#1) Margin of Victory
Statistically speaking, this factor matters twice as much as the second most important factor - so ignore at your own risk. Margin of victory is simply the average number of points that a team wins or loses by. Why is this important? Because with only 30 or so games a year, getting lucky in even a handful of close games can make a team look much better record-wise than it truly is. But if a team consistently wins by large margins, you can be more certain you've got a real winner. The key number is 15; teams whose margin of victory is greater than 15 points do exceedingly well in the NCAA Tournament.

#2) Coaching Experience
The Big Dance is an entirely different experience than the regular season, requiring a different approach from the coach. It makes sense that a coach who is new to the Tournament wouldn't know as well how to handle it. The numbers strongly back up this rationale: The average number of tourney appearances for coaches in the tournament is 5.6; the average for teams reaching the Final Four is 9.3 coaching appearances; the average for the team who wins it all is 11.5 coaching appearances (more than double the tournament average). Avoid rookie tourney coaches, and stick with the old lions who have seen it all before.

#3) Team Experience
The Big Dance is not just different for the coaches, it's different for the entire organization - and having tourney experience is key. This concept extends even beyond the players. Consider all the details that need to be handled, from travel plans, to the type of hotels to stay at, to what equipment the trainer needs to bring. And don't underestimate the intangible of confidence - a player walking onto the court knowing that he belongs on the biggest stage. That only comes with experience. The average number of consecutive tourney appearances for teams in the tournament is 3; the average for teams reaching the Final Four is more than double that!

#4) Having a superstar to count on
A vast majority NCAA champions have at least one All-American. The logic makes perfect sense: the tourney is a rollercoaster that requires an on-the-floor leader. On the way to winning six straight games a team will likely face a number of make or break situations, and having the alpha dog on the floor in those spots makes all the difference.

#5) Reliable front court scoring
Centers and Forwards who play near the basket account for front court scoring, and their play is usually a difference maker - especially for teams looking to advance deep into the tournament. Relying upon outside shooting is a losing proposition during the Big Dance: first, because the games are played in unfamiliar, spacious arenas, typically with difficult shooting backgrounds. Second, even if great shooters are able to overcome these disadvantages, doing so game after game after game is typically too much to ask. A cold night is bound to happen - and it only takes one to be eliminated. Front court scoring, on the other hand, involves lay-ups and slam dunks, shots that are not as affected by surroundings or nerves. Teams who receive at least 60% of their scoring from the front court have historically over-achieved in the NCAA tournament. Stick with such teams, and you will to!