I've done the math. I've seen the reports and graphs. And it's very clear that the teams that hit too many grounders score the fewest runs. AND, as you know, line drives and fly balls are important factors in generating runs, and walks actually have a bigger impact on scoring runs than fly balls. High strikeout rates and many ground balls lead to victory (Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Timmy Lincecum).
It seems like common sense, and it is.
So I've developed an added system for locating situations where the Grounder and a high K-Rate overlap with a "worm killing" Umpire. I'll look for multiple batters that swat at the low zone, and I'll find the right defenses for our system. It sounds rather simple, but it takes a ton of work. And you rarely see anyone applying this "overlap" technique in real time, with money on the line.
The goal is to send out alerts on potential "worm killers". A "worm killer" is a pitcher that relies on a high ground ball rate for survival. The tricky thing is that there are 4 kinds of "worm killer". You have the boys that reside in the Northeast quadrant of a GB%-K-BF Graph: These are the dominant Killers. Then you have weak Killers in other parts of the graph.
GB% lies on the y-axis (vertical) and "K/batters faced" covers the x-axis (horizon).
I'm trying to be as clear as possible, but when I plot my "worm killers" (ground ball pitchers) on the graphs I can find the dominant pitchers in the Northeast part of the graph, and then we can see the inverse (weak grounding pitchers) in the Southwest zones.
I WANT PITCHERS THAT HAVE HIGH GROUND BALL RATES AND HIGH K-RATES TO FOLLOW.
I WANT PITCHERS WITH HIGH GROUNDBALL RATES AND SMALL K-RATES TO FADE OR AVOID.
The goal is to find dangerous spots on OVERS, or find sweet spots on UNDERS. A dominant "worm killer" can destroy a Total or enhance a Total. The same goes for a weak Killer. The job is to discern the value in each situation.
I've compiled 25 Dominant "worm killers" like the following....Halladay, Sabathia (when healthy), Hernandez, Jimenez, and a number of hidden jewels like Doug Davis? (we'll see).
I've targeted about 30 Weak "worm killers" like the following.....Carmona, Maholm, Lannan, Cook, Kendrick........
When I see the guys on my lists, I'll transpose their umpire's strike zones and run a scan on the opposing batters, the BAIP, the ISO, and a handful of useful periferals, and the end result will be an alert on the likelihood of a low scoring affair, or a dominant performance by a guy like Halladay (Who plays tonight). We might be able to locate double play potential as well......but "luck" might be a factor there.
Why did I come up with this?
Wandy Rodriguez confused the crap out of me yesterday and when I'm confused I go to work.......You can make fun of the "Worm Killer" and the CPI, but I think they're going to make more money than they lose in the second half.
I just wanted you to know where my brain was today......I have to decrease risk and the only way to do it is to WORK my ass off. We can work through the bad luck and probably find a reliable addition to the CPI and The King Maker System. Something has to change, right?
9-0 lead for Halladay's boys! King Roy of the Worm Killers did pretty well. :)
Thanks for the kind words, Midnite. :)
DUDE! Worms Armageddon. Played that shit ALL THE TIME as a youngster.
Love the work KM. You are a breath of fresh air with all your out of the box statistical analysis.
Ok Messi! Keep fading, see how that works for ya! :)
Best of luck tonight.
Love your avatars, brother! :)
Keep those square plays coming please, my bank account grows daily fading you
Halladay is a poster child for the Dominant Worm Killer. He's hovering around 20% on his K/BF and he can get us 11-14 grounders.....he's on 5 days rest, due to a flip-flop with Cole.
It seems like he might be able to outduel Jesse Litsch.
Jesse is traditionally a WEAK Worm Killer with low K-potential and lots of action for his defense.
But Jesse's fly ball rate is highly dominant lately and this means that Philly should nail him for a few liners and a home run.
I'm working on tomorrow, since we have no Umpires until 6 PM or 6:30.....so this is just a heads up.
Roy is STRONG.
Litsch is Weak.
But all that is pretty clear without much analysis, right?
Litsch isn't locating AT ALL.