RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, AJ Hoffman, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL Draft and NBA Playoffs. Best bets as always.

[AJ Hoffman] (0:00 - 0:02)

Why don't you stick to what you know?

 [RJ Bell] (0:03 - 3:48) All right draft preview for us we're gonna make it quick we had a good show And we got a strong history Of the nfl draft props and such and we gave multiple best bets Here fez included now a couple offers for you one ten dollars off any best bet Related to the draft. So fez is going to have stuff up Others are having things up and you can get it pretty much for half price and the coupon code is draft 10 dr aft 1 0 10 bucks off anything now Pros of interest generally just who's red hot good fella up 20 units last week Esler up 15 units shaker up 14 units 10 bucks on any best bet package now that can be draft related or wink wink Any package before thursday Meaning thursday included you got to use it by Use it or lose it as they say draft 10 now for those that are smart enough to be looking ahead to the nfl You might go. Oh who cared? Well guys like aj hoffman up nearly 50 units in the nfl Good fella again up 45 in the nfl Moving on down the list the hitman Last season up 33 nfl last two seasons 62 last three seasons 115 it's pretty consistent.

It's your level aj and you know about fez, you know about You know who by the way just in the nfl draft 14 and 7 Last two years and that doesn't remember the covid year. He went like 15 and 2 you think he'd add that in all right, so Why are we looking ahead to football because this will be that what we do is Every time time passes the next offer is less good. It's it's a rule Aj you've been in on these meetings that you can never make a better offer after a prior offer You never want to be punished by acting early exactly and if somehow some way you could make the the the point Hey, if you actually look at this, this is a little better Email it in and it will be Evened out occasionally there might be an oversight.

It's so rare, but you're gonna know you're gonna know But that means that if you wait You pay more You act now you pay less What's the offer now? You can have a hundred dollars off any nfl or or football combo early bird access And that's a draft 100 because in celebration of the draft draft 100 now, you might think yeah hundred Well in addition to that in addition to that if you buy nfl only You're gonna get 50 additional dollars in bulk dollars Which allows you to buy straight best bets or whatever if you buy the combo nfl plus college football You get a hundred bucks.

So let's say you just say I want all of aj because he kicked butt in college Kicked butt in the nfl last year You would save a hundred bucks off the cash price and get a hundred dollars In bulk dollars and those never expire. So that's like cash currency. You can spend whenever you want At pregame.com coupon code there again draft 100 Good show coming up on to the show Nfl draft preview a betting preview for the draft to my right aj hoffman in from The death The way you were coughing It was 50 50 you're gonna die.

[AJ Hoffman] (3:48 - 4:04) So the problem was I knew I could I I was ready to go like I wasn't coughing like crazy like that until I started talking. That's what happens There was too much talking and then I it started and I couldn't make it stop Like I had tears streaming down my face.

[RJ Bell] (4:04 - 24:23) We were there we heard. Yeah, I mean it was bad steve fezzik who somehow you're Under the weather Yeah, you get a lot of you should start taking bee pollen. I I'm taking the fish oil All you know, maybe the fish oil is good for the brain.

This is good for the immune Yeah, you're more concerned with the with the brain at first. But yeah, but now now that aj got me sick. I'm I was remote mind you Scott got me sick.

He got you sick through the mic. So all I know is i'm loaded up on dayquil. Let's go, baby We got scott seinberg Somehow i'm the healthiest one here and then there's me who is is I mean, I don't get sick very often.

I used to get And when I was in grade school, I got sick a lot. You know, I was one of those like every three weeks I don't know. I think my mom didn't breastfeed me.

I'm not I don't remember They say that's bad for the immunity. I don't know. All right, we got the discussion about the draft We're going to tell you what you can bet or at least what we think Is bettable for the draft?

Some best bets here, right? And we're also going to tell you I think I think more importantly Is what is the effects of the draft when it comes to the market for the season wins for the super bowl? And i'm a draft skeptic in that.

I believe in general. It's irrelevant. But what is interesting at least for this year And when I say irrelevant, I don't mean it doesn't matter I mean it's irrelevant for the Projections of these teams because we don't know who's going to be good If we I mean the nfl doesn't know who's going to be good, right?

They took one quarterback first last year and one second and the second looks like one of the better ones in the last 10 years Well, the whole nfl agreed the young was the better or almost everyone it seemed last year was on young So they don't know how do we know? So we just look at how much equity draft equity teams have and we'll say let's assume they have a normal result from that And that's worth what it's worth, right? Steve.

Yeah So what you're saying is that you're not saying that all drafts are equal You're saying if one team has like the 10th and the 25th pick in each round and their team has no draft picks Uh, how valuable is that team's draft? You don't care how you grade them exactly like they get the 10 and the 25 slot in round one Just it's all mathematical it's all kind of roughly even out and you can find the draft equity that teams have because Think about it. There is the chart, right?

There's the jimmy johnson chart. There's other more Modern charts whatever chart you use you can look at all their picks and say well how much equity do they have? and i'll be honest, I think that's interesting, but I don't even think it matters that much because Rookie years for sure.

It's hard to contribute a ton. Now. There's nothing more important for the five-year Projection That's the paradox, right on one hand It's irrelevant for this year for the most part and on the other hand nothing's more important in the midterm to long term Yes, and maybe you tweak it because a running back is probably like the easiest plug and play to get in there um And contribute So I would say only for the first round after that you don't know But if the first round is like a tight end, which tends to which is rare But tight ends tend to evolve slowly linemen evolve slowly but running backs and receivers And I think cornerbacks tend to quicker great because especially man-to-man teams, right?

um linebackers usually a little slower, I mean linebackers gotten to be so It's a great point is how quickly do players tend to manifest their true talent level in the nfl? And in general running backs receivers Cornerbacks are going to be quicker linemen extra slow, especially with the way that in college, they don't really um Pass protect or run the college. Uh line play is so different than the nfl And now with the collective bargaining agreement for 10 years now Um not allowing as many practices linemen usually don't start getting good to the third year I think you bring up a great point Where is like a sauce gardener comes in there and can make an immediate huge contribution in denver's quarter?

cornerback, um Yeah. Yeah. All right.

So why don't we get started here? Fez tell us about The betting market right now and we are taping on tuesday night uh Years ago a couple even two three years ago a lot of money to be made famously famously During covid when there wasn't any other action Fez had 37. How many bets did you have?

Yeah, I was right. It was in the 30s He was like I either got to get a job or win these bets That was the most wagered on nfl draft. I believe it But what happened was not only the lack of action, right that otherwise but so widespread legalization, too Yeah, and but I would say nothing else was going on at vegas It wasn't legal in vegas and until like 2018 to wager on the draft Remember how like they the nevada gaming commission came out and they said all right We're gonna let you bet on the draft.

This is around 2018 But you can't bet the 24 hours before the draft and that rule is still in the books. Yeah, so That year was the perfect storm fez had all the picks a lot of people had a lot of bets And fez had his bets and lo and behold Fez you went like what I think it was like 17 or 18 that were best bets and you went like 15 and two It was just insane and it was the worst lesson for people because you were pressing I was I was definitely pressing but you know what I just was fortunate enough to be pressing into a game that was like Highly beatable and let's face it. The books have taken countermeasures famously, uh, sal point doesn't deal anything on the draft anymore Derek stevens of circa has said I hate the draft We always lose on the draft and so what circa did I think is very smart this year They used to deal hundreds of different props and now they're dealing like 40, but some of them really They're kind of not very beatable props and 500 limits And so think about this now circa might start out dealing low limits But they have price discovery their discovery and when they get like on an nba game Then the limits go up up up as the game approaches Not happening.

I feel bad for the books not happening right now Uh 500 limit it says is set in stone at circa. We're we're almost we're coming closing in on that 24 hour mark It's a shame they might have to shut the ac off there. It's it's not going any higher I mean, I gotta be honest with you a bunch of crying From bookies doesn't interest me I I mean how much do you want to hold?

I mean like you think you'd make a big deal about getting beat and meaning but let let it happen a little bit No No, they want they want to take all the money. Maybe that's why you hate them so much westgate. It's um, ptsd Tuesday night 8 p.m. What's this? Westgate had draft props. They're gone. They're off the board.

