Sac Says... (Welcome Back Cody!)

Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs
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Sac Says... (Welcome Back Cody!)

                                                           

                                                                  Daddy, don't hit me!

Cody Hawkins is back in black (and gold)...  After Colorado starting QB, Tyler Hansen, ruptured his spleen this last Saturday, Cody Hawkins was called back into battle.  Hawkins, a senior, was the Colorado starter for three seasons and also happens to be the coach's son.  He's one of just two other guys in Colorado history to pass for over 6000 yards in his career;  yet after three straight seasons as the starter, he was demoted coming into this season.  Now it's his turn again...

Does this situation remind you of the one at Arizona?  It should - The one time starter gets demoted only to be thrown back into the fight after an injury.  Time and time again you'll see the demoted player step up big time.  And in this situation we're talking about a Senior who certainly knows the ins and outs of the offense.

Hawkins has struggled all his career with decision making, but he's mobile, tough, and has an above average arm.  As always, the line moves in favor of the opponent (Oklahoma) when the 2nd string is called to service, and just like last week... My claim is that this move is the wrong one. 

I'm not saying the Buffs will roll into Norman and beat the Sooners, I'm just saying a 2.5 point move in favor of a dejected Oklahoma team is unjust.

 

                                              

                          ... And Nothing excites bettors more than a team that "needs" a win.

They need to win, therefore they will...  How often do you see columns, writeups, reports, and broadcasts from analysts that predict a victory based on motivation?  It's especially prevalant with our Boise State's and TCU's of the world.  Big spread after big spread, day after day, someone is out there using the logic "Boise will win by 40, because they NEED to make a statement."

Don't get me wrong, it happens in the NFL as well.  Just this last week: "San Francisco will cover against Carolina, because they can't afford to start 1-6," "Dallas will win Monday night, because they need to," "Minnesota will beat Green Bay because they need to get back into the conference conversation."  Point is... It happens all the time, and it's logic that no one should ever use...

Unless you can prove that their opponent has no stake in the game whatsoever, it really doesn't matter what (Boise, TCU, Dallas, Minnesota etc) NEED to do.  Because at the end of the day, La Tech ( for example) NEEDS to not be embarrassed on National TV just as bad as Boise NEEDS to win by 50.  And Green Bay NEEDS to beat Brett Favre just as bad as Minnesota NEEDS to turn things around... Anytime the best teams in the world NEED to win, there is always the inherent NEED for their opponent to make a statement against the best teams in the world.  Motivation is not one sided.

 

                                          

"Sharp Money" steamed the hell out of that one!...  Time and time again I see a commonly used phrase when referring to line moves early in the week.  It's always "Sharps" did this, "Sharps" did that.  Let me be clear - if you go into your offshore betting account at Cris/Bookmaker (one of the early release books) as soon as the lines are released for the next weekend... Proceed to "Max Bet" (1000, 5000, whatever it may be) a line within 5 minutes of the release.... the line will move.  You could be an absolute nobody in the sports betting world, but if you lay big money on a Monday night, you'll move some lines.

Point being, the first move isn't always the sharp move.  It can be a line adjustment, or just a reaction to big money; and big money does not necessarily equal sharp bettor.  Square bettors come in the form of $10 bettors and $5000 bettors, just remember that a line moving one direction does not necessarily ensure sharp action on that side.  Hell, it could just be Charles Barkley.

 

  • Once again, props to la tech backers.

  • nice call sac, mike and all boston backers. they dominated most of the game.

  • Thanks Sac for the great info.

    I am not ure if it was Mike or you that said in the season preview that this USC defense will struggle early for precisly the reason you mntioned above (not praicing in pad and hitting because they were worried about injuries in pratice).

    I am loking for a big game from that defense and I agree with a post you made in one f your online chats that this oregon offense isn't that great. This game to me reminds of nebraska-texas except oregon is on he road.

  • I'll say this about USC this weekend.  At the beginning of the season.. They practiced in gym clothes.. No shoulder pads, nothing.  And that softness showed, especially on defense.

    For the last three weeks they've picked up the intensity, practiced at game speed, and knocked eachothers heads off in practice.  Obviously we saw that intensity translate into a big win against Cal.  And from that standpoint, I think it's fair to assume this team is improving.

    Also, during the bye week... USC had practice from 6-6:45 every single morning just to walkthrough Oregon's schemes and nothing else.  Then had their regularly scheduled practice on top of it that afternoon.

