I've done the math. I've seen the reports and graphs. And it's very clear that the teams that hit too many grounders score the fewest runs. AND, as you know, line drives and fly balls are important factors in generating runs, and walks actually have a bigger impact on scoring runs than fly balls. High strikeout rates and many ground balls lead to victory (Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Timmy Lincecum).
It seems like common sense, and it is.
So I've developed an added system for locating situations where the Grounder and a high K-Rate overlap with a "worm killing" Umpire. I'll look for multiple batters that swat at the low zone, and I'll find the right defenses for our system. It sounds rather simple, but it takes a ton of work. And you rarely see anyone applying this "overlap" technique in real time, with money on the line.
The goal is to send out alerts on potential "worm killers". A "worm killer" is a pitcher that relies on a high ground ball rate for survival. The tricky thing is that there are 4 kinds of "worm killer". You have the boys that reside in the Northeast quadrant of a GB%-K-BF Graph: These are the dominant Killers. Then you have weak Killers in other parts of the graph.
GB% lies on the y-axis (vertical) and "K/batters faced" covers the x-axis (horizon).
I'm trying to be as clear as possible, but when I plot my "worm killers" (ground ball pitchers) on the graphs I can find the dominant pitchers in the Northeast part of the graph, and then we can see the inverse (weak grounding pitchers) in the Southwest zones.
I WANT PITCHERS THAT HAVE HIGH GROUND BALL RATES AND HIGH K-RATES TO FOLLOW.
I WANT PITCHERS WITH HIGH GROUNDBALL RATES AND SMALL K-RATES TO FADE OR AVOID.
The goal is to find dangerous spots on OVERS, or find sweet spots on UNDERS. A dominant "worm killer" can destroy a Total or enhance a Total. The same goes for a weak Killer. The job is to discern the value in each situation.
I've compiled 25 Dominant "worm killers" like the following....Halladay, Sabathia (when healthy), Hernandez, Jimenez, and a number of hidden jewels like Doug Davis? (we'll see).
I've targeted about 30 Weak "worm killers" like the following.....Carmona, Maholm, Lannan, Cook, Kendrick........
When I see the guys on my lists, I'll transpose their umpire's strike zones and run a scan on the opposing batters, the BAIP, the ISO, and a handful of useful periferals, and the end result will be an alert on the likelihood of a low scoring affair, or a dominant performance by a guy like Halladay (Who plays tonight). We might be able to locate double play potential as well......but "luck" might be a factor there.
Why did I come up with this?
Wandy Rodriguez confused the crap out of me yesterday and when I'm confused I go to work.......You can make fun of the "Worm Killer" and the CPI, but I think they're going to make more money than they lose in the second half.
I just wanted you to know where my brain was today......I have to decrease risk and the only way to do it is to WORK my ass off. We can work through the bad luck and probably find a reliable addition to the CPI and The King Maker System. Something has to change, right?