma in this game...
5.) UNLV +4 :
The Offshore books opened this line up at NEV -4 and were hit with UNLV action right away...That forced the adjustment down to 3.5, but I was surprised that they didn't grab that also...which would once again open up a possible Middle for them later...In fact, what was more surprising was that when a couple of books, like Olympic, raised it back up to 4, after dropping it to 3.5 due to the initial betting from the Wiseguys...once again they were forced to come back down to 3.5 after more money got wagered at +4...Once again, although you may believe that a 1/2 Pt move isn't that significant...it actually was in this spot...and it seems to me that the Syndicates Ratings show that at +4, UNLV is getting the best of it...
6.) IOWA ST -1 & -1.5....KANSAS ST +3 :
Almost every books opened this line up at ISU -1...and the Wiseguys immediately came in and laid it...Most got hit hard enough that they went straight to -3, while others tried to hold the line at 2.5 and limit a huge middle...That didn't work because a handful of wiseguys, who I've been told, expext the betting public to drive the line even higher than 3 by kick-off...went ahead and laid -2.5 anyway...Because ISU looked great last week, while KSU just doesn't look good at all...We've also seen a couple of the Syndicates not take any risks, and instead went ahead and took +3 on KSU already...This has forced many shops to since make ISU -3 (+100), making the Outfits pay an extra 10 cents for an attempt at a middle...But from what I hear, that shouldn't last too long because the betting public will be laying -3 and the books won't want them doing so at "even" money...Looks like they just opened it up incorrectly...
7.) ARKANSAS ST +21.5 :
For some reason, the Wiseguys always seem to have a handful of teams that they continue to back...Whether it's because they feel the oddsmakers haven't adjusted correctly, or because the betting public continues to over-under value them...Regardless the Outfits will continue to take a Position on these teams...And ARK ST happens to be one of those teams this season...They Bet them last week vs TROY...and 2 weeks before that vs NEB, where they took +23.5 and drove the line down to +21, even with the betting public going the other way...This week, as soon as the books opened IOWA up at -21.5...the Wiseguys bet ARK ST...We did see the books hesitate some on adjusting the ARK ST number this week, and rather than a quick 1 or 1.5 pt move or higher...they slowly adjusted their lines a 1/2 Point at a time...And that allowed the Outfits to get ARK ST +21.5 & +21...Since then, this line has balanced out at 20.5 and I've even seen a low of 20...But with IOWA being a Big10 School...and Ark St being an unknown...Unless the Wiseguys decide there is more Value even at +20, we could see the betting public push this back up to 21...
8.) MICHIGAN ST +2 :
This line opened up at 2 across the board...And although PINNY decided to lower it in 1/2 Pt incriments...we saw the Greek not waste anytime and immediately make a "2PT" adjustment on what was obviously a "soft" line according to the Wiseguys...I was surprised to see them take this Position so early in the week, because many times with a Marquee Match-Up...when they have a good idea of what the betting public will be betting, they prefer to take the chance and wait on an even better number...But in this case, it looks like nobody wanted to be the one who didn't get invited to party...and miss out on the obvious value...This is a perfect example of when the different Syndicates Ratings all point to the same thing...and in this case, they point to the fact that Michigan should have come out as a PK...
9.) UL MONROE -2 & -2.5 :
Looks like the oddsmakers just got this one wrong...because although we didn't see 1 big significant move...We did see smaller moves at each 1/2 Pt...The Outfits laid -2 where they could find it, but they weren't finished because they then went after every -2.5 they could find as well...Since then, we've even seen a few groups lay -3 which tells me that the Ratings between the oddsmakers and wiseguys were very different...Because this is usually a perfect example of their favorite type of middle...But instead of seeing a "Buy-Back" at +3, it appears they feel that the line is still too low...When this happens, the Outfits usually wait to see if the Betting Public also agrees that the line is low...because if they do and also decide to bet it...the opportunity for an even bigger middle will present itself on Saturday...Also keep in mind that this is an ADDED GAME and the limits are much lower, so the books have less of a liability...Many times, when the Outfits want to take a really big position on these Added Games, they will wait until the locals start offering them...which will allow for much more money to get bet...
Those 9 were actual "TRUE STEAM" that got bet by the different Syndicates...and although there were some other match-ups that saw their lines also move some...the reasons for those moves were not because they got "Steamed"...Many times it's just the books balancing out their numbers when they open them up a little different from the others...And other times it's just based on the books seeing the lines different elsewhere and adjusting without having even booked a single penny on the game...
