Daddy, don't hit me!
Cody Hawkins is back in black (and gold)... After Colorado starting QB, Tyler Hansen, ruptured his spleen this last Saturday, Cody Hawkins was called back into battle. Hawkins, a senior, was the Colorado starter for three seasons and also happens to be the coach's son. He's one of just two other guys in Colorado history to pass for over 6000 yards in his career; yet after three straight seasons as the starter, he was demoted coming into this season. Now it's his turn again...
Does this situation remind you of the one at Arizona? It should - The one time starter gets demoted only to be thrown back into the fight after an injury. Time and time again you'll see the demoted player step up big time. And in this situation we're talking about a Senior who certainly knows the ins and outs of the offense.
Hawkins has struggled all his career with decision making, but he's mobile, tough, and has an above average arm. As always, the line moves in favor of the opponent (Oklahoma) when the 2nd string is called to service, and just like last week... My claim is that this move is the wrong one.
I'm not saying the Buffs will roll into Norman and beat the Sooners, I'm just saying a 2.5 point move in favor of a dejected Oklahoma team is unjust.
... And Nothing excites bettors more than a team that "needs" a win.
They need to win, therefore they will... How often do you see columns, writeups, reports, and broadcasts from analysts that predict a victory based on motivation? It's especially prevalant with our Boise State's and TCU's of the world. Big spread after big spread, day after day, someone is out there using the logic "Boise will win by 40, because they NEED to make a statement."
Don't get me wrong, it happens in the NFL as well. Just this last week: "San Francisco will cover against Carolina, because they can't afford to start 1-6," "Dallas will win Monday night, because they need to," "Minnesota will beat Green Bay because they need to get back into the conference conversation." Point is... It happens all the time, and it's logic that no one should ever use...
Unless you can prove that their opponent has no stake in the game whatsoever, it really doesn't matter what (Boise, TCU, Dallas, Minnesota etc) NEED to do. Because at the end of the day, La Tech ( for example) NEEDS to not be embarrassed on National TV just as bad as Boise NEEDS to win by 50. And Green Bay NEEDS to beat Brett Favre just as bad as Minnesota NEEDS to turn things around... Anytime the best teams in the world NEED to win, there is always the inherent NEED for their opponent to make a statement against the best teams in the world. Motivation is not one sided.
"Sharp Money" steamed the hell out of that one!... Time and time again I see a commonly used phrase when referring to line moves early in the week. It's always "Sharps" did this, "Sharps" did that. Let me be clear - if you go into your offshore betting account at Cris/Bookmaker (one of the early release books) as soon as the lines are released for the next weekend... Proceed to "Max Bet" (1000, 5000, whatever it may be) a line within 5 minutes of the release.... the line will move. You could be an absolute nobody in the sports betting world, but if you lay big money on a Monday night, you'll move some lines.
Point being, the first move isn't always the sharp move. It can be a line adjustment, or just a reaction to big money; and big money does not necessarily equal sharp bettor. Square bettors come in the form of $10 bettors and $5000 bettors, just remember that a line moving one direction does not necessarily ensure sharp action on that side. Hell, it could just be Charles Barkley.
love it.......
As always.. Agreements/Disagreements welcome. I'm sure some will look to back Oklahoma this week, citing the "bounceback" angle as a key, no? Obviously Colorado has been terrible on the road...
Smash Mouth Football at it's finest! Haha
Good points Sac.
LOLLLLLL you said, "It could be Charles Barkley"
Hawkins sucks lol, name me one kid who was a QB in college that played for his father that is/was good?
Riley Dodge was good.. but instead of benching him, they just fired his Dad last week. HAHA.
Good point though, it doesn't happen often. I'll say this, though, talent wise I think Cody is a good player. In terms of his decision making... He's Brett Favre on Monday night in Green Bay.
LOLLLLLLLLLLLL
Good info once again Sac...intersting read on the early line moves, will begin to try to use that in my favor...i do usually like to pay attention to early line moves, but now i know a little better! thanks.
just wondering if you have any thoughts on the MNF game in regards to that "NEED" to win angle... initially i thought this would apply perfectly, and Marco actually says this on the podcast today, that Dallas being always the "public" team plus the fact that its a must win for them, figured to have a heavy percentage of bets tonight in their favor..however, the action is rather split....i was talking to a friend of mine last night, and i try to remain unbiased since I am a cowboys fan, but i said that i felt most were giving up on the cowboys after last week's loss in the "loser's season ends" game, and at the same time, buying into the hype that the giants have been rolling with recently...i was encouraged to hear that Marco had similar thoughts, wondering what you think, Sac? could this be a case where maybe that angle doesn't apply because of the split action?
That's a great question.. And I think the best way to look at it is like this.... Don't think of the "Need to win" thing as an angle. In other words, I'm not saying you should never bet on a team that the public perceives as needing of a win, I'm just saying there needs to be more substance.
Dallas is a good bet tonight if, in your mind, they are undervalued due to their rough start to the season. They are the right play if you have a matchup angle, and they are the right play if this is a lookahead and/or letdown for their opponent. My only point was: They aren't a good play simply because they need a win.
For example.. Boise State vs. SJSU a couple weeks back. Boise was favored by 42, and yes, they needed a blowout. Yet, they were also the right play simply based on SJSU's extreme inability to matchup, motivation aside.
.... Whereas those betting Boise tomorrow night will be basing it off of a "Need to win" type of angle. Because there aren't many folks, who actually know La Tech, that would agree they are 32 points worse than Boise in terms of the matchup.
ohh ok, gotcha...makes total sense...yeah, definitely can't back a team JUST on that lone "NEED" factor and nothing else to support it ... cuz in that case we would be betting ML on La Tech cuz they NEED to win or else they dig themselves a huge hole falling 2.5 games behind boise st in the conference! lol (joke) ...but in all seriousness, i understand your point and agree with it. I appreciate the insight!
La Tech definitely needs a win Tuesday... Haha... I'll say this about La Tech though... TONY FRANKLIN. Offensive Coordinator, amazing coach. Turned that offense at Middle Tennessee into a force, after having great success at Auburn as well. Auburn was in shambles when he left, just as MTSU is in shambles without him this year. Only a matter of time before that La Tech offense competes at an elite level.
that's deep Sac! ..i dont even know if "LA" stand for Los Angeles or Louisiana!?!? lol jk ..but i certainly didn't know much about this team..
Sac, while I think the La Tech ffensive coordinator is sharp and the fast paced offense may move the ball, the boise st defense is no slouch and are tough at home. La Tech is also among the worst in turnover differential and tis offense will turn over the ball setting p short fields for he boise st offense. Finally, the La Tech defense is just bad and horrendous on he road. It is boise or nothing in this ne for me. While I don't recommend this on a reglar basis, I think th best value bet with some of these high powered teams with inflated spreads is the first half bet. It eliminates the back door cover and in the worst case scenario where he team isn't covering in the first half, it sets up a high value second half bet (of course game flow has to be accounted for).
Pk, I agree with your 1st half wager theories. However, Boise played the bottom 2 WAC teams..both are horrible. Note that the backup QB was a result of some of the turnovers for La Tech. I will be on La Tech. My biggest wager will be on San Jose St this weekend. Good luck.