Saturdays Kentucky Derby was a sad day in racing. Almost immediately after the race ended and the second-place finisher, Eight Belles, broke both ankles and was immediately euthanized. It hasnt been discussed, but the fault lies with either the track, or more likely with the jockey. A horse doesnt break two ankles after the race is over unless there is a serious fault in the track or the rider doesnt gallop it out properly.
The tragedy was par for the day. By the time the Derby was over, I also felt like I had been destroyed, and was simply looking to be put out of my misery.
After winning on 13 out of 15 Kentucky Derby days, the Wall Street Syndicate had something happen that has only happened once before in all 60 prior big racing days on which I gave out their selections. They went 0-fer. They couldnt win a thing. They had horses picked to win that came in second. They had horses picked for second that won. But the second choice winners and the first choice placers couldnt seem to occur in the same race, and they didnt pick up a single exacta.
One of my Crowne Club members called to say, "Dont feel so bad. I've been with you for 5 Derby Days and I won every year. Losing one day is no big deal." He's correct, of course. But for those who signed on brand new, it is a big deal. They haven't had years of winning before the loss. All they know is the loss. Even though that loss totaled only 5 units based on our recommended bets and amounts, it never feels good when you rip up every ticket.
Losing hurts the amateur and the professional alike. Losing, however, is a part of winning. You cannot win if you dont take the risk of loss, and losing will happen. The professional bettor learns to expect it. You can't expect to win every race or every game any more than you can expect to win every hand at poker. There may even be a poker sitting at which you dont win a single hand, no matter how good you are at poker.
Despite their built-in edge, casinos experience losses too. There is even a special word for it. When a table keeps providing the bettors with a profit, the casinos use the term "dumping." The pit boss will say, "That table has been dumping all day." The casino, however, does not fold up and stop offering the game when they have a single losing day.
Of course, if the game kept losing at every table, the casino might eventually analyze the game itself to be sure they truly have the edge and no one is stealing. A few losses in the midst of years of winning, however, is not a cause for concern. The casinos chalk it up, confident in the knowledge that they have the advantage and will eventually get all their money back and more.
Professional bettors have the same attitude. Whether in cards or sports, the professional bettor knows that he has the advantage, and if he keeps playing he will eventually get all the loss back and more. In other words, he thinks like a winner, even after losing.
It is that mind set that differentiates the winners from the losers. The losers are devastated by a loss. Based on a loss some change the way they bet, some change their method of handicapping, and some panic and become fodder for the con men. The winner understands that losses will happen, recovers from the pain quickly, and comes back the next day as confident as before.
I am not saying that the winner doesnt learn from his losses. He does. Like the casinos, if the losses continue he may analyze his handicapping. But one day's evidence is not a reason to do anything. It is merely an event that must be expected to happen occasionally. .
At the end of Saturday's racing, based on our recommended play, we were down 5.3 units. Not good, but also not something we can't recover from in just one day. Weve had many days of selections from the Wall Street Syndicate that have resulted in a win much larger than Saturday's loss. Weve even picked up 5 units in a single race betting their selections. The Wall Street Syndicate wins with terrific consistency, and although the loss hurt, Ill be back betting confidently on their picks in the rest of the Triple Crown races.
I personally lost right along with everyone else (and my units are probably bigger than most of the people who signed on with me). Nevertheless, I want to apologize to those of you who were on with us for what was the worst Kentucky Derby Day we've had in 16 years, and what was the second worst racing day weve had in 61 days of Triple Crown and Breeders Cup racing picks.
Before you give up on us, think about this:
If a poker player or blackjack card counter had 14 winning sessions out of 16, would you bet on him? I know I would.