One Step Up. Two Steps Back: Houston has a problem!

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One Step Up. Two Steps Back: Houston has a problem!

Sacks, Penalties, Turnovers and Heartburn!

Why is San Francisco the worst team against the spread (25%)?

The Niners have allowed 34 sacks and they are -10 in their turnover differential. No matter what they do, those two fundamental anchors will always drag them down. In fact, the Niners are actually one of the better teams in the NFC on third down conversions (6th best), and they are 6 of 9 on 4th down conversions! On top of this, San Fran is one of the least penalized teams in the league!

Did you know that the Niners are actually in the top 5, in the entire NFL, in yards per rush? Turnovers create a deficit on the scoreboard, and sacks lead to passing downs, so San Fran is always forced to move away from their strength (Running the ball), and have to pass the ball. All of this is caused by sacks and turnovers. All other faults become pronounced from these two seeds of discord!

We can treat the Giants as our microcosm and expand our seach to find a few hidden gems today. We need to find NEGATIVE YARDAGE TEAM that is catching a low line, and we need to exploit this fundamental offensive disease.

Is this one of those teams?

Houston is a Dangerous team to wager on: They've allowed 20 sacks so far, and that's a moderately bad number, but the negativity increases when you see their -8 turnover differential. If we use the Niner paradigm from the top of the page, then we SHOULD be very wary of backing Houston against a team like Baltimore.

What's worse is that.........

Houston is UNLIKE the Niners in one key area. I stated that the Niners are actually disciplined with their penalties, but when you look at Houston the numbers become ugly. The Texans are the third worst team in the entire NFL in terms of penalties. If I loosely calculate the average penalty yardage for the Texans and tack on about 30 yards in negative sacks, then the Texans GIVE their opponents an average of about 152 yards per game.

You have to make those yards up in other areas, but how can you do that if you're coughing the ball up more than anyone in the AFC (aside from Denver).


This is another reason why Baltimore is a STRONG Rush Dominance Play.......



Good Luck today!


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  • Damn, what is going on with you Kevin? All he did was ask you a question.

    Look, please don't get mad at me for interfering & sticking my 2-cents in,  but I've seen Punt-Wind Screens from you before on football games. The bigger question I have is why all the hate toward GF, who is up over +100 Units on the year, free of charge?

  • Wind in baseball...never in football, and that was a Stadium Screen where the effects of nature, geography, and location MATCHED WITH LINEUP CONFIGUARATION can tend to affect outcomes in baseball. I've never had a PUNTING screen. Punting is a stat column. A SCREEN is a set of techical indicators that work together to form an expectation, so punting would be one sliver of a screen that is assessing the overall expectation of field position, talent, and data.

    It's cool, GF. You went onto other sites to attack me in the past, so I have a hard time with your comments. It's hard to get past that.

    In my last blog, about Texas and Texas Tech, you went in there and gave me a big "Huh?" and stated that Texas was never in the game. I had to come in and point out that Texas was within 3 points with 11 minutes to play, and my 3 point spread was still VERY alive.  But you posted that my line was never in a position to cover? WTF? That was your last bump on a thread of mine.

    So don't come off like some wounded sheep.

    We can agree to disagree, and leave it at that. Niether one of us needs the other to do well. We can definitely get along from a distance. At least I know I don't need to post in your threads to get more views of my name.

    GL with the upcoming week!

  • Yes, you've had PUNT & WIND screens before and you know it, I was simply asking you, fi you were gonna be posting them again, due to the WEATHER changes around the country......not sure where I am off on this, was asking a simple question.....and also told u good job on more than one can not like me, thats is what it is.....GL with upcoming week.

  • Good luck to you, Rob.

    I simply outlined my questions in a polite manner. Another "Huh?" is what I got.  :)

    Keep kicking tail!

    And keep winning!

    You and I are like oil and water, so I've done my best to stay out of your way, but you tend to want to stir the pot. Is there some overriding need for you to bump my threads? i thought we were both under the impression that we should separate ourselves.

    There's nothing I can do about what you do, or say. You had once said that you would exit the whole drama, but you still come around.

    Do you remember saying that you were done?

    Have I ever had a Punt Screen or a Wind Screen?

    You just wrote this:

    "...and was wondering if you were gonna have the WIND SCREENS  up or PUNT SCREENS."

    It was a bad covering of tracks, Rob.

    I just want  you to keep dominating so that Pregame grows with great cappers like you. My success is tied to the success of Pregame, so it makes no sense for me to poke into your threads and speak nonsense.

    I'm not sure why you like to come over here and start something. I have no interest in this crap.

    And to question that this is paranoia, after what we've actually experienced is a bit incorrect.

    I'm done with it.

  • Huh?? Was simply asking you a question as the weather is now in full swing around the country.....and was wondering if you were gonna have the WIND SCREENS  up or PUNT SCREENS.......not sure why the paranoia, it will DESTROY ya......once again , good job today Kevin, and keep WINNING.

  • Whatever you need, GF.

    Punts, Return value, touchbacks, are all part of any game........wind is not much of a concern, but rather an observation that needs no explaining and is usually a game day condition. I have to ask this question, because your own question about the wind screen and the punt screen appears to be "tongue-and-cheek".

    Are you inferring that I developed the Rush Dominance approach to mask a poor record, like many touts do?

    As is the case when a guy claims to be 100% on all 5 Unit plays, but is really sub .500 on all others?

    So when I say I'm 5-1 on Rush Dominance plays, then you are assuming I'm masking some deeper truth? I'm 17-10 on posted NFL plays, and 23-23 on College plays. I don't sell my work unless it has value to a client, so I wait until I believe a certain system is worth someone's time. As you know, my record is in full view here, and at an independant monitoring service, so I've really got nothing to hide, nor do my clients think I whip up a screen just to cover some unsightly blemish. Are you inferring that I'm creating a screen to cover something? 17-10 is very servicable.

    If so, then I have to say that most people know that I tend to build my own approaches to every sport. This is my first season of football, and the system is still in development. I really like where the NFL work is heading.

    If not, I hope you can see where your statement is being seen as a slight, instead of a congratulation.

    Based on our past history, your comment is being mis-construed by others, and I can agree that it reads as if you're giving another back-handed compliment.

    Either way, keep up the great work, you've been a huge asset to the forums!

  • Any Punt or Wind screens coming for the following week Kevin?

    nice job today.

  • Houston performed as expected!

    4 turnovers.

    10 penalties

    3 sacks.

    Tons of negative yardage.

    Consistancy is the better part of failure.

    Easy Win.

  • I thought about bumping the Ravens to a 2-Unit play, but I'm going to stay at 1-Unit and see how this plays out............