THE GRAND SALAMI REPORT FOR HUMP DAY
This report is just a "forecast" of potential outcomes, based on a few simple indicators. It might save you a few minutes of research if I post some of this for you.
We have 15 games today and 6 of those games have some of the meanest OVER Umpires calling the shots.
Angel Hernandez is "influencing" the Nationals game tonight. He's the guy that screwed up the Tampa/Cleveland game. It's the one whereTampa was up 10-2 in the bottom of the 8th. The Game ended 10-11 as Cleveland strolled across the plate 9 times over the last 2 frames. If you'll remember, the Tampa starter had to get out of several jams in the first few innings, and Carmona was NOT getting any strikes. That game could have hit even higher than 21 runs.
Hernandez has a 1.58 K/BB ratio coupled with a nice 2.2 HR per game, so you can see why the total just jumped from 8.5 to 9 runs on the Total.
Randy Marsh is calling the Phillies game, and if you think Hernandez has a low K/BB ratio, then look at Marsh's Rate: 1.36
Randy Marsh walks almost as many batter as he strikes out (12/9), but he has a low HR number so it's never a slam dunk on the total. If you'll notice, Pelfrey stunk it up in his last start and his k/BB ratio is alarming, so you can assume that the Phils, who bat .271 against Pelfrey will fully take advantage of Marsh's deadly strike zone.
Neutral Umpire in the Cards game.
Sam Holbrook is traditionally one of the meaner OVER LORDS, but he seems to have molded to the leage mandated strike zone. In past years he's hurt the ground baller and that would mean that Volstad and Wainwright might not get the lower end of the zone. Both men may have a lack of rhythm, but the numbers on Holbrook don't mirror is stats from the previous years, so there's no way to see if this is a NEW Holbrook, or if he might suddenly snap back to an OVER UMP. It's hard to say where he stands.
Paul Schreiber is calling the Astros game, and this won't help the control issues of Wandy Rodriguez. Schrieber is allowing 9 walks per game; almost 11 runs; and has a 1.65 K/BB Ratio (OVER).
Max Scherzer and Arizona coughed up 6 runs to the Padres in Schreiber's last game....AT PETCO!
Cole Hamels and Philly choked up 6 runs to Schreiber just a few weeks ago.
Gerry Davis is calling the Yankees Game. He used to be a DEADLY OVER UMPIRE, and he still sits on a 61% strike rate and averages almost 11 runs per game, so you can bank on the fact that Wang won't get a FREE PASS today, ok?
Surprizingly: Wakefield has done will in this strike zone over the years, and it probably has to do with the fact that he CAN pitch to contact, while Wang has to go low to the zone for success.
The Red Sox have scored 6 runs in EACH of their last three games with Davis.
It seems like the Sox are the play here in terms of history.....both teams are patient at the plate, so the 11 on the total is do-able.
Derryl "Shoebox" Cousins rounds out our OVER Umpires. He's in the Detroit game today. His zone shrinks as the game progresses, especially if he's ahead in the pitch count. Generally, he's more neutral, but he can blow up a total in the middle innings so he's always dangerous.
His 1.40 K/BB ratio is one of the scariest indicators for a pitcher!
Detroit scored 11 runs on the Yankees last week with this very same UMP!
More in a moment.....
There is a Side posted in the 30 Play Package as well........
On the bright side, the TB 10-0 loss and this Cubs game were shoulda have been winners... if they had won we would be at 7-8...
This one was definately a Bad beat... Right call on the Cubs, Z was great but not to be today...
And I hope that didn't sound too crass, I'm just beside myself with anger.....truly sorry boys.
Feel free to fire away, but I can't answer you if our pitcher goes almost 9 innings on 3 hits and we get a loss.
It's just a bad beat.
I'm sorry guys.......
We have the Cubs -110 today.
Wandy is almost to 60 pitches after 3 innings and Zambrano had 18 pitches after 2 innings, so maybe we can get these guys.....
This is an awesome breakdown of info... thanks a lot KM!!
Sorry SacLunch, and thanks:
I must have crossed up a number, yes it's .271 with Delgado offering 6 of their 19 total RBI, so yeah....not a good number at all. I erased it. I think Philly could be a nice play tonight, but I saw him do pretty poorly against the Nats two starts ago.
Where did you see that the Mets bat .300 against Hamels? My numbers show 0.276 against the team, and an 0.271 against the current lineup (which includes Delgado at 0.476, and he's out, so against today's lineup it'd be closer to 0.260)
Good to seen baseball content from KM . . . he produces some of the best stuff out there!