Note: I just posted the pick alert over my old Blog so that I wouldn't take up space in the Forum:
I'd like to apologize for not posting plays, but it wasn't out of some innate need to screw anyone.
I've been privately running a 45% win rate (which is not marketable, and not what I'm accustomed to), and it's taken me two weeks to get back on track. Two weeks ago I realized that a sizeable chunk of my system was completely out of whack. The Umpires were operating as if they've gone mad. Let me show you what I mean:
UNDER UMPS under the influence?
Jeff Nelson, Doug Eddings, and Mark Wegner are known as three of the biggest UNDER umpires in the history of the game. EVERY YEAR these guys push games UNDER with their massive strike zones.
BUT this season they are 16-5 OVER
OVER Umpires?
Holbrook, Meriwether, and Chad Fairchild are traditional OVER umpires, and they are currently 8-12 UNDER.
I'm not trying to make excuses, but I would like you to know that I've rebuilt the system by REDUCING THE UMPIRE'S EFFECT on my capping. The new strike zone tracking systems used by the MLB have apparently altered the casual way an umpire calls a game. In fact, I think the guys that have been targeted by MLB management (specifically Jeff Nelson and Doug Eddings for their oversized zones) are altering their zones dramatically.
Also: I've noticed that games with high run totals in the early innings are seeing a halt in scoring.
Oakland and Detroit had a score of 11-7 in the 5th inning yesterday. Noone scored another run for the rest of the game.
In the Cleveland game yesterday there were 12 runs by the 5th and no more for the rest of the game.
On Saturday, in AL games that saw big run totals in the first 5 innings, (3 games) THERE WERE 3 RUNS SCORED OVER 14 INNINGS IN THOSE 3 GAMES. And 3 of the 6 teams in that group have some of the worst relievers in baseball right now! Call it what you like, but the strike zones expanded in those games after the run totals went through the roof in the early innings. Another thing regarding two of those games: most teams don't waste their good relievers in a blowout (and still no runs were scored in the late innings!).
I'm not making accusations or excuses, but it's been a shock to a system that relied on the predictable nature of the UMPIRE. I corrected this by reducing the role of the Umpire in the my system and replaced him with better, and more reliable indicators. I feel pretty good about the last few days, and I believe we can start rolling out the plays.
I deeply apologize for the slow start to the 30 play package, but I didn't want to risk your money until I got a handle on what was happening. The plays will begin rolling out daily starting tomorrow, so please keep an eye out for the releases if you have the package.
Call me what you want to call me, but I NEVER throw out picks unless I'm certain that I have a handle on the games. Frankly speaking, the 30 play package is 0-3-1 (-5.50 units), but it would be closer to 13-17 if I just kept throwing out plays druring the past 4 weeks. I hope my reasoning makes sense, and I'm very eager to get on with the season! Once again, sorry for the slow start.
I have been there and bought the T Shirt my friend. In fact bought the T Shirt Factory as some point in my 17 career.
You will gain more respect in this business King Maker by telling the truth and admitting losses and slumps, and ANY sports bettor and especially pro handicapper like myself understand that this happens.
Slowing it down and backing it off is a proper thing to do in order to reset your approach somewhat to ajust to what was failing you.
Placing emphasis in your handicapping and or power ratings in football on items like umps or refs has some validity, but in MLB I do not, if rarely at all place too much of anything on an ump, other than how we calls balls and strikes (his allowed hitting area for strikes)...and how and what stuff each starter has and how he likes to throw at batters...sometimes you gain a small edge.....it is the players that detrmine the outcome in 95% of the games.
Good luck.
I dont think I have EVER seen somebody so shifty with record as you are. YOU ARE 0-3-1 ON 30 DAY PACKAGE PLAYS. Im sure you figured nobody would track it, but I have and I am going to call you out every time that you continuously post shifty records. The truth is he is 0-3-1 (-5.50 units)
Sorry Apathy....I failed to add the Florida loss...it was a mistake. In some way I thank you for that reminder, but the usual crap that you attach to your posts is tiresome, and it reeks of something other than a sense of honor.
You've become a sort of personal basher for me. More power to you, brother!
That was an honest mistake on my part, and I wasn't trying to hide anything. But you clearly see me as a villian and I suppose the climate here tends to allow a Pregame Blogger (like you) to bash another Blogger (like me) at will.
Like I said: More power to you!
