There is an art to picking an upset and boxing is one of the easiest sports to spot one when it is coming. That is why I was able to pick the two biggest boxing upsets of 2008.Antonio Margarito over Miguel Cotto
AndManny Pacquiao over Oscar De La Hoya
Now I am about to pick the 1st major upset of 2009 (sorry Arizona fans you may or may not get a surprise next week with my Super Bowl pick) and it is so easy to see you should be taking your entire paycheck, your tax refund (don't front you do rapid refund), your baby momma tax refund check or whatever money you won on my 2-0 NFL Championship weekend picks and put it on:<b>SHANE MOSLEY BEATING ANTONIO MARGARITO</b>
You are probably thinking to yourself:<i>"But BonaFide one Cotto beat Mosley and Magarito beat Cotto so this is an easy win for Margarito right?"</i>
My friend that is why I am paid 25c an hour to run this site because sometimes you have to look beyond the obvious.When predicting an upset you have to look at three key factors:............
3- Gut feeling
I have it on good authority that Margarito after beating Cotto got a taste of "Being the Man" and liked it and liked it a lot. Some fighters can handle that mantle of "Being the Man" and still fight at an elite level (see: Mayweather, Floyd) others once they get a taste of being the "King" lose their desire to defend the throne.
Margarito's motivation for his entire career was being the boxer
nobody wanted to give a chance to. He built a reputation on being the
most "ducked" fighter, but ironically after he beat Cotto he started to
duck fighters (see: Williams, Paul). He even had to be prodded into taking the fight with Mosley.
I equate boxers to successful rappers. It is easy to talk about the
streets and how hard you had it when you are coming up, but it is hard
to rap about the streets when you live in a ten million dollar home and
drive a car that cost more than the average income of a married couple.
Same thing with boxers once Margarito "made it" I don't see the same fire and I don't see the same desire which in turn makes him prime for an upset.
Mosley is an older more skilled version of Cotto. I said this the
day after the Cotto/Margarito fight that Cotto boxed the best first six
rounds of his career in that fight. It was a thing of beauty. One of
the best boxing exhibitions I had seen in a very long time.
The problem was while offensively while it was beautiful,
defensively it was lacking. In the end Cotto just ran out of gas and
his spirit was broken that he gave Margarito his best shot and he just
Mosley is a smarter fighter than Cotto and won't get hit nearly as
much while landing as much if not more against Margarito. Similar to
how Paul Williams beat Margarito he will put early rounds in the bank
and will be better equipped to hold on at the end.
Lastly you just have to go with your gut. Always trust your gut. I
don't think Margarito has the mental makeup to be a long term champion.
In the end I think he will be remembered for beating Cotto and not much
else. He simply isn't skilled enough to continuously beat top flight
boxers. Smart fighters like Mosley, like Williams can easily see how to
defeat him and as long as they stick to the game plan they will win
every single time.
Shane Mosley 12 Round Unanimous Decision.
MARK THE TAPE!!!!
I hereby nominate Robert Littal or this post for a Gold Star per the Pregame Constitution's goal of informing and entertaining our community.
Nominated by a fellow poster! You've just earned 5 entries into our Pregame Rewards Program for a chance at $1000 in cash!
Remember, all you have to do to nominate a post is simply SEND AN EMAIL to email@example.com whenever you see something you believe deserves a star
Nice Call Man .. I went to put money on Mosley at 1002 pm est time and it went of two minutes before I pulled the Trigger , But thanks for the Info Dwayne !
Just finished the fight on TiVo - shocking. Great call.
Thanks for the play buddy. Only reason I took this fight, was because of your read here. Tx again
i think that the fight was fixed between Margarito and cotto, let me tell you why. they both have the same promoter, and in boxing they are trying to find ways to make more money. margarito is a good fighter but isn't very well known buy the fans, so will not bring in very much money. i think that top rank talk to the both of them and fixed the fight. if cotto was to win the first fight then no one would want to see a rematch but if margarito wins then everyone would want to See a rematch. beating the best WW would get the fans to look at margarito and start to bring in more money.the rematch will be set for June 13 in MSG a day before the puerto rico date parade cottos day.cotto is one of the best body punchers in the game today. in that fight he didn't go for the body the first time in his career and did nothing but say on the ropes that was the only time margarito was able to hit him, it was done on purpose. i think that margarito wins the first, cotto wins the second , and the last fight they will really let them go at it and who ever come outs on top is the better fighter. i think that cotto will come up on top when its all said and done.
Great call. Sugar Shane put money in my pocket. Only wish my local would have taken more.......
nice call..look forward to some more boxing insight..
Thanks Robert! I only put 50 on this, but 150 net gain aint a bad day for a student.
Great call. I wish I had the stones to bet a decent amount, but I will take the free money. Thank You Sir.
I read your blog last night and checked with my book. At +330 I couldn't refuse! Thank you for turning a so-so day into a great one! AWESOME JOB!!
For those who missed it...
LOS ANGELES -- Shane Mosley dominated from start to finish, knocking out Antonio Margarito for the first time in his career in the ninth round Saturday night to win the WBA welterweight title in a stunning upset.
Margarito was coming off an impressive victory over previously unbeaten Miguel Cotto six months ago, and boxing experts had tabbed the 30-year-old slugger one of the top pound-for-pound fighters.
But Mosley must not have been paying attention.
Despite his advancing age, the 37-year-old Mosley used his superior quickness from the beginning, and Margarito never was able to display the power and fortitude he showed against Cotto.
"It was my strategy, my focus, my game plan," Mosley said when asked what won the fight. It was a tough fight, but it was a great plan. It was my left hook. I caught [Fernando] Vargas with it, I caught [Richardo] Mayorga with it.
"He's a tough fighter, he had a lot of endurance. I prepared very hard, I trained hard. He was very powerful, but he couldn't resist my rhythm."
Mosley brought in Nazim Richardson to train him for this fight, replacing his father, Jack. That move worked to perfection.
"When you have a great game plan and an excellent athlete, then everything works out very well," Richardson said.
The bout was held before an announced crowd of 20,820 -- largest to attend a sporting event at Staples Center since it opened in October 1999. The fans were clearly pro-Margarito despite the fact that Mosley grew up in suburban Pomona, but it meant little once the bout began.
"I feel OK. I was just getting caught over and over," Margarito said.
Margarito didn't win a single round on one judge's scorecard, one on another and two on the third. The Associated Press had Mosley every round but one.
Mosley, who weighed the maximum 147 pounds, raised his record to 46-5 with 39 knockouts. Margarito, known as the "Tijuana Tornado," weighed 145.8 pounds. He dropped to 37-6 with 27 knockouts after being stopped for the first time.
Both fighters earned around $2.4 million.
I'm glad you cashed big on Mosley tonight. Did you hear before the fight Margarito got caught with an illegal pad (shell) in his hand wrap and it would harden as the hand would get wet. It was caught by Mosleys trainer. He had to have his hands rewrapped 3 times. I wonder if this happened in the Cotto fight?
Great call Robert.