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Bet Like a Pro: LAKERS/ORLANDO HEDGE STRATEGY

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Bet Like a Pro: LAKERS/ORLANDO HEDGE STRATEGY

Sun, Jun 14 2009 3:42 PM
  • Comments 5
For the two prior games at Orlando I have told subscribers that the predicted point differential is 4 to 5 pts.  The first game ended regulation at a 4 point differential, and the second game ended regulation within just two baskets of the prediction.  Tonight's prediction hasn't changed.  With the line set at -3 1/2 the game isn't playable.  

Many of you will be watching the game tonight, and want to have some action on it.  For those people, there is a hedging strategy that will give you the best of the probabilities.  Consider this strategy similar to an option spread or an option strangle strategy when investing in stocks.

Orlando has played better ball in the first half than in the second half of their games at Orlando.  There are several reasons why this may be happening.  The reason, however, is less important than the fact that it is happening.

Orlando knows it must win this game to stay alive.  I expect them to come out playing on all cylinders tonight.  If they fail to cover the 3 1/2 point spread, it is likely to be as a result of their play in the second half, rather than their play in the first half.  Thus, I am proposing to start the strategy by playing on Orlando in the first half at -2.

As I said earlier, the Lakers are a toss up at the line for the game.  Given they have a 50-50 chance of covering if my handicap is correct, I will hedge the first half and take advantage of the probability that the Magic will again play more poorly in the second half by taking the Lakers + 3 1/2 for the game.

Now for the halftime play.  If Orlando is ahead by more than 2 at the half, the worst I can do for the night is breakeven.  If, the Lakers have covered the first half, I will have lost my first half bet, but since the Lakers are ahead of the spread the probability is higher than 50% that the Lakers will cover the game, and I have the best of it for a push.  

If the Lakers are ahead big at the half, I can sit back and relax in the knowledge that I have a high probability of simply pushing on the night.

The biggest downside of the bet will be that the Lakers win the first half, but fail to cover the game.  I consider this event, based on my handicap, to be the least likely event.  The result, however, will be a loss of 2 units.

If Orlando wins the first half and the Lakers cover the game, the win will be 2 units.

If anything else happens you will push.  

The chance to lose 2 units handicaps to be the lowest probability of all the possibilities.  

Before I go, one quick word on the points vs. money line tonight.  The actual value of 3 ? points in the NBA is exactly -155.  The money line tonight is set -155.  If you bet the -155 money line, it is the equivalent of saving the vig, because the value of the 3 1/2 points plus the -110 vig you need to lay on the points is -157.5.  If you like Orlando in the game, bet the Money Line up to -157.  At -158 and above bet the points.  

I'll do an article on calculating the point values in the NBA at another time.
 

 

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Comments
  • Sun, Jun 14 2009 4:25 PM

    Lakers were #1 in NBA Reg Season in winning 3rd Qtrs:  60.4%

    Orlando WON every 3rd qtr of 1st Rd vs Philly

    Orlando LOST every 3rd Qtr vs Bos

    Orlando WON  every 3rd Qtr vs Cle , except last game, 2-pt diff, when orl was protecting DD Lead in close out

    Finals:

    Last game;  Orl HUGE 3rd Qtr drop, 14-30

    Gm 1 Orlando was blasted almost 2-1 also, 29-15

    EVEN GAME THEY WON when shooting rec FG%, Orl won 3rd by 1 pt., and Orl 30-23 in OT Loss in Gm 2

    LAL only lost last games' 4th QTR - yet as we know, closed out on 17-4 run from 1:34 to go thru end of OT.

    I'll be watching this.

  • Sun, Jun 14 2009 6:32 PM

    Thanks for the stats Steve.

    Orlando lost the 1st half, but LA has the big edge (+13 1/2) for us to win the game bet and get the push.    

  • Sun, Jun 14 2009 8:02 PM

    This makes no sense. Iy you have LA +3.5 for the game and Orl -2 in the first half, and orlando were to have been up 10 at half you could not middle your bet on LA... this makes no sense at all...

  • Sun, Jun 14 2009 9:45 PM

    You're understanding it incorrectly Apathy.  Rob's stated that he took LA for the game and Orl first half, because based on his capping, the worst he felt he could do was push, which is unfortunately what happened.  He was saying that if Orlando had a big halftime lead, and if you had a play on LA for the game, you could get a nice middle opportunity based on the 2nd half line.  I've stated on the forums a few times this season that betting against the Magic in the 2nd half of games in which they've held big leads have been gold this year because they lack the ability to put teams away.  It's been a solid strategy.

  • Mon, Jun 15 2009 8:12 AM

    Thanks Floridachad, good explanation.  Apathy is correct, however.  I wrote this quickly last night to get it posted before 8 PM and I reversed the second half situation in my head.  Based on the way 2nd half lines are made, if the Magic cover the 2 points in the 1st half the middle is highly unlikely to set up, even though the line makers have been favoring the Lakers more than normal in the 2nd half vs Orlando due to Orlando's 2nd half past performance.  

    Thus, the chance of winning 3 units can only be achieved by risking an additional unit on the Lakers at the half.  As advantageous as that may be, it also adds an additional risk of losing.

    I have corrected the article to eliminate the middle possibility so that people reading it will not be mislead, or spend time trying to figure out something that will probably never happen.  

    Thanks to Apathy for the heads up, and thanks to Floridachad for the nice clear explanation of the reasoning behind the play.

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