Are they going to come back on wednesday? I don't think so. I think they just pulled I think they uh, they said that 24 hours 72 hours 48 hours We don't want to book the week of the draft.

Here's the thing though and you've been you were uh You spent what was it about was it six months with pinnacle? It was actually six weeks six weeks. Why did you make a big deal like six months?

No All right, so six weeks so you were you were down there like on a consultancy or whatever I was exactly and you and uh Henry would take you to lunch and explain how much money he was losing by eating lunch with five thousand dollars For going to lunch. Yes He did. All right, I think um Why wouldn't the westgate circle would ever do this?

Let's accept the fact that they're going to get one bet against you because they're going to beat you You can have the tvs on and everything but let's just accept but let's say whenever you get back You're going to move it the full straddle of that Bet so let's say that it's a 30 cent straddle if it's right now. It's my uh, plus 150 You bet it boom now you go to minus 150 Right, so you've said we're going to accept that a limit bet means a lot that they probably beat us But now we're this far and then immediately upon getting that bet you got someone Scouring to find the news that drove it because maybe it's even got to be more of a move How bad can you get hurt because if somehow it was a false move something was wrong someone bets the other way You've just those two bets now just even out. So yeah, if you accept the plus 150 you drop it to plus 120 Yeah, yeah, and but minus 150 and minus 150 the other way.

Yes, and you entice action back the other way Or you try to get ahead Yeah, but so we did we did we actually I think it was elohu at the time So we were dealing one of the things they they had me do is I was looking at arena football All right, so early on when our price discovery Exactly what you were saying. So someone would bet it he would come in and he'd bet it All right, and we were doing like I think minus 110 in each direction and I moved it to like Plus 112 in the other direction. All right So he could play back the other side and beat us for two cents And he actually called in and said you guys are making a mistake.

You realize I can just play back the other side On these three games I bet and I could just profit two cents and you know, we told him go right ahead Go right ahead because now we have our information. We know our openers were wrong But what i'm saying is couldn't that lead someone to just bet whatever and then buy it back immediately? Yes Yes, they could and that's why to me and it's a variation on a theme though Is you move it a lot not so much where they can create their own arb But how do you get hurt and especially keep it at a nickel?

I don't have a problem with a nickel But put the thing up exactly and and my biggest problem like like put up some put up a wide variety, you know I'm, not gonna like like like isolate and specifically talk about books, but the south point had no idea what they were doing the three Three guys, hold on a sec. I'm not gonna talk Not naming names anyone but allow me to point out Because they would deal like a spencer rattler, you know type of obscure quarterback Over under 83 and a half and someone would bet it and they'd move them like 10 cents or move them like one draft slot That's not gonna get it done You gotta make you gotta aggressively move to like you said to get to to take away Um, you know the the tsunami of five ten bets in a row that might come in against you if it's information Yes, and that's the thing you move that full amount and all of a sudden no other bets come in you look around The other books aren't getting hit Okay, even if this guy's sharp you maybe move it back halfway Yeah, because now it's a speculation bet as opposed and that's what's important to realize in these markets It's there's no event except a fixed game So let's forget that for a second That is like the draft where you can just have the right answer and the books don't know it and it's a sure thing Right or almost a sure thing No games are like that. I don't care if it's like oh, so and so is hurt.

Okay, so it's four Why leonard was in tonight guess what clippers still lost So you'd rather bet with that information, but it's not like there's some you know you've gone from a 50 to 56 mate, whatever exactly as opposed to a 50 to a 100 is very part and I see why they're scared of that. But man, there's ways to account for it other than Just running so scared because what it does is it makes Here's what it does If i'm betting and if I have any edge they do anything they can to stop it And then i'm betting and they're fine with it. I feel like a sucker Right because when i'm betting with any edge, they don't want any part of it But when i'm betting otherwise, they're okay.

So really code is it's almost like when pete rose They said he never bet on the reds or never bet against the reds, but The absence of the bet was a sign. He didn't like the rest of the two choices were no bet or bet on the reds Well, isn't that what I just laid out I bet and they're either happy with it Or oh my god, we can't take any more of that. You're why'd you bet that number?

Wow, it's like you're creating an environment where no one can feel like that They're not a sucker if you're okay with taking their action exactly, you know in the sharpest books in the world I'll use blackjack as an example. All right, they get it because Having the cards in play against 95 of the public is is what's going to maximize your profits So don't say hey, there's a few guys in town that can beat us just you know Make sure they're not being pigs about it In terms of bet spreads and everything else and if if a good player comes in place for 20 minutes Beat you for a little bit. It doesn't matter all the other five players at the table are playing at a worse Disadvantage than that advantage that good player is playing at so or you can deal six to five blackjack Shuffle after your your one deck into a two deck shoe this stuff to avoid The the advantage players edge except you're hurting yourself against all these negative ev players Exactly because you if you look at like the south point what they do, right? Like they they they do everything right with blackjack and all the pits and you go in there to the stuff Chris andrews isn't involved. That's right.

So tuesday at 11 p.m The place is packed with people betting cowboys betting 25 dollars a hand tables are full You go into a place with doing six five blackjack on the strip like the cromwell or someplace Shoot a cannon can't hit nothing down there. No players makes sense now let's be honest circa is a Very ambitious book. They're aggressive I think they're willing to take chances But boy if they feel like they're negative ev they're aggressive in a way that I think looks bad um What was going on?

There was basketball right where there was some basketball, uh releaser um, I never I hadn't even heard of the guy that was uh, That they literally took the limits down to like like a hundred bucks during the time of the release or something. Yes I mean That's insane. Yeah, so they know when a couple of big influencers give out and it turns out it's right around 6 30 to 7 a.m Okay, so what happens is these releasers will say well i'm going to be releasing on you know The rain this range of games like three accgames and all of a sudden those accgames said three thousand dollar limit on them But when you went to actually bet on it for those ten minutes five hundred dollar limit or two hundred dollar limit on the total Two hundred dollars so they they slashed the total though But how much was the sides typically and how much did the sides go to from two thousand or three thousand? They dropped it to five hundred I mean first of all that's shown a massive amount of respect for I mean, you know, but number two is It'd be almost like a guy walks in and they're like, you know, and that's the thing circa if you're a book that runs scared Generally, we all kind of accept it and we don't hold them to any standard It's like they're scared but a book that's purporting to be we want the biggest bets We want you know, like the old horseshoe kind of mentality Opinions and then If so-and-so walks in let's say you're posted limits 5 000 if so-and-so walks in and you hear over the thing there's a change there's a change current limits now 200 just because someone walks in then the minute they walk out three thousand is the limit It's like well you can are you gonna go around bragging about your three thousand dollar limits? Right and probably not right.

Oh, you shouldn't be able to and and what's going on there is i'm sure That Because they take all these bets on the app. They're getting flooded with eight identical bets within a nanosecond of each other Yeah, so and I don't you know your software ideally would be able to handle that but it doesn't okay. So I mean so benson actually uh Replied to people on twitter.

Okay happened. So this was I guess this was earl. This is a couple weeks ago Uh, somebody had complained about only getting 3k limits 30 minutes before the game started and he says uh quote We closed at 20k on side 3k total 5k money line, but didn't bump to full limits until right after the lineups come out Those limits are for every game during the regular season minus maybe the last two weeks with which one is this now the nba?

Okay, and then he uh replied to somebody else saying we book things by hand So it's hard to go. So it's hard to go nuts on the nba limits, especially before lineups Well, listen if it's now that's interesting if it's late in the year Like and there's so much. Um Random not even random uncertainty with lineups to say we can't really book this Fully until we know the lineup.

I think that's reasonable But to say because some sort some some handicapper is given out of play that seems very different to me right now the The book example for the draft these books for the draft is kind of a hybrid because on one hand you could say well They have uncertainty About things just like the lineups because the theory is there's people Who are watching the radio or listening to the radio feed? Hearing the lineup and firing and it's going to be hard for them to replicate that right great example Yeah, so I get they're afraid of that Especially at a time when there's going to be wild swings because of who plays or who doesn't the draft is once a year Right and again, i'm fine with 500 limits I mean, let's be candid. There's not many people I mean less than what five percent of the bettors are betting more than 500 a game I think less than that.