    This team is acting like this is the National Championship game.  And while I don't like Kiffin either, he's definitely making some changes to keep his kids focused on competing at a high level.  

    At the same time all this was goingon.. Oregon was taking both Friday and Saturday off.  As opposed to using the extra days as a "half" bye week.

  • Gotta run now. Will catch u guys later tonight.

  • Sac, i completely agree that needing to put impressive victories and putting up impressive victories are completely different animals.I outlined the reasons why i like Boise. All i am saying is that boise is not going to take their foot off the gas pedal even if they are up 40 after what oregon did to UCLA last thursday night.

    Lane Kiffin, I hate with a passion but I do think USC will put up one of their better efforts on the field in this game. I am waiting to look at all the beat reports and local news to get a better idea of where the players heads are at.

  • Very good stuff.  All that's left now is to sit back and see how it plays out.  Because I can't argue with anything you said!

  • Great points Sac.Here is my counter.

    I am a huge Shaq fan and he is a good but not great defender. he is also a good rebounder but just around the rim. the rebounding by the heat guards will be one of the keys to this game.

    The celtics have a huge size advantage at center but look at miami to neutralize that by slashing and driving to the rim putting the bigs in foul trouble.

    pace of the game: Miami is going to want to run and run while boston tries to make it a half court game as they can't run with miami. In the half court, i will take the wing players that can dominate and take over the game.

    The key to a celts win today wil be how rondo plays and i think this is where the challenge will be come crunch time as the problem for boston becomes who is the go to guy. With miami, the ball is going to wade or lebron and they are just going to be asked to make a play. Again, i think this where the unstructured approach may prove to be an advantage for miami because later in the season, they will try to run more well defined and practiced sets as opposed to leaving it to the players creativity.

  • Now don't give Kiffin to much credit here guys.  He's still an idiot.

  • i'm happy to see you think it's a scary game in LA this weekend too!

    I completely agree!

  • Boise needing to keep putting up impressive victories and Boise having the ability to put up impressive victories are two different things!

  • Good point mike and i agree the line is inflated but I don't know if there is enough value on the dog to cover. Also road dogs are even more difficult to get behind as huge dogs - they have a higher probability of unravelling.

    Boise has to keep putting up impressive victories with oregon blowing out pac 10 teams and for virgina tech's resurgence to continue. (off topic, I like USC this week to put a real scare into oregon).

  • PK... I think that's a really good point you make about the one on one ability of the Miami Heat.  It could very well be an advantage.  

    But when it comes to matchups in this game... While D-wade and Lebron may have an edge over Allen and Pierce... Boston still has two amazing forces in the middle with Shaq and Jermaine O'neal.  Both extremely good defenders.  Both not only create mismatches on the offensive side of the ball for the Heat (clogging up the lane), but they create mismatches defensively for the Heat as well.  

    Who on their team can guard either Shaq or Jermaine 1-on-1?  Nobody.  But you can't double and leave Ray Allen or Paul Pierce open, can you?

    It's the new Big 3 against the Old Big 3... But Boston just so happens to have a 4th (The Oneal's).  Miami did not build there team around matching up well with the likes of the Boston Celtics, whereas Boston brought in players they knew would specifically give them an edge against Miami.

    Regardless of midseason, preseason, playoffs.  I would argue that Boston has a matchup edge against Miami, plain n simple.

  • i always want to be a part of a conversation that includes the like of Sac, PK, D, and B.

    Good stuff here.

    I totally get the first half wager, as it does take away the crazy back door cover.

    But i can't forget something i consider when it comes to backing big underdogs. The ability to step on the field and believe they can compete. After what happened last year between these two, i believe La. Tech thinks they can hang. Also, i've see what these odds were before the season started, and a 9.5 point adjustment from then to now just doesn't make sense to me.

    Interesting game here for sure.....

  • Good Luck dfresh. hate being on other side of you but I believe that boise in the right side with a huge first half.

    In other games, I like the trailerblazers to win and cover, lakers to win (not sure if they will cover or not) and the heat to win. Call me crazy but i think the heat not having played together as much works to their advanatge tonight bcos there will be more one on one plays and that is where the heat has the edge (remember the huge playoff game where wade single handedly won the game). As the heat start playing more of a team game later in the season, the advantage swings to the celtics. I liked the under initially in this game but with the turnovers the heat will probably have, it could be easy scores and a pass on the total. Curious to get everyone's thoughts on this and sorry Sac if i am going off topic here.