How Do You Account for Home Field in MLB ???

Now that the NHL has concluded, and the NBA is capable of providing only 7 more games for us to wager on...I thought I would continue my series on handicapping MLB. Until this past year, I never really had the opportunity to discuss various handicapping techniques with your average sports bettor. And the sharps these days aren't willing to reveal any new methods that they apply since it is getting more and more difficult to find an edge over the books now that the lines are almost exact across the board and bookmakers just don't have the courage that they used to....or possibly even the "go ahead" from the suits to be aggressive with their lines. So I thought that over these next 2 months, I would try and pass along to you, many of the "secrets" which the syndicates have used to handicapp MLB...and how they determine value.

Today, I want to focus on "Home Field Advantage" and how to accurately account for it when you create your own number to compare to what is being offered. As far as creating a number is concerned, we all have our own way of doing it and I really believe that its the ability to do this which seperates one handicapper from another. It wasn't until I got the chance to speak with more and more up and coming handicappers that I realized that many have never even been taught or explained that when it comes to handicapping a game, for any sport...the NUMBER ONE step for success is how sharp a capper is at creating that number...so I want to try and help with that by showing how to factor in "ome Field Edge", and I believe that my next Blog Post should be on the "most important thing a capper must do to be successful"...

But first, lets break down how I account for this edge....we all pretty much know that the standard for football is to give the home team "3 Points" for being at home...so if 2 equal teams were facing one and other based on your power ratings, then the home team would be -3. For many, thats as far as it goes, but for a real pro...its only the beginning. I say that because a serious capper needs to think at various levels if they plan on beating this market...and giving the Patriots 3 points for being home and giving the Dolphins those same 3 points if they were, is just not going to beat the oddsmakers. In football, 3 must be your starting point and in basketball I have been taught to begin at 4 and go all the way to 6, and possibly down to 2.

So back to football...when you look at the Patriots/Dolphins comparison, giving both teams 3 points for being home just don't seem to be correct. The reasons for that are obvious, but still too many of today's up and coming cappers, who I hope will be tomorrow's sharps and syndicates...are willing to accept whatever that have been told early on in their careers and have just assumed it was correct. But obviously from the comparison above, we see that nothing could be further from the truth. And this is another one of those "Bettor Misconceptions" that I have written about in the past.

Home Field is so important to handicapping that not accounting for it correctly, will make finding "true" value impossible. So how important is it in MLB. We know how important it is in football where 58% of the home teams win their games, and its even more important in the NBA, where 60% of home teams get it done, and the most important...which helped me take the Redwings to win the series...is in the NHL, where home teams win 63% of their games. Now that we know the percentages, how do we factor it into our capping in MLB ??

For myself, it was explained to me that first off we must understand what home-field advantage actually is. When we try to account for a team's strength at home, we need to first look at how they do on the road. Now that may sound strange, but when you think about it...it actually makes perfect sense. Its not possible to determine what kind of home edge a team has if we don't compare how it fairs at home compared to on the road. That is exactly what home-field edge actually is. Its the difference between how well a team plays at home, than it does on the road. Bill James, who has done so much to revolutionize the way we capp MLB, put it simply, "an undefeated team has no home field edge". Now again, that may sound strange, but really think about that statement and you will see how clear it actually is. If a team is 8-0 at home and 8-0 on the road...how do you determine what advantage playing at home really gives this team ???

In MLB, I stated that the home team wins about 58% of the time, so it may not be a very huge edge overall...but thats where the handicapper needs to be able to take each team individually, and really look at their home and away record and try to accurately create a monetary edge. I was taught to begin by giving teams who win 53%-55%, 15 cents....a team who wins 56%-58%, 16 cents....a team who wins 59%-61%, 17 cents....and any team who wins 62% or more of their home games, 18 cents to 20 cents if it exceeds 65%, which is extremely rare over the course of 80 games.

So now you have a foundation, or a starting point to create your number before you being to account for everything else and give that also a monetary value...such as the pitching (starter/ all 3 pens), the offensive and defensive strength (power-rating), and of course the splits involved with each, because in today's MLB we have to also account for Platooning which has become so vital. You are now able to put that number you created to the side, and really get to work, so that when you are finished...you can now make your final home field adjustment and decide if the line is offering you value.

That was just one of the many steps that today's handicapper must be able to deal with if he plans on beating today's oddsmaker because they have also become much sharper. But the one advantage that the handicapper will always have over the oddsmaker, is that the oddsmaker needs to protect his client, the sportsbook...and to do that, many times they are forced to put out a line which is based heavily on public perception, and lightly on actual facts and stats...and your ability to createa strong number will make those instances jump out off the board and scream opportunity.

Of course, after we are finished with the numbers part of it, which deals with strictly facts and stats as I call them...then the handicapper must be able to add his reasoning into the mix...and based on experience and the correct level of thinking applied, he should be armed with the ability to pick more winners than losers by knowing he is getting the best of it more times than not...and with proper money management, he is now a dangerous liability to any bookmaker.

I know that I got very far ahead of myself, since my main objective of this piece was to get across the way that I have been taught to apply home field advantage...but I really wanted to also show you how it all ties in. When you have a match-up, you need to look at it like one huge jig-saw puzzle...and the more pieces that you are able to accurately put back together...the easier it becomes to see what the final result will be, even before it is completed...which in the end, is exactly what prognosticating a sporting event actually is.

I will continue to try and pass along thoughts and experiences, as well as many of the methods that I apply when capping...so please feel free to bring up possible topics and also add your own thoughts about what I write because that is the best way that I can also learn from you all..and possibly improve my own handicapping skills...so tell me, how have you been taught to apply home field edge, and how strongly of a role does it play in your decision making process ??? Thanks again for all your support and best of luck, Vegas-Runner...