Oh, I think one percent, right? Yeah, especially if they're I mean, there's I can't count the people who are not betting for themselves that are betting like there's people betting 2000 a game But they're not betting for themselves. There's 99 Of people that the nickel is going to take care of it exactly and they can have this and give them a win I mean how it might be february And they're losing college basketball because they don't have aj's picks And or you know other winners and lo and behold They're thinking man.

I'm just going to keep going because I I won the draft last year I mean that keeps people engaged actually having one or just to enter and who cares it can be negative ev You got plenty of squares that just want to like like go back to blackjack. They have no idea what they're doing They just want to play blackjack. What do you mean?

I can't play black I can't play blackjack that pays three to two, you know, come on So here's a little advice for the books one Whatever you want to do do but be forthright about it and if you're running scared don't act like a badass So let's kind of start there number two I think a nickel gets you 98 99 percent of people contended and even if you can't go more I listen When I mean, you know me feds I want I mean not that i'm a huge bet I don't bet like 10 000 a game but when I like a first quarter and and you're struggling to get down as much as I want then I Listen I I wish there was bigger limits, right? And you can put like a 200 limit on the app and a thousand dollar limit at the property You're not going to get inundated with boom. Boom.

Boom all these bets at once At your brick and mortar place, especially if you don't have many locations It goes to show you technology and this is where draft kings. Uh, i'm more familiar with I think fan duel would be similar The technology of draft kings in the in-game With the same game parlay is unbelievable the way it responds so quickly. I mean like they put a lot of money into that A place like circa isn't going to have that but the idea of queuing the bets, which means let's say there's three bets right in a row Uh instantaneously, right?

Well on the internet. It's it's by the hundredth of a millisecond or whatever They can tell which one came in. So now you put them in a line Technically, you know in the technology and then the first bet goes in and then your system needs to be able to adjust Do an auto adjust at that point pinnacle bookmaker Uh famously both do this.

Okay. We've never have a we've never had a situation. I'm on conference calls Okay, where we've both been trying to bet at this like a bookmaker and pinnacle not pinnacle because i'm a u.s resident So I can't bet a pinnacle.

[RJ Bell] (24:23 - 24:23)

Yeah.

[RJ Bell] (24:23 - 29:39)

Well, yeah, so Um, like i've never had like my friend louis and I have never identically gotten down at the same time Sometimes just I got it. I'm like Line has moved, you know, we've never so what is a nanosecond? You're not when you're not first What do you see?

Uh line has changed. It's now minus 121. Would you like that line now?

Once you if have you have you ever taken that second line sometimes? Yes, and do you almost always get that in or is that something where sometimes that gets cute? No, usually that one usually it says line is now minus 128.

Would you like that line? So you're saying because you don't take betting that seriously you don't really bet at pinnacle, but you used to yes Waste management consultant, you know, I mean when Fez isn't really a professional batter. He's a waste management You get that yes, of course, I don't know I seem like you're a little confused Hey, you got it.

I got it. All right. Okay So what is the reality in the market right now?

Vegas is Scared is anyone in Vegas putting up a bunch? No Sir, I would say circa put up the most that I saw um Limited offerings from other places such as west gate and they were so happy to just be able to take him down and be done with it yeah, I would point out that mgm has a pretty good amount and They're available all over the town. So I would say mgm has a pretty big amount of uh draft wagers You know, that's that's fair my mgm app I was talking to my one of my buddies and he's like, oh you can't bet like You should bet like pitcher props like number of um pitches they throw in the first thing There's lots of stuff on my app on mgm that doesn't show up anymore.

So We can play a little sad music for you. You want it's fine All right, so offshore or you know, let's say non-vegas books. I mean, maybe you've heard something How would you can how would you rate the market See, but what's interesting is there's some of these white labels like they just like out of nowhere It's like this little small book.

It's like takes a dime on things. I'm like, what's this? They're taking twice what circus taking now is that usually someone who's uh has a losing history that you know them It's not so much a new account.

Um, sometimes it can be a new account because remember most pretty quickly Most people have new accounts tend to be losers So that that's those oftentimes are what they call clean accounts that haven't been flagged It's the accounts that you've had for a while. Yeah that then they get limited. So we were talking about this hypothetically so let's say that you were going to bet with someone and and uh partner and the choices were And you wouldn't do anything illegal like cross state lines, but let's say the choices were um that person would go open a fresh account, uh in whatever state we're talking and Number two is hey, they bet they bet their own stuff.

They got a history of losing And they're willing to partner with you on the bets you want to make And you trust them to for the makeup, you know, not to make up but to pay off Which one would you prefer? Oh the lifetime loser. That's that guy's gold Yeah, because because the theory is especially if he's betting any volume If you got winning stuff, it's going to get camouflaged naturally in there.

Yeah, and and literally Almost would be an embarrassment. Imagine scott. You got this.

Oh, we've got this guy. He's been betting with us since 1988 And now let's say even 2018 sure Um, and now after 10 years of taking his action now, we're getting around to discovering He's a sharp come on same thing's true with like i'm sure they they don't sweat like a blackjack player He's been playing for 20 years I mean, he's never going to get kicked out unless he's like an absolute, you know, egregiously, you know spreading up and down But what happens if you were betting? others You know picks at other sites and then you bought aj For like nfl or you bought aj for college basketball and then all of a sudden they start winning You don't think the books for those guys that when they were laying off or betting aj stuff.

Maybe we're Thinking hey something's changed. He's playing portland state. I think you bought some goodwill For a while, but then when the problem is once they like, okay, the audit team's like well I think there's trigger points where like for instance in blackjack.

It's a it's it's usually a bad idea to win more than three thousand dollars Because it almost triggers an audit for them to look at your play. It seems like that. That's like the magic number Well, that's interesting.

There's three thousand You know, there's the whole cash thing at ten, but if it's above three if I recall, um They have an option to submit a suspicious activity. It's it's more an internal you're right It's more than but it's interesting that the the it's the same government level that sounds like an internal level, right? It's an internal audit system where they say, you know, this guy's 30 percent at the the ten thousand dollar cash point We're going to start tracking this person under the pretense We got to keep track.

Obviously, we got to keep track if he's going over 10 got to stop money laundering exactly But while we're already looking at him Wait, wait a minute, and this was even documented In as tom cruise starts to win a rain man. Now. He won a lot more We're referencing a documentary.

[RJ Bell] (29:40 - 29:40)

Go ahead.

[RJ Bell] (29:40 - 31:32)

Remember when he get when he gets it gets on the phone and he's like, yeah He's up. He's up like about 50. This is caesar's a big joint.

He's like, yeah, they're up like about 20 Eye in the sky. Yeah, I Louis called like 10 minutes ago You're like, you know showing what happens and that's where they have the thing It goes he can't be counting. No human can count in a six-deck shoe.

Don't see no computer That's pretty good. Um I can't remember. Have you seen owning mahoney?

Okay, that's probably good. Oh, it's excellent but there's one point where the guy is the old-time casino host like, you know more the gm or whatever and uh, He goes he's watching him and and you know, it's philip seymour hoffman. He's got this look like he's The fattest guy in the world out of the best buffet ever.

He just is so locked in. He's so happy, right? and The guy's looking at him and he's admiring he goes Doesn't eat does Doesn't want sex doesn't drink Just gambling he goes.

He's a pure racehorse That is a good movie, all right This is the dream preview nfl draft We got aj we got steve fezzik. We got scott. We got me rj bell.

All right Let's let's trade. Let's switch up and do a pick Aj we're gonna start with you. What do you got?

What's your best bet on the draft? My best bet on the draft is spencer rattler over 83 and a half All right, so let's be clear over means after Yes later than later than 83 and a half now, let's think about this. There's 32 in a round 64 Then what?