Back in the day, before the internet and all the line services...there were much bigger line-moves when the numbers opened up...Now, we see that the Syndicates prefer to simply take a Position on those games where the Ratings differ...then go back and work on the match-ups to decide on what other Positions they are going to take...And that's why we see a lot of the bigger line moves come as the week progresses...
NFL "TRUE STEAM" for SUNDAY 10-4-09 :
1.) TITANS PK & -1 :
This is one of those bad spots for sportsbooks to find themselves in...Because they know that a huge middle will be made available, and there is very little they can do about it...Here is an example of the Wiseguys simply setting up a Middle Attempt...rather than actually taking a "True Position"...This is why you still see a different line at different books...CRIS has gone ahead and moved the TITANS to -3, but the GREEK has opted to keep his line at -1.5 (-125) as a way of stopping the Wiseguys from trying to set up a middle through them...Because the Wiseguys know that TENN is going to get plenty of Public backing on Sunday not to go 0-4...So by laying PK at Hilton and -1 & -1.5 Offshore, they will ultimately set up a big middle when the line eventually gets to 3 everywhere...if not higher...This is why you really have to trust your sources and not just guess at what may be STEAM, based soley on line moves...
2.) RAVENS +3.5 & +3 :
The Pats opened as high as -3.5 in Vegas, and -3 Offshore...and the Wiseguys immediately decided that this line was way too high and STEAMED the Ravens...Now this is another situation where the Wiseguys expect the Books to get 1 sided and ultimately end up with a Middle if they want it...Because the betting public is expected to back the Ravens who have looked like one of the best in the NFL...What surprised me a bit was seeing that the books adjusted slowly and by a 1/2 Pt at a time...But that is because when the line is around the Key Number of 3, the books want to be very sure of the intentions of the Wiseguys...and not open up a middle for them so easily...In this case, their intentions became obvious and the books have since gone to 2...and as low as 1...
3.) BENGALS -3, -3.5, & -4 :
This line opened up differently everywhere...with Offshore opening anywhere from 3 to 4...and Vegas coming right in the middle with 3.5...It became obvious quickly that ALL of them were still too low and the Sysndicates immediately started laying the points with the Bengals who are coming off a huge win with only seconds left to play...This line has since moved to -5 and -5.5, but even the Syndicates who laid -3 haven't looked to "Buy-Back" any...In fact, many I spoke with already feel that the Betting Public will get involved in this one and push the number even higher...Especially as the Teasers begin to make their way into the books, which is why the Wiseguys expect to be able to get at least 6 if they decide to limit their liability on Cinci...
4.) STEELERS -5 & -5.5...w/ OVER 41
Even after seeing the Steelers lose with seconds left to the Bengals...the Wiseguys didn't adjust their Ratings enough and felt there was plenty of Value in Pitt next week...The books chose to move the line a 1/2 Pt at a time because when it got to 6, like usual they need to be careful of a Buy-Back...But that just wasn't the case and after some money came in on -6, we are now seeing -6.5 across the board...If this line gets bet up to 7 by the public, I would expect to see a "Buy Back" order sent out because that would open up a nice middle opportunity...
They Wiseguys also didn't waste anytime in betting the Total for this Match-Up also...With all the books opening it yp at 41, the Outfits went OVER right away...Although 41 is a Key Total, the books weren't taking any chances and went to 42 immediately...But even then, the Wiseguys felt there was still some value to be had, and went OVER 42 as well...This moved the Total to 43, which is where it is now across the board and where the betting public will get its first crack at it...
5.) UNDER 48.5 & 47.5 NYJ/NO :
Yesterday the Wiseguys took advantage of the inflated total on the NO game, and came away with a Winner...For next week's game, the Wiseguys felt the Books have still failed to adjust enough...and have once again inflated the Total in the Saints game...There was some disagreement amongst the different books...with them opening it up as low as 47.5 and as high as 48.5...And at both shops, the Wiseguys came in and bet the UNDER, forcing a scramble to lower the line...Most went to 47 right away, but even there...the Wiseguys took some more UNDER action...And we are now looking at a Total of only 46 on this one...
Those 5 are the actual "TRUE STEAM" moves that were made by the Betting Syndicates for next week's NFL match-ups...And although you will see that a couple of other games may have lines for the side or total which may have moved...those moves are based on an attempt to offer a much more uniform line all across the board...