Feel free to save the forum from my evil ways. ;)
And thanks Tony.
Your opinion is always respected by me.
The Umps were a facet of an overlap strategy that took pitching, hitting, fielding, structural, and Ump zones as a whole. Removing them will be no problem, but using faulty assumptions was killing me!
So yeah: The players actually DO the playing! :)
Good luck!!!!!
Great example of how you can totally trust the posted records at Pregame.com - if an innocent mistake is made, it is quickly caught and corrected.
Apathy seems to believe that Kingmaker takes his "breaks" during bad streaks in order to create a new category of picks after he resumes (specifically, "post-break" picks).
I do not believe that, and here the main reason . . . KM would make more money selling his picks during a bad streak (cause many of his fans still buy during those times) than any extra money he'll make from having a post-break win streak to tout. KM takes breaks because he is truly re-thinking his capping approach.
I disagree with Kingmaker in regards to a "bashing" culture . . . in fact, it is the opposite: a place where everyone feels safe to point out what they see as the truth. That is very healthy. Like it is healthy for me to disagree sometimes too. I wish Apathy would be a little less harsh sometimes, but I love how much trust in grown when we all know that so many others are policing the truth.
just a second here fido, kevin says 0-2-1, u say 0-3-1. fine. but shifty? my ass. and to get on ur bullhorn and shout out "iam sure you figured nobody would track it" is an accusation of foul play that has the equivolent of 'trying to stretch a nats ass over a doorknob' not much subtance to it. not even kelso sturgeon would try to fudge up a short record like that.
and in your last staement u state to a fact that kevin 'continuously post shiffty records.' are u referring to this present record of 0-3-1 as being a continuous posting of fraudulent records? or r u referring to prior postings of fraudulent records that go beyond this current 0-3-1 record? cause if thats the case then i'd sure like to see the facts/proof
GEEZ...BIG DEAL OVER ONE "L"??? SIMMER BRO
Kevin, I for one, would like to say "THANK YOU"......for stopping the plays. Had you continued putting out plays during the time game results were not matching expected game results and it seemed like the few we saw were quite a bit off, and we were at the end of the 30-day package sitting at 13-17, under 50% and out of pocket the cost of the subscription, plus the losses, yeah.....I can't imagine there'd be many happy customers.
And we'd be sitting here evaluating you on work that wasn't your best and that wouldn't be fair to you either. Now, hopefully the adjustments are in place and positive results will follow. Thx.
Let's get past it. :)
I had a Blog about Glen Perkins of Minny and his difficulty with Left handed bats (a few weeks ago).....We pushed on a team total in that Blog, but it's worth a quick look if you want to think about the Yanks team Total or the Over in general..
Yanks throw up a ton of switches and lefts so we may have a nice shot at some Yankee runs....
I'll bump the Blog....
Here's the link to the Glen Perkins Blog from a few weeks ago:
pregame.com/.../the-crappy-pitcher-index-alert-on-mr-perkins.aspx
Kev I'll been around for couple years now and sorry you are a shifty person, When you were KILLING NCAA basketball 2 years ago, I went searching in my records and seen you missed a game we won on your record SORRY YOU SHIFTY DUDE and I think pregame needs to launch a CSI on you!!! Am calling GRISSOM MYSELF because RJ is on this PREGAME SHIFTINESS am sure. JUST REMEMBER KM YOUR BEING WATCHED I GOT MY CSI STARTER KIT OUT NOW!!!
Kingmaker should feel great so many are coming to his defense - it's a great sign of how much he as contributed over the years.
Great Stuff KING. Just one more reason why you are my favorite Pregame Pro, including myself. I am seeing a counselor about that though, and working my way through it. I have to go take a pill now.
HA! :)
I need to get "Shifty" and shift into a winning mode!
One thing I want to look hard at tonight is the Yankee team total. I'm down on 5 Runs at -120, and what I need to get out of my way is the readings on a Lefty pitcher that CANT pitch to left handed bats??????
The Yanks front a bunch of Switch Hitters, so I need to see if they all line up on the Left (due to Perky's bad numbers on the Left) or do they line up Right Handed to avoid the Left on Left disadvantage.
They should line up Lefty, in my opinion, but it needs to be seen.
The Yanks hit Lefties better in general, so let's see what they do.
hey washcars, everybody knows that grissom is gone and lawernce fishburn is in u shifty guy u