90 That's your nickname right 96 rattler Yes Yeah. All right. So we're talking late third round.

[AJ Hoffman] (31:32 - 32:03)

Yes. I don't think even goes in the third round. I so Spencer rattler is first of all, he's six foot tall He ran a five second 40 like you if you're small five second Yeah, if you're small in the nfl typically you've got to be really fast rich eyes and better than that or have some sort of Really great the same arm tools.

He doesn't have any of that spencer rattler's a backup quarterback at best in the nfl And a couple years ago people thought oh this look at this guy. I mean he well that was when he was Guys, can we bet where's this at?

[RJ Bell] (32:03 - 32:33)

I want to bet I like this So circa current number is Wait a minute. We got a mole in here Hasn't moved really what is it's over 85 and a half late 135 at circa. Well, what are you saying draft kings?

And what are you saying? Exactly 82 or 83 and a half minus 120. So we like that better, right?

No, wait Well, it's oh it's over. Okay. Yeah.

Yeah, we like the dk Uh, i'll see what I can do. Well, what's going on at the mgm? I'll check that up.

I like finish your analysis.

[AJ Hoffman] (32:33 - 32:34)

So I like i'll look up the mgm.

[RJ Bell] (32:35 - 33:26)

All right Because the reason I like it i'll keep it simple Is it's a big name so you understand like it's one of those say I don't have to guess why they're mispriced because a lot of people's heard of rattler and They're willing to say yeah, you know, so To me, it's that simple. It's it's a guy who the fundamentals it sounds like and I think Unequivocally are true or not a third round grade And he's got a big name, but that's if anything I would make the case What was it stenton bennett? That's invented He was a guy that got drafted a little higher maybe than people thought because he's a winner Maybe he doesn't have all the skills right says in a minute before he won championships wasn't Thought of as someone who would ever get drafted.

He was a walk-on So he was like, but are you saying a prospect rattlers kind of got the body? I mean the skills of a walk-on kind of I mean Six-foot and he's fighting he runs five flat.

[AJ Hoffman] (33:26 - 33:59)

Yeah, and just none of the tape says that this guy's got any special nfl talents And on top of that, there's just a lot of stuff that's come out about him about personality wise character wise not a good teammate and Maybe has some off the field issues. And if you remember last year, there was a guy named matt corral He was my best bet on the draft pod last year who was a very toolsy guy, but had off-field questions and Lance told me he's going to plummet because of all this off-field stuff This he says the same thing about spencer rattler.

[RJ Bell] (33:59 - 34:01)

There's no way spencer from zurich.

[AJ Hoffman] (34:01 - 34:09)

Yeah So I I just don't see how he goes in in the first three rounds. So give me a spencer rattler over Uh that 82 or 83 and a half. Pardon me.

[RJ Bell] (34:09 - 36:23)

So the point I was making About stenson bennett was that he got drafted. I think a little sooner than people expected And he was a person who now is apparently mi no one knows where he is And he was a fail. I don't think he did even play pre-season.

I mean it was like he's Because it was later rounds. It's not as big of a deal. But I mean, this is like a jamarcus russell situation And it seems like now the idea of going down that same road gets less attractive No doubt, you know how like josh allen or a similar road?

Josh allen was the big toolsy guy that can't complete passes Now that he's done. Well, all of a sudden those guys go higher in the draft because they're thinking hey if it worked But well, it's the opposite here, right? There's a guy who in theory he's got Uh bravado, he's got moxie.

Whatever doesn't have the tools And a guy like that last year that had some off the field issues busted out now I think it's gonna cause pause if you're even on the border of an early pick with him I mean shit that the running back or i'm sorry the quarterback from tennessee Martin no willis will levis. Yeah. No, no, no.

No, i'm thinking about the one the year before that was equal Yeah, there you go. Malik willis. He went in the third round And I mean this was one of the the you know, again, it turns out that was probably early But he was a great.

I mean some people could win a decathlete. Yeah, he could win a decathlon and and and I remember there was a mock like a month before the season had him going number two Or something like the detroit or it was like when detroit was way up there a couple years ago Right before then, you know, obviously and these gms want to most of them want to win now This is a project this this pick isn't going to play out for a couple years At best you're gonna blow a third round pick when you can get you know, you might be able to steal a starter No, I mean third round for sure. I like it.

What are you seeing? What are we saying? Couldn't find it at mgm not available Hmm.

All right. Well, listen, I think I think aj here's what you need to do I need you because you gave the pick to find where we should be Here's the I mean What how bad is this number? I mean, what's the other?

Yeah. I mean, what's the other number? We're gonna You know, I just can't be my all right.

[AJ Hoffman] (36:24 - 36:24)

I hear you.

[RJ Bell] (36:24 - 37:17)

I can't I can't do it because if he goes 84th or 85th I'm gonna lose my yeah, you're right. You're right. All right, you know aj that's a good pick You got my minus one over 85.

I've laid minus 35. Yeah, but you but you like this too The logic. Oh, yes All right.

Good stuff. Aj hoffman. All right now scott you're next i'm gonna go with Byron murphy of texas to be the first defensive player taken And the odds vary by book at drafting right now.

You get plus 250 on murphy to be the first defensive player drafted There's been a lot of talk who's the favorite in that prop, uh, dallas turner the alabama, uh defensive back There's been a lot of talk about byron murphy in the media lately And especially over the last like day or so to the point where so so give us a 20 second bio on this murphy Power defensive tackle.

[AJ Hoffman] (37:17 - 37:28)

He's the interior. He was the reason why texas was so good at stopping the run He was he's the the best Run stopper in the country last year I thought my short synopsis was good power defensive tackle.

[RJ Bell] (37:28 - 41:35)

Yeah, I think you know, it sounds right three words three word summary Aaron donald of the college foot. No, no, he's not because he's not that much of a pass rush He's more he's an interior stuffer like these. Yeah, um but There's been so much talk about him in the public media lately that If you look at some books here in vegas, they've dropped his odds dramatically I even saw william hill had him at plus 150 plus 140 to be the first defensive player drafted Where in dallas turner was minus 105 whereas it was a much higher juiced Pet on turner and murphy was like plus 250.

You can still get the plus 250 at draft kings right now I think he is going to be the first defensive player drafted number eight by the atlanta falcons Okay, so here's the thing that makes it tougher when you are a professional Giving out opinions and other people are following is you gotta In general have you're originating something effectively or you're playing at a worse number and that's always tough If you're just betting by yourself, which 99 of the people listening that's what you do You're not when I say you're not giving picks publicly for you know, premium money, whatever, okay This is a great way to go about it, which is yeah, you got a feeling about this one You haven't bet it yet all of a sudden you see it two books.

It's down to 180 or whatever And this isn't even steam chasing because this isn't steam. This is a moment This is a trickle one way or the other because i'm guessing it didn't if it would have been some drastic move Someone would have fired at draft kings because they would have seen that big of a move i'm guessing this is just feds where there's it's a It's a february college basketball day And all of a sudden the line opened up four everywhere, but it was three and a half at the sharp books And now it's gone to three But there's still a four a couple fours out there.

It's not like steam. It's just the momentum. I want to use the rj bell lumberjack Analogy the timber point.

Okay. Okay, the tree has been chopped There are marks all over the base, but the tree has not fallen yet If you look from a distance it might be wavering but it's still up and so byron murphy has not timbered Into favorite status to be the number one defender, but he could very well tomorrow, but that tree could fall tomorrow But even if it doesn't that if you're getting the effectively the old price, yes, you probably got a pretty good bet Yeah, and so I could read you a couple quotes here. Uh one from adam shepter the exact quote There are some front office executives who believe defensive tackle byron murphy has a realistic chance of being the first Defensive player selected on thursday the consensus seems to be That it will be the back end of the top 10 Daniel, jeremiah the nfl network talked about quote it falls off pretty quick at defensive tackle after murphy And that the league has placed more premium on defensive tackles Compared to this edge rushing class, which is a deeper position Who's the third favorite on this the third favorite to be the uh, defensive player?

Yeah is uh, the lat lataya a.j. How do you pronounce it the ucla guy? Latu latu latu latu. Yeah, and what's the odds?