We will begin to see more "TRUE STEAM" over the next few days...and then again the day before & day of the events...And I will continue to try and pass along to you, the moves that actually are "TRUE STEAM"...Because as I touched on at the very beginning...almost EVERY side & EVERY total is going to move, from opening to closing number...and amongst those moves, there is a handful of "TRUE STEAM"...Best of Luck., Vegas-Runner...
BUMP............Great stuff as always Ace.
Very Very Great Info to have!!! Thanks Ace! This helps out A LOT!!!
AWESOME work VR. I eat this stuff up like candy. I follow line movement 24/7 for reasons just like you listed.
Great work, and look forward to talking to you soon buddy.
Great info VR, thanks for posting.
As always, Great work and much appreciated...
please con't to do this for the whole year. I love this info. this is very useful.
Bump
Fan-freakin-tastic!
Thanks Fellas...and I'm really glad to see that so many of you can use this type of information...
I think it would be a good idea if I tried to follow this up with another one on Thursday or Friday...to cover some of the Bigger "TRUE STEAM" Bets that have been placed after the Outfits had some time to work on the match-ups, because the early bets are based almost completely on a difference of Ratings between them and the Oddsmakers...
And if you guys think it would be beneficial...I may go ahead and do a DAILY "TRUE STEAM" BLOG for Basketball also...Because now that most shops post over-nights, so much goes on before a lot of us get to eventually see the day's lines...
Let me know what you think of that and I'll try and organize it so that it becomes something that we continue to do...Best of Luck, VR
Classic info VR. Just cant get this info anywhere in the country! Thanks brother! Lets hammer these books..
Thanks DJ and all you guys for the kind words...And I'm really glad to see that so many people follow the market this closely...
Back in the day, before I ever had a Syndicate Bettor infiltrate my book, I had no clue why or how the lines move...I was simply under the impression that the Lines moved because there was so much money coming in on one side...and moving it was a way of trying to get more of a balance...
And although that reasoning does have some merit...when I was finally introduced to the world of "Sharp Bettors"...I realized just how much more is actually going on and the many different reasons that the force the lines to move...
More importantly, in this day and age when sportsbooks have the ability to adjust a number without even booking a single penny on the game...the market has really changed a lot...
Finally, because as I explained in the piece...so much STEAM is actually Bet as the week progresses...I think it would be beneficial to have a "Follow-Up" Blog to this one...Which would not only see how the STEAM above has continued moving...but also to pass along those Positions that have been taken since...And after speaking to some of the guys who move STEAM...and seeing the way the Lines have moved since I wrote this...there are plenty of match-ups that we can discuss...
Let me know if that's something you would be interested in, so that I can schedule some time to be able to get it done...And please let me know if there is any way that I can imrpove on this idea, or any other info that you guys would find valuable...Thanks again and Best of Luck, VR
So just to get this straight, ACE....most of the betting done early week is done by MIDDLERS...correct?
I just have such a hard time believing that SHARPS can lay so much wood on any game being played 5-6 days from now otherwise....such a different world, I STILL have a hard time playing any game until FRIDAY at the earliest, with Injury Updates, practice reports, and OF COURSE weather changes (which PROVED to be the Factor in the UGa Game on this end - and obviously the VT-Miami Game as we all know, among so many others). I suppose Sharps are so well informed from Sunday Night onward that it's all a matter of angling for the highest value as much as the side plays...depends on a guys' style, and system. In my 6 yrs of doing this, I've never had so many games I circled and double highlighted that simply moved off the good number and into purgatory so swiftly and quickly before I'd EVER get close enough to Game-day to pull the trigger...maybe it's me...and maybe I'm THINKING PUT LOUD here, but you've given us a virtual MOUNTAIN of info to pour over I could spend four paragraphs of questions on every game - anyway, just wondering about the wise-guy EARLY WEEK MOVES...MOSTLY MIDDLERS? Thanks as always, VR.
Thanks Steve...Because I was right there in the trenches moving these type of Games for those same groups for so many years, I have a good idea even today when a line moves...what the true motive behind it was...And I think that after doing this Blog for a few weeks, that so many of the Pregame Forum Members are going to see some patterns,,,Because I was pleasantly surprised to see how many people really dig into the moves like they do...And they are sharp enough to begin seeing those numbers or games that they look for early on...
