Thanks Floridachad, good explanation. Apathy is correct, however. I wrote this quickly last night to get it posted before 8 PM and I reversed the second half situation in my head. Based on the way 2nd half lines are made, if the Magic cover the 2 points in the 1st half the middle is highly unlikely to set up, even though the line makers have been favoring the Lakers more than normal in the 2nd half vs Orlando due to Orlando's 2nd half past performance.
Thus, the chance of winning 3 units can only be achieved by risking an additional unit on the Lakers at the half. As advantageous as that may be, it also adds an additional risk of losing.
I have corrected the article to eliminate the middle possibility so that people reading it will not be mislead, or spend time trying to figure out something that will probably never happen.
Thanks to Apathy for the heads up, and thanks to Floridachad for the nice clear explanation of the reasoning behind the play.
You're understanding it incorrectly Apathy. Rob's stated that he took LA for the game and Orl first half, because based on his capping, the worst he felt he could do was push, which is unfortunately what happened. He was saying that if Orlando had a big halftime lead, and if you had a play on LA for the game, you could get a nice middle opportunity based on the 2nd half line. I've stated on the forums a few times this season that betting against the Magic in the 2nd half of games in which they've held big leads have been gold this year because they lack the ability to put teams away. It's been a solid strategy.
This makes no sense. Iy you have LA +3.5 for the game and Orl -2 in the first half, and orlando were to have been up 10 at half you could not middle your bet on LA... this makes no sense at all...
Thanks for the stats Steve.
Orlando lost the 1st half, but LA has the big edge (+13 1/2) for us to win the game bet and get the push.
Lakers were #1 in NBA Reg Season in winning 3rd Qtrs: 60.4%
Orlando WON every 3rd qtr of 1st Rd vs Philly
Orlando LOST every 3rd Qtr vs Bos
Orlando WON every 3rd Qtr vs Cle , except last game, 2-pt diff, when orl was protecting DD Lead in close out
Last game; Orl HUGE 3rd Qtr drop, 14-30
Gm 1 Orlando was blasted almost 2-1 also, 29-15
EVEN GAME THEY WON when shooting rec FG%, Orl won 3rd by 1 pt., and Orl 30-23 in OT Loss in Gm 2
LAL only lost last games' 4th QTR - yet as we know, closed out on 17-4 run from 1:34 to go thru end of OT.
I'll be watching this.