He right now at draft kings. He's actually the second favorite at plus 225, but he has a medical issue So here's what I would say not at the vegas books like I said william hill had uh murphy or all the way down to plus 140 plus 150 so My thought would be this The only thing that troubles me about this pick is when you said he's not really a rusher because what has gotten to be extremely valuable in the nfl because of the fact of they're running the Too high safeties is if they can get pressure from their interior linemen now all of a sudden It's the best of all worlds for them Because the guy can stop the run the theory is because you're trying to stop the run with less players in the box So you bet but if you can also stop the run but also get some pressure you become one of the most, you know, these are the guys like um

[AJ Hoffman] (41:35 - 41:37)

I mean gary donald.

[RJ Bell] (41:37 - 43:49)

Yeah. Well, yeah, he's one of a kind but like with with the kansas city chiefs The the guy from miami that just yeah the guy from miami that just got signed. Um, who picked him up?

I can't remember. Uh, was it wasn't denver who? Oh, it was tennessee, wasn't it?

Tennessee got the the big, uh wilkins. Yeah, christian wilkins. Was it tennessee raiders?

Okay. Okay. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Um Those guys are going for big money, right?

So now if you really effectively think about draft you hear the phrase um Position of value or what's the relative value of the position? Because running back is a great example of that So when you get a running back that gets drafted, you know, we don't see it often these days but like atlanta last year drafted in the top 10 or detroit a little later than that by their Fifth year or even their fourth year. They're like That seventh or eighth highest paid back in the league.

So they're still on the rookie deal But because the draft slots dictate the money and there's no position back So what kind of value are you getting right? Unless there's a superstar. It's a wide receiver.

You're getting it could be a 20 Yeah, I mean look at the receivers that are coming up now Uh like chase right chase is going to be a 30 million dollar receiver and what's the top running back get 12 million? so Again, when you're guessing what's going to happen always keep in mind tight ends and running backs Rarely go early and that's a big driver of that and somehow atlanta has done both But and if you're worrying about latu lutu, um, my friends over at sports information consultant sent me this They said our biggest take with lutu. He has a neck injury.

It's a huge concern and gms should be Worried about enough to drop him out of the top 15 and certainly not be the first defensive player selected So this guy murphy does have a good pressure rate or he did Uh at texas, so maybe not so much the sack rate but pressure which is you got access to like zurr lines like write-ups Just look it up See what he says about the press because to me if I hear he that he can get good pressure from the inside I like that strengths compact frame carries outstanding lean muscle uses twitchy controlled bursts to light up gaps and disrupt play development

[AJ Hoffman] (43:49 - 44:06)

Elite combination of strength balance and flexible power in the lower half quick strike hands help to maneuver around blocks and chase play development pass rush driven by relentless energy And exemplary edge to edge quickness variety of rush approaches are peppered with fluid transitions and counters

[RJ Bell] (44:07 - 45:22)

That's a good write-up. So his 16.2 pressure rate last season Uh, only two defensive tackles in the past five drafts were higher Khaleesia kansi had 17.1 queen and williams 16.3. Okay, so he's like a queen and williams comparison That's good. That's pretty pretty darn good.

I like it. So where is his draft? King's got the best number Yes, it's plus 250 and this is my best bet a little bit different to go under a little bit different It is also on byron murphy under 14 and a half.

So he's got to go in the top 14 Minus 170. So think about this minus 170 Scott thinks there's a really decent chance that this dude might be the first defender off the board I think eighth to the falcons or uh ninth to the bears But just common sense wise even if you even if you're wrong and he only finishes top three Do we really think or let's say top two? There's going to be two defenders taken in the top 14 in this draft And so to get under so in a way your handicap is you like this guy And the ucla guy you think is probably not going to be there.

So what number did you get? Under 14 and a half and a minus 170 Update on draft kings 13 and a half under minus 205 shop around it's out there.

[AJ Hoffman] (45:22 - 45:25)

Yeah. Yes That makes me feel even better about your position.

 

[RJ Bell] (45:26 - 46:36)

You can find this so basically what's happened is that this is an example where the the books are starting to see this but The consensus play all the sharps I respect are landing on this guy together so that By 24 hours before the draft I anticipate everyone is going to go to 13 and a half and then 12 and a half Get in front of it. I like it and I also think psychologically Like I remember two years ago fez and three years ago Even you had a bet on how many offensive players go in the first 32 how many defensive players and it was right around Split down the middle if I remember right? Yes, like 15 and a half 16 and a half.

 

I can't remember Now, what are they saying like nine or ten ten and a half defenders? Okay, so that and we know no one in the top four I mean like we're talking about in the teens right for the first one I think there's a sense a perception of value at that point if you're thinking i'm getting the first **** defensive player I'm getting the best defender and i'm number 11. That's a pretty sweet deal Now you mentioned the bears where the bears have the dude that they got from, uh, washington, right?

 

And that's what yeah now. Is that the same position?

 

[AJ Hoffman] (46:36 - 46:37)

No sweats an edge rusher.

 

[RJ Bell] (46:37 - 48:19)

All right. All right, so, um All right, that makes sense because I know chicago certainly has been looking to bolster their d Obviously they've picked up a lot of I mean, what's the other position for them wide receiver you think potentially? I know that's what i'm saying.

 

They they've had an influx of receivers Yeah, it's it's interesting, uh, by the way, the number on the first pick is crazy, right? I mean like meaning Yeah, what's the current number? Uh, minus 20 000 All right The the only 20 000 wins you 100 faz you on this the i'm not but the only exception would be is if you Are able to bet at a book that gives you reward credits or some kind of comp credits for per dollar wagered That's a it's a cute little way if you've got all this money just sitting in the account to just You know, you you're you're betting a zillion to win nothing But you get those comp credits possibly if they compute it wrong based upon amount risk, but is it wrong? Is it wrong to do it that way? Uh, it is you really should do it based upon what to what the amount to win not the amount to risk now Is there any places in vegas, you know that does that?

 

Yes. Oh, that's interesting I mean being in waste management consultant. It's weird that that you know all this shit Yeah, uh, those I mean those comps can add up so by the way we got after our draft talk here We got a world premiere Because last week if you missed it shame on you But it swept the nation I would say at least in the the niche of sports betting Is fez's rap song not him rapping, but it was an homage Hey, how's that?

 

How much did you how many times did you think about that since you heard it aj?

 

[AJ Hoffman] (48:19 - 48:24)

Uh, I actually didn't think about it until Almost a dozen.

 

[RJ Bell] (48:24 - 50:06)

Okay. Now go ahead. Tell me about it.

 

No, uh, but once I heard the new um, Well now this is interesting because because people were so enthused I got a couple submissions External submission and this one is interesting. It's got a it's it's cello based Do you know what the cello is? Yes, my brother played it's this big ass Instrument that's like you like like you could use it as a sled.

 

It's so long your brother played cello Yeah, and you didn't play any instrument No No musical inclination Whatsoever. Well, we've heard you sing. Uh Convoy, you should see me try to dance So what we'll do is in between the end of the nfl talk and Some nba with mckenzie river stepping in We'll play you the submission that I picked You heard it scott.

 

What do you think? um I favor the original and no one doubts that no one doubts that but what we want to show is that I thought the ending Was especially good. Yeah In the 702 we diversify boys and it's also this everyone isn't a fan of rap But everyone should understand the legend of fez.

 

So what we want to do i'll have maybe a country version next week Oh that i'd like to yeah, yeah You ever hear gin and juice by the country bird? I think the goads or something. It's called.

 

You never heard that. Maybe I have Oh, it's awesome Look that up. It goes.

 

Um At the beginning. It's just it's on an acoustic. It goes.

 

There's so much drama in the Lvc and I mean it's like it's the most countrified version you could ever hear You see it.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (50:06 - 50:06)

Yeah.

 

[RJ Bell] (50:07 - 50:39)

All right. Let's play. Let's just do it right now.

 

Let's play Get the ads out of the way Yeah, I mean this is just Just the beginning just to be you know, well probably will it now we'll listen to half All right. So there's a version of straight out of compton It's a variation on a theme and this is to be honest has been my inspiration With some of the new fez's songs, but let's listen a little bit of this straight out of compton crazy **** named ice q From a gang called leaguers with attitude when i'm called off.

