Embrace an Indian if you can!
Laffey Should be able to hold Detroit down
Backing Cleveland is never a happy experience, but sometimes you have to go with the facts and let it ride.
The Backside?
Yeah Cleveland has one of the worst bullpens in recent memory, but I'm almost certain that Perez will be replaced by a little known lefty named Tony Sipp (3 innings 6K's and 1 Walk), and I think we might luck out, and see Chulk taking the place of either Lewis or Betancourt.
Wood should close the game in a tight spot. So we may have a surprizing pen if Wedge doesn't screw it up.
Cleveland owns the battle between the bullpens in this game, so it's amazing, we have a slight edge if they get Sipp in there instead of Perez! This is a razor thin hope, and it's why I didn't step out an make this a package play, but we do have the edge, ok?
Among the Starters?
Laffey is in a GREAT spot here. I know this is Detroit, but everything sets up nicely. Laz Diaz is our umpire and he supports Aaron's location zones with a low-end strike zone. Laffey helped Cleveland beat the Rays last season in a 13-2 mauling with Laz behind the plate! The other interesting overlap (one I really don't use much) is that Diaz has seen Cleveland win the last 4 games umped by him and the scoring differential was 27-3 (including a 5-0 win over the Tigers).......also.....Detroit was 0-3 with Diaz in 2008.
Miner is throwing the sinkerball, so he may survive, but he's not throwing strikes very well, and sat below 50% on his K-Rate in the last outing. AND CLEVELAND HAS SHOWN A DEFINITE PROPENSITY TO DRILL MINER (.357 BA/ .961 OPS)
When looking at Laffey: We see that he actually handles Detroit: The sample is small, but it's .211 for the BA.
He's a Lefty and Detroit can smack them around, so we have to be very wary here, ok?
Side note:
Zach Miner's Daytime Era is 21.20
Laffey's Daytime Era is 3.06
Now why does Laffy have a shot here?
He cycled through the Tiger line-up for almost 7 innings last season and averaged 14.7 pitches per inning. He was inducing pop ups and grounders all day, and this is significant, becuase it hints of an inability for the Tiger batters to see his release points. WE HAVE A GROUND BALL UMPIRE CALLING THE SHOTS TODAY, and he's a CONTACT UMP.....so we have to consider the possibility that this game can go Under, but I think the game has a better calling on the Indian side of the equasion.
Why is Laffey Vulnerable?
Guys: He can't throw his slider on the Right Handers. The slider is unhittable, so any Lefty is actually in serious trouble, but the Right handers can tee-off on his Fastball, so this is why the RHB power in that Tiger order are somewhat dangerous. This is another reason to be cautious on playing this game.
BUT
I have to go with Laz Diaz as an added bonus and a King Maker for Laffey, because Aaron actually tore apart Detroit last year with a MONSTEROUS OVER UMPIRE....And now he has a friend behind the plate, so he can run that second rate fast ball on the edge against the right handers, and believe it or not, Ordonez, Inge, Guillen, Polanco, Raburn (faces Lefties), and Cabrera all drop in AVERAGE toward the .250's to .270's range on that low-outside corner!
Look for Laffey to spot that low outside on the Right Handers....if he drifts up, then he might have trouble, but he has the green light to keep it low, so we have a shot here!
I'm personally playing the Tribe +105 today.....
The package will begin to roll out starting tomorrow.......hopefully..
I'm giving you my take on this game, so do what you like with the information.