Inside the Steam - Week of Sept 30th

 

The following article is from Stan Sharp as told to (and posted by) a Pregame.com staff writer. We have convinced Stan to sit for an occassional interview that we'd convert into an article.

Stan Sharp took the time to discuss some of the Key Line Moves this week as we will call this series "Inside the Steam" 

 

Wisconsin @ Minnesota
Line opened Minnesota (Pick) and is now (-3)
Interesting that for the second week in a row Minnesota is involved in a major move. Stan's take is that Vegas and the Wise Guys just don't see eye to eye on this team. Last Week Minnesota took a lot of money as Northwestern went from -2 to Pick late and even -1 in a few spots. This week looks like the sharps are getting their money in early. Stan has found that in the long run the Wise Guys will be on the right side when they disagree that much with Vegas. Stan suggests you respect the Steam here and give Minnesota some early consideration.


Kansas St vs Iowa St
Line opened Iowa St (-1) and is now (-3)

This game took a huge move right away as it went from -1 to -3 on Iowa St. Two things to point out is the fact that this game is not being played at Iowa St but rather at Kansas City. Even with a site that favors the road team this game was bet hard for the Iowa St side. Stan's take is that the Wise Guys wanted to get in front of the public money which should come in on Iowa St off of back to back blowouts. Don't be surprised if you see the public push this line over 3 that the wise guys will come back in late in the week betting the dog and trying to get the middle with the magic number of 3. Sometime Steam isn't always Steam but a Smoke Screen for a later move.


LSU @ Georgia

Line opened Georgia (-1) and is now (-3)

Here's another game in which Stan feels that the Wise Guys are setting up a move for later in the week. They jumped all over Georgia at -1 and drove it to -3 knowing the public will want Georgia at home in a pick the winner situation. The public isn't impressed with LSU even though they are highly ranked. Stan looks for the money  to continue to come in on Georgia as the public piggy backs the early move. However as the week nears Saturday Stan expects LSU to take the late money as the Wise Guys buy back with the Dog especially if it moves thru that key number of 3.  Too many times people see moves and jump all over them thinking it's big steam when in reality the public is just helping the wise guys out by playing follow the leader which creates the buy back situation at a better price decreasing their risk by getting either a better price on the vig (taking +3 at even money) or having the number go to the magic 3.5. Stan's take away here is never blindly follow line moves thinking they are Steam.  Understand fully what the move is really all about.

Stan Sharp is a Professional Bettor in Las Vegas that has won 57.5% of his plays over a 30+ month period. Stan only bets one game a day but the work begins early in the week as Stan monitors how the lines move and why the money is being bet the way it is.

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