 

[RJ Bell] (50:39 - 50:59)

I gotta start off Squeeze the trigger and bodies are hollow You too boy if you **** with me police are gonna have to come and get me off your ass That's how i'm going out I mean, it's just so She has an angelic.

 

[RJ Bell] (50:59 - 52:07)

What's her name? Uh, nina gordon. Yeah, she has an angelic voice And the words are not angelic But she could sing the first song oh I uh, I mean, yeah, yeah, that's gonna be a version don't worry We'll have one a week for about a year is uh I will say this is i've been a big fan in general of like Deconstructed versions like i've seen like um, emo bands do uh, oops.

 

I did it again or what? like because or like dylan once did karma chameleon the uh, The the uh, not man at work the boy george Yeah, but but i'll give you an example is like um manic monday Right was written by prince right, a lot of people don't know that and When you listen to that broken down like an acoustic it's like it's good. It's great the lyrics.

 

Yeah, so It it's it's always fascinating when something seems cheesy And then you break it down like that or if it seems hardcore and you break it down in the end It's all the artistry is there even if it's in a different guise, I think I agree Well, thank you. Thank you.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (52:07 - 52:45)

No, I do like some of those remixes There was a local band in austin when I was like in in high school who ended up Being a one-hit wonder like kind of mainstream one-hit wonder because there was a song Uh, it was a boys in the hood remake easy boys in the hood remake the band was called dynamite hack, which is a uh a line from caddyshack when uh, Spackler tells what the weed that he's smoking is called dynamite hack Uh, but they like it got like mtv play It was like a big hit that they did of the boys in the hood song. It made their whole career Wow I mean Again, they wouldn't have had a career without that.

 

[RJ Bell] (52:46 - 55:11)

How about that exactly? All right. That was a nice little interlude Fez what did you oh, this is what that was your best bet.

 

Yes All right, so last week I gave a best bet on this, uh on the draft And what's our updated price on that one fez? So we are looking at marvin harrison to go over four and a half Yeah, so not one of the first four picks. We got plus 250 Latest number plus 150.

 

Oh, I like it kind of like our philadelphia. Oh wait, um Doesn't look as good. Let me ask you this.

 

They should be up to oh, uh, let me ask you Still mb just doesn't look good. But um You know, I mean it's funny simmons was talking about this Odds are pretty strong now and b doesn't win a title. I mean he's going to be 30 He he's already beat.

 

I mean he was beat up when he was 20 Maybe he and dan marino can go out for pizza But i'm just saying it's like and and actually if you think about it in bead and I I never knew this stat He's the only mba mvp Ever that hasn't made the conference finals Every other mba mvp now, he's got more of his career left But he's won it already Usually by the time they win it they've made that I guess it shows the wisdom last year when I made it a personal matter of pride that he shouldn't win You remember that aj I wasn't here last week last year. Oh last last year.

 

Yes Do you remember that? I do remember that Give a recap like a synopsis of what you know what the argument was you thought that the at the time the seeming woke movement was pushing for Seeming it was pushing for someone that was less deserving than yeah the the guy the guy who should have won what happened was at one point it was The joker was like minus 350 and then Perkins starts talking about oh, it's racist And and listen, there are a lot of things that are racist I don't for somehow I think about The joker and i'm not thinking like, you know, he'd be loved down in alabama, you know Like wherever there's the typical, you know, the the most prevalence of racism. He I think he'd be Looked at negatively just the same right?

 

I mean, it's like it's not like there's some great love in in down south for Eastern euros.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (55:12 - 55:12)

Yeah.

 

[RJ Bell] (55:12 - 58:01)

Yeah. I mean, you know, I but god Wmba shoe contracts most racist thing ever What are you talking about? Well, i'm glad you asked so three wmba players have shoe contracts.

 

I'll finish my story when fez is done Sorry, I thought it was topical, um, they're all white so that the the brianna, uh stuart, um, Sabrina and now caitlin clark nike's given all three their shoes. No other wmba player has their own shoes Okay, and that's as racist as it gets I think you're using the wrong I I let's just say this race is a factor Let's agree to yes. Yes, but but here's the question if you're nike and for whatever reason um and It's not a business person's job to figure out why something is the case if for whatever reason the contracts that you give to women who are uh black or whatever and not white And versus white and the return on the white ones are better by significant margins Are you gonna say?

 

Hmm that person's stats are really good Uh, but I don't think she's gonna sell much but i'm still gonna give her the money and not give it to the person I think it's gonna sell more So if it might be a sign of in fact, I think it's almost certainly I don't know if racism but where race is a factor in people's acceptance of others, I think that is Unequivocally true for almost everyone in some ways I think you know, even if it's subconscious That I agree with but who's the racist in this case is it nike Yes, so night so they're supposed to So like during the olympics this year, let's say that that you are batting and uh the sprinters and all of a sudden there's uh Or whatever sport it is There's one sport where the the the canyons for example do exceptionally well in distance running, right if I get I got that Right. All right is would it be racist if you only bet canyons in? in uh events that they were Like no because they're gonna win.

 

All right. Well then then what's different about Being said that and maybe this isn't true. Maybe nike's just dumb and they're making a bunch of mistakes, but Wouldn't it be the same thing meaning should I should there be diversity in who gets those contracts?

 

As opposed to Who's going to perform under those contracts? Isn't that the question? Yeah, like was it racist like who's the biggest that's an interesting point on on in the nba Who's the biggest?

 

When it comes to advertisements or sponsorships, I guess we call it who's the biggest white man luka Another eastern european, right? Okay, but does luka luka doesn't have a nike deal.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (58:01 - 58:04)

He's got a jordan brand deal Does he yeah, but it seems like it's hard.

 

[RJ Bell] (58:05 - 58:25)

Chris paul is on chris paul is not white Well, but he's the one that that does the most commercials. It seems like that's my point right and jordan Yeah, and barclay. I mean over the years I mean doubt jokic and luka the only players in the top 15 the only white players in the top 15 of endorsements Okay, so is that racist?

 

Was it?

 

[AJ Hoffman] (58:27 - 58:38)

By the way, there's 12 players in nba history and 12 players in w nba history to have their own signature shoe Everyone from 95 to 2011 were black up until I guess.

 

[RJ Bell] (58:38 - 1:01:29)

Oh, that's interesting up until Brianna stewart in 2021 what I would get what I would guess elena deladon and that's good number what I would guess is that the seeming Femininity of these players has a lot to do with it Meaning if they I think one of the things I Didn't calculate when we were talking caitlin clark and you know how much aj was against it and all that is She apparently has a fiance. So she's a straight or at least seemingly a straight I mean, I don't want to say seemingly it's just in the w nba.

 

There's a significant number of gay lesbian Players and some of them are out and some of them aren't but there are certain femme looks or not so femme looks and I think in general that's probably a big a bigger driver is If you said if it was an objective way to assess that we can all have our own opinions and then say well Which of these I mean, let's Show me the picture the the girls have got I mean are the girls that get these ads pretty cute And look like they could have a boyfriend They're all pleasant looking.

 

Yeah, okay And all three and who would be the player that you think just by performance by merit? They should have a contract and they don't probably Star asia wilson and and is she how would you characterize her butchness? She's athletic.

 

Okay, so see I Makes life easy for me. I don't even have to know the details. I just know human nature Is people like to be turned on right?

 

I mean especially you know, but I brought this up We've already stepped on your story, of course Is it's kind of the opposite where you're talking about the favoritism towards mb versus jokic because well But see that's what's interesting for years and years or decades for time immemorium As tony soprano would say if you were a minority you had it to your disadvantage No doubt about there wasn't like jesse owens didn't benefit from being It's only in the modern era where if the message is right at the right time it can be an advantage And i'm sure that there's not a black on earth that would say hey, let's trade all the **** negativity We've ever had for whatever advantages we might have in certain situations now I think and again, I think net net it's still going to be a rare case that it's an advantage you know over the course of a lifetime, but I'm not it's not to me.

 

I hate either I hate and and let's be honest since there's more of the negative To the minority that should get more attention and some people will only look at. Oh, well Here's an example where the whites are disadvantaged. I think both are wrong.