Now you hit it on the head when you said that a lot of the early moves have "Middling" in mind...Because what many will be surprised to find is that these Syndicates to a lot of middling and scalping as a means to profit...Because although they also capp the games and look to take positions when they feel they are getting the best of it..;.the Wiseguys also like to minimize risk, and setting up middles allows for that...
What you guys really need to consider is that early in the week...and I'm talking the first 24hrs from when the lines get offered...the Outfits have a limited amount of handicapping done on each particular match-up...But they do have their "Power Ratings"...and it's those "PRs" that determine probably 90%+ of these early positions...
We used to call these Value Bets...Meaning that they are simply saying that according to the number the book put up...compared to the number we've made for the game...there is a big enough difference that they can try and bet based on "Value" alone...
Then they have all week to work on the game and see if there truely was value...and worth keeping the position...or whether it would be best to limit the liability by trying to work a middle...
I have found that these early STEAM bets will allow you to Grind-Out a profit over time, simply on the basis that they are getting the best of the number...But I've also found that some of the stronger moves, and the ones they look to take the Biggest Positions...are those that they begin to bet about 48hrs after the lines are posted...Followed by those "Late Steam" bets that come in on game-day...
Also, I used to love when after taking a position early when the lines first went up...we were told to go back and bet it again later in the week...and sometimes more than once...Those are the times when they feel the oddsmakers are way off, and they will keep betting it until it reaches the number that it should have been at to begin with...
And when it got near kick-off, I would be sitting near the betting window holding my breath and hoping that they don't send a "Buy-Order" on the other side, just to limit the liability and also possibly hit a middle...Because those instances where they don't even look for a buy-back...have been some of the most profitable over the years...
I love seeing how much you guys are into this and how much you all know about these things...Like I said, back in the day before I got introduced to Wiseguys...I was so naive about how this market truely works, and how everyone tries to profit from it...
Thanks again and Best of Luck fellas...VR
VR,
Again, solid stuff my friend. Every single bit of info regarding line movement is an asset to the community. In my humble opinion, until a bettor gets a firm grasp on line movement and the factors that go into the making of the movement, that they will simply LOSE over time.
Good work as always. I love this talk....
"Settling Up" Middles....gotta be honest, never even though of that aspect....so much to get into here it's bananas.
The reason this is so valuable for myself, as I'd suspect most others, is that being so far from the 'Nerve Center' leaves a guy left to wonder what\if\when lines will move...I started a thread Sunday night - again thinking out loud about where I'd expect to see lines move SIMPLY based on, as you say, numbers that just seem off with regard to simple VALUE....looking back, I must say it's hit or miss - most hit. But entirely elementary compared to your insiders view...
Now - IF YOU'D INDULGE ME FOR ANOTHER QUICK FEW QUESTIONS re. these points you make, I'm exceedingly interested in the following:
We used to call these Value Bets (24 HRS): I know Marco and Yourself commented on a Podcast (correct me if wrong) opening lines released are basically the 'Bean Counter' and his slide rule at work - VALUE BETS made here are the rudimentary grinder who loves the number based on his perspective, and plays it right then and there...right?
What I do not understand - WHERE and HOW do ALL the books cooperate? Looks to me like Pinnacle is the opening BOOK on the Board almost everywhere I look - and the other lines-makers follow in, and try to capture the side that the other books are leaving on the backside?
Because I was pleasantly surprised to see how many people really dig into the moves like they do...And they are sharp enough to begin seeing those numbers or games that they look for early on:
On this vein, I asked earlier in forum thread if the avg capper projects lines for week - and analyzes these early steam moves.....looks like the team moves have hit the nerve here; yet still not sure if guys just wait for lines to come out.
2 Real Questions:
1. How does a Guy that's reluctantly depended on OFF-SHORE Books, and 1000's of miles from the Strip stay in tune with Steam? (Other than VR Tweets, of course)
2. These guys that do ALL this 'middling', hedging, ect....IN YOUR OPINION, might it be a wash or result in losses in LONG RUN, after all the VIG is factored, ect...that just say, taking that time & energy and gaining deeper research, and stronger confidence in the SIDE PLAYS that match a good number, in a simple way?
I know NO ONE can or should force a method or anything - and I'd suspect for some sharps the more you do your thing on the strip, ect - the more these things become second nature....from a guy sitting in the middle of bumble%*& Oregon, all this maneuvering and jockeying is OVERWHELMING - and fascinating at the same time.
Makes a guy really wanna pick up and move to Vegas.
Great information VR.