Note: I just posted the pick alert over my old Blog so that I wouldn't take up space in the Forum:
I'd like to apologize for not posting plays, but it wasn't out of some innate need to screw anyone.
I've been privately running a 45% win rate (which is not marketable, and not what I'm accustomed to), and it's taken me two weeks to get back on track. Two weeks ago I realized that a sizeable chunk of my system was completely out of whack. The Umpires were operating as if they've gone mad. Let me show you what I mean:
UNDER UMPS under the influence?
Jeff Nelson, Doug Eddings, and Mark Wegner are known as three of the biggest UNDER umpires in the history of the game. EVERY YEAR these guys push games UNDER with their massive strike zones.
BUT this season they are 16-5 OVER
Holbrook, Meriwether, and Chad Fairchild are traditional OVER umpires, and they are currently 8-12 UNDER.
I'm not trying to make excuses, but I would like you to know that I've rebuilt the system by REDUCING THE UMPIRE'S EFFECT on my capping. The new strike zone tracking systems used by the MLB have apparently altered the casual way an umpire calls a game. In fact, I think the guys that have been targeted by MLB management (specifically Jeff Nelson and Doug Eddings for their oversized zones) are altering their zones dramatically.
Also: I've noticed that games with high run totals in the early innings are seeing a halt in scoring.
Oakland and Detroit had a score of 11-7 in the 5th inning yesterday. Noone scored another run for the rest of the game.
In the Cleveland game yesterday there were 12 runs by the 5th and no more for the rest of the game.
On Saturday, in AL games that saw big run totals in the first 5 innings, (3 games) THERE WERE 3 RUNS SCORED OVER 14 INNINGS IN THOSE 3 GAMES. And 3 of the 6 teams in that group have some of the worst relievers in baseball right now! Call it what you like, but the strike zones expanded in those games after the run totals went through the roof in the early innings. Another thing regarding two of those games: most teams don't waste their good relievers in a blowout (and still no runs were scored in the late innings!).
I'm not making accusations or excuses, but it's been a shock to a system that relied on the predictable nature of the UMPIRE. I corrected this by reducing the role of the Umpire in the my system and replaced him with better, and more reliable indicators. I feel pretty good about the last few days, and I believe we can start rolling out the plays.
I deeply apologize for the slow start to the 30 play package, but I didn't want to risk your money until I got a handle on what was happening. The plays will begin rolling out daily starting tomorrow, so please keep an eye out for the releases if you have the package.
Call me what you want to call me, but I NEVER throw out picks unless I'm certain that I have a handle on the games. Frankly speaking, the 30 play package is 0-3-1 (-5.50 units), but it would be closer to 13-17 if I just kept throwing out plays druring the past 4 weeks. I hope my reasoning makes sense, and I'm very eager to get on with the season! Once again, sorry for the slow start.
Maybe we can do something with this. :)
Back to work.
WAHOO WINNER... saved my day ... almost
Yeah: I may just die.
I never assume anything...one year it was 1-1 after Smoltz and another ACE did good work on an 8UNDER, but then there were like 8 runs in extra innings and I lost, so NO....I aint too happy right now, and you know how things have been....... :(
I will hang myself if Colorado puts up runs and this game goes over. . .
We have Under 9 +105 in the Houston/Colorado game for 2-Units tonight
I have followed Kevin for a while, and I agree with Mschmidt that he has always first and foremost had his clients welfare in mind. He does not put out plays unless he believes they are correct. Anyone who knows him , knows that. I guess maybe some ppl would prefer he posted plays daily even though he has no confidence. But of course, when they lose their ass, he will be labeled a lousy handicapper. Maybe he should have posted them with a note saying he is not very confident in the play. Just to get the 30 day package done.
KIng...Best of Luck Brother...I got your message and just wanted to let you know that I don't believe that I have anything planned during that time...I'm going away for a few days soon just to get away from Vegas, like I do pretty much each year...But, I think we scheduled it for sooner than mid-July...Kick some ass, VR
i bought the 30 day package the other day and i just logged into the memebers page and can see the link to buy the play but i dont see the play listed. this site and customer service really sucks. i have to go out for the day and play cards at wsop and cant get your play, ill call cs now but it will be a confusing call. this is just FYI, maybe you should use another site for your selections, something with better cs and ease of memebers logging in and getting picks.
I posted a 2-Unit Total in the 30 Play Package
I like it, but it may need explaining....I'm doing the write-up right now.....
It's here if anyone has an interest:
First off, I think we should be really glad that we have paid handicappers on this site that don't just sell picks to get in as much money as they can day in day out.
I do think though there's improvement to be made when people wanting to buy a package, in terms of what you can expect from it.
I think (unfortunately) alot of people don't really know the handicapper and their betting style before investing their money. You could blame the one buying the package for not doing their homework, but I think there could be done more in that department.
Just an example: anyone buying a Vegas-Runner package could be made aware that he has a fairly large bankroll to work with cause of the high-volume betting style VR follows.
Lets start the streak!
Apathy: I didn't do it
Back to work tomorrow. I'm actually a bit mad that I didn't feel good enough to post one today, and on Sunday a line got away from me overnight, so that we lost value in the morning. I wanted to see lineups, and the line jumped on me.
We'll get down to business tomorrow, but I wont breeze through anything.
im trying to figure out why my reply was deleted from this thread. . .
I agree Buckethead...I just let it get to me.....I AM starting tomorrow, but won't just hump it to get a package done. I just lost my head for a moment AND WONT GO SCREWING WITH ANYTHING. I feel really good about what we can do.
No worries. I saw Eric's post and lost my temper for a second. Perhaps I should delete it. Or learn to simply stay away from the forum. :)