 

I want it to be merit no matter what myself But how's these ladies look? Oh, you want to see? Yeah, I kind of do What do you think on this aj because you're kind of anti-woman?

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:01:29 - 1:01:46)

No, I mean I I do think that uh, I do think in general that If you're good at sports and you happen to be pretty It's a lot easier to market Yeah, yeah billie jean king didn't get a ton right but on a cornucopia seemed to be a lot of commercials Yeah, martina not as many.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:01:47 - 1:04:20)

Yeah No, but that's what's interesting you you look at what I mean Nike did a massive amount with the williams sisters if I recall I can still remember it was 97 and I was moving to vegas I knew the next january and it was when's the usl but august right? So I was out here in august and the people were moving with me came out We were like, let's spend a week and let's see if we want to do this for real And we were staying at the stardust and um, oh, yeah, it was my birthday so it would have been late august into september and that was the Venus was unranked Was like 16 And she was in the finals under the us open and it was like the beginning of all of it And serena wasn't even playing yet because you know, venus is older and Serena was winning championships like two years ago I mean, it's like that it's I mean you think about in tennis specifically usually back in the day 26 27 They were done with lady players and men's players men's went a little longer What serena did was unbelievable? This is a waikiki question.

 

Were you in like the motel towers? The two-story like um motel or had they built the tower at the stardust yet? No, I don't think it was I don't think the tower was there So it's just like a two it was just nothing but two-story Like um, i'm almost thinking it's almost like barracks from from the military.

 

It's like a motel six basically was there was a No, no, I don't think it was there certainly was some floors that were about you saying the second floor would have been the highest Floor. No, that wasn't the case. I don't well you got we had to look that up.

 

I bet that was the 70s or something When I was going back in the 80s, there was like the west did you ever sleep in the stairwell at the start? Yeah, yeah circus All right, all right, I think we I think I understand why I mean, okay, okay Uh-huh. Uh-huh Was that one of the ones that had the the This is asia wilson of the cases, but this is elena della dunne and uh, brianna stewart and Sabrina unesco and caitlin clark.

 

I see a trend. Yes All right, we got that one solved yep mystery uncovered All right, so here's what I want you guys to do I want you each to give me one additional play that's not an official play But i'm going to pick one of them as my best bet because i've already given one go ahead scott you start. All right Jets to draft a tight end with their first round pick their first pick it is plus 180 Now this is a brock bowers bet.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:04:20 - 1:04:33)

So brock bowers right now. His is his uh draft number is 12 and a half with the under juiced at minus 250 Now he's not going to go in the first Nine picks.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:04:33 - 1:04:39)

Okay. So this is a 10 11 or 12 range the jets at 10

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:04:39 - 1:04:48)

In my opinion don't pass on brock bowers because they're all in with aaron rogers for this one year with the addition of uh williams

 

[RJ Bell] (1:04:48 - 1:05:00)

So you like the bet that just the jets getting him my pick is the Instead of doing bowers under 12 and a half minus 250 the jets to draft a tight end with their first pick is plus 180

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:05:01 - 1:05:05)

I I don't like this either i'll push the button as well

 

[RJ Bell] (1:05:05 - 1:05:10)

All right Now he let's see if he he can decide if he wants the action because I force him to give the pick

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:05:10 - 1:05:38)

But what's your what's everyone's rationale teams are less willing to draft these tight ends high anymore because Having having them you don't get as much value then the bills just do that not not in the top 10 uh, but it like This was a discussion I was having with lance The idea of using a high pick on a tight end is kind of what you were talking about earlier with running backs Like yeah, exactly the value that you have in year five is not the same as the value you have on your floor but

 

[RJ Bell] (1:05:39 - 1:06:54)

Some would argue that seeing what sam laporta did last year for the lions and has people thinking brock bowers He was picked in the third round wasn't he laporta? Yeah, but rookie tight end that showed what you know, that's the idea of what bowers can be for the jets.

 

Here's why I probably lean more towards scott Here's why the jets have an owner or a gm who has to win next year or it's over. Johnny and I don't think he's thinking about year four. I don't think he's thinking I think what piece do we need to To make this a finished product and tight end.

 

I mean they've been getting linemen in a lot of linemen I'm sure they'll pick alignment in the first two or three rounds. If not, you know, that's where i'm going. All right, go ahead because What train wrecked the jets year last year is they couldn't protect their quarterback?

 

And so obviously rogers gets knocked out in the first round in the first game. So first series first series But they filled that void in free agency. That's what I mean rookie that the draft is not starting over the guys that they saw I just think the depth of the o-line.

 

No, no Absolutely has to be the first priority versus a new toy, you know weapon I don't know how to price this but i'd love to have a bet you take all the linemen He we take the tight end.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:06:54 - 1:07:18)

It is right now Lineman is minus 115 tight end plus 180 wide receiver plus 235, right See the wide receiver interests me actually Roma dunes that would be and it could happen. So there's two ways Speaking of the all-in i've heard the jets rumored to trade up joel No for a wide receiver for For marvin harrison.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:07:18 - 1:10:30)

So hold on a second. This is interesting What are the uh, so the one of the line? So what are the i'd up everyone who's not alignment and and where they have all the different odds and let's see what the odds Are I mean, let's see if it's alignment or not.

 

What what the bet looks like so You want me to give you numbers? Three of them so offensive lineman is the favorite at minus 115. All right Second favorite is tight end plus 180.

 

Well, first of all 115 is enough That means if it's a 30 cent straddle, that's probably pretty much straight down the middle, right? Wouldn't you agree? the meaning that If it's minus 115 on lineman, the other would be minus one.

 

So it's like so it's a 50 percent. Yeah At least yeah 50 they're taking alignment. I agree All right, so if you want to take line yes, and I take no for the jets i'd like that bet I see And you've got two pass obviously that are both underdogs.

 

Yes. Yeah. Yeah, because you got you're you're getting an even money Yeah, I think it's minus 150.

 

All right, that's a bet 300 All right And wide receivers plus 215 plus 235 235. All right, and it doesn't and then it doesn't matter if they trade up The next is cornerback at plus 2500 so clearly either offensive lineman tight end or wide receiver I still win if it's a corner. Okay, the three players that i've been seen and heard the jets linked to is Brock bowers Roma dunze or malik neighbors, whichever one's available Besides harrison and the only offensive lineman i've seen them linked to is joe alt but if joe alt goes like fifth overall The jets are not going to reach for an offensive lineman at 10.

 

Oh, they're Listen the jets are going to be fired if they don't win this year Yeah, and lineman in year one lineman don't like we said it's slow to develop these I mean look look look at pittsburgh last year pick the georgia guy. He didn't even start until like game 10 Here here's where if it was priced minus 115 plus 160 and plus 235 that'd be like a linear boom boom boom And you could make the case that the minus 115 and the plus 235 kind of average out to plus 160 So that all three are each one is equally likely one third one third one third Because the plus 160 is actually plus 180. I would say now um It it should be priced slightly above the plus 200 instead of a plus 180.

 

There's too much vig in the plus 180 number Okay, we're talking. Oh, we're talking about not our bat. We're talking about his recommendation.

 

Yes. Okay. Um I agree in general there's probably twenty percent or whatever hold in this because that when they and But I think our bet is smooth Um, but i'm gonna pass.

 

I already got exposure here, too So i'm gonna pass on that one aj what's yours? But but again, if somehow you can talk someone in the taking fez's side, that'd be interesting Like having something when we made a bet fez that one of these markets, you know one of these. Um, you know online, uh Books or whatever would then put the exact prop up the fed side and the rj side.

 

So just want to maybe Mention one thing that might sway you That's already inside on fan duel the odds to be the number 10 overall pick brock bowers plus 145

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:10:30 - 1:10:34)

Next player troy fontanue plus 800 Okay

 

[RJ Bell] (1:10:35 - 1:11:33)

So brock bowers is the overwhelming favorite to go number 10 to the jets So what so you're saying that on one market you get plus 180 but in the other market it's a big favorite Well, the jets might not be the number 10, you know that this is yeah, but I mean We don't we don't know they're going to take you know, which lineman they would take For the jets, there's different lineman paths. There's only one tight end path for the jets Okay.

 

So what other lineman could I mean? Wow? the next lineman after um after joe alt is uh jc latham Maybe the alabama offensive tackle or for wago or or fontano the washington guy.

 

That's the set at the plus 800 to go 10 Oh, by the way real quick. We were talking alabama's cornerback. Uh was in one of the go first Uh dallas turner.

 

Yeah, is that right? Okay Uh lombardi was talking about how if you look at what alabama did last year They played he's the edge guy not the club. Oh, i'm sorry Who's the cornerback for them because I think they got one that's in the mixer.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:11:33 - 1:11:37)

I thought you said corner That's why dallas turner terry on arnold you're talking about.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:11:37 - 1:12:03)

Okay, but dallas turner is the favorite still to go first as far as Defenders. Yeah, okay And the point I was going to make and and it's not a point now Is that lombardi was making the point that the cornerback they played a ton of zone Which is very unusual for alabama and a sign that that saban didn't have as much faith In his with his d backs as he usually had so not a good sign I thought but again It's not pertinent to that.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:12:03 - 1:12:05)

Yeah arnold who could be the first defensive back.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:12:05 - 1:12:05)

Yeah. Okay.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:12:05 - 1:12:06)

Yep.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:12:06 - 1:12:23)

All right What do you do what you did you give another pick no, I will go ahead Uh round one big 12 players drafted. I like under three and a half at plus 130 So this sounds like a zirline special. No, actually big 12.

 

I was hoping though

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:12:23 - 1:13:05)

This has been kind of a uh, it's been me digging through does texas and out in oklahoma texas and oklahoma count and the i've looked at a ton of mock drafts today and There's two guys who pop up in every one of them byron Byron murphy who these guys have talked a lot about obviously likely to go in in round one The other guy is an oklahoma offensive lineman Uh, he seems to pop up in tyler guyton seems to pop up in almost every mock draft at around 30 I've seen one mock draft out of six that I looked at today that even had a third And big 12 player that is what exactly under three and a half big 12 players drafted and it's plus

 

[RJ Bell] (1:13:05 - 1:15:22)

130 and you're saying most of them don't even have they have don't even have a third player from the big has that ever Happened with the big 12 to be this week. They only have like two guys and I mean there's been there's been several years Where texas didn't have a player draft who's putting that?

 

Who's putting that prop up? uh draft kings Okay. So this is this is the opposite of why I liked your other one because I can't imagine how they'd be so off So like what are we missing?

 

reputation they could they could be looking at the history of the big 12 and like I I know like When I looked at acc analysis i'm like, oh the last two years There's been four guys from the acc in each and every year and they made it four and a half I don't know who we're missing I don't know. They usually don't but again, this isn't a super liquid market Does anyone else have this? Is there anyone else that has this price?

 

I mean not at the same price, but this prop I have it's not at mgm. It's not it's certainly not at circa Okay, I mean I like it feds. What's your last?

 

What's your second one? My second one? I got to do a bridge jumper that there's all right.

 

I'm not gonna do that. But go ahead There's no way this is gonna lose. So we are gonna take the line williams number one.

 

We are gonna take Especially if you get um comfort joe waltz to be the first offensive lineman drafted I saw this my 750 at a book. I can't recall if it was draft kings or where it was I I think this is a night just so the jets don't take them. I think this is a 95 I think conservatively 95 in other words every single mock.

 

Here's why well, hold on. Hold on tennessee Here's here minus 700 on draft kings. Here's what I don't like about this.

 

In fact, I kind of like the other side I don't think tennessee's taking alignment Like I mean, that's been the one of the most mock. They don't don't care. He's because this guy is like the the um It's possible he falls out of the top seven, but the first guy off the board he is so much what's his over under Under seven half minus 375.

 

Okay, but you're saying first line. So what's of the over unders? What's the second favorite alignments over under let's see fuaga of oregon is over 12 and a half lay 60 um over lay 60 latham of alabama is Under 14 f lay 220.

 

So he's like 13.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:15:22 - 1:15:33)

All right, so he everyone else is in the 20s I agree with this one, too I I was like my bridge jumper that I texted fez earlier today was Joe alt top 10 minus a thousand like I said, there's no way he doesn't go in the top 10.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:15:33 - 1:16:18)

It's it's a it's Well, remember every every draft there's somebody that drops for reasons. I think unexplained i'm not saying it's it I'm, just saying I think we've got to be careful with that Puts on the weed gas mask My only concern is the crazy raiders get a pick in the top 10 because the raiders can remember they took that that that leatherhead guy That should have gotten the second round as a first round pick but other than the raiders No one is not going to pick alt. I think the one sweat that you're going to have is if the chargers trade out of five Because I think everyone believes that jim harbaugh's, you know his style He's gonna draft joe alt have the offensive lineman there at number five But if the chargers trade out of five and somebody comes in like in the market for a quarterback or whatever

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:16:19 - 1:16:30)

Then it's like that's him saying first offensive lineman taken because even if the chargers trade back Eventually someone's going to take an offensive lineman and the gap between I guess I was thinking about your top 10

 

[RJ Bell] (1:16:30 - 1:20:45)

I agree with that a lot is of the bets we're considering here The first lineman I like a lot more than over under a certain number I think that I yes my gut feeling Yeah, okay The second he doesn't go number one that organization that the the talking heads are going to number one as as a line There's the number one The talking heads are going to lose their minds.

 

They're going to be like, oh my god Alt was was available and they chose this this guy. What are they doing? You think that the teams are worried about what mal kuyper says?

 

yes, because I don't think I think they are because if they if they if they if they reach and they make a pick that Gets graded as like a d or f and then the guy busts. I think it It really is a problem for their number one pick you and if you're going to reach you better Let's just say this right if my gm And some hypothetical world that I own a team if they're if he's that milk hyper dictate that's his last day Well, I you see I can see what I can see that if someone's self-interest was so strong They thought hey, I want to make the safe play here because like no one gets fired for buying ibm That's a great analogy.

 

I don't want that guy Yes, but if i'm that guy and I and i've got ibm and i've got fly by night and I think they're equal stocks And I think fly by night's slightly better. I'm still buying ibm. There we go.

 

Fez. You wouldn't be my gm. Yep All right so I had want nothing to do with that lineman all because I again I think that it's gonna be I don't I I'm, not sure if I even like the first lineman or not.

 

I like it better than you know, the other bet I'd lay minus 800. All right. There you go.

 

Um All right, so i'm gonna go with aj's crazy bet, but you know what? I can't tell you why it's wrong But i'm not sure how much I would bet on it myself because it feels wrong. I'm gonna look into it Okay, i'm gonna do a little research because remember If you don't know why something's a good bet and probably isn't a good bet You've learned that haven't you learned that?

 

All right. Um Any closing thoughts on the draft? I i'll just review a few of the general tenants I'll in fact i'll tweet out the draft equity.

 

Um list and that will just give you an idea of how much Incoming talent there will be now how well they draft I underestimate or I undervalue What the talking heads say and belichick by the way anyone? Most people probably watching the draft Belichick is going to be live for hours and hours on Uh, one of the espns i'm not sure the second one or whatever pat math mcafee show um I'm, I watched the 40 minutes. He did previewing it He he said a couple things already that um, I hadn't ever heard so I think it's gonna be a lot of wisdom there with belichick um In general Ignore the post-draft analysis In that oh look so and so gets an a because tell me the last time the ravens Have not gotten an a is what I want to I mean there there there is so much it's almost like if if you think like the gm like it's It's like I like springsteen.

 

Oh, he's got a new arm Chances are you're gonna like like the arm right if you like springsteen unless it's nebraska. I love nebraska. Oh, I can't stand it I don't understand it You don't understand they blew up the auto plant in malwa late last month I'd much prefer they blow up the chicken man in philly last night.

 

That's the song air Atlantic city. All right. Um Speaking of a song i'm gonna finish my draft take but first let's do the world premiere Afez's new one It's it's very eclectic Farewell ride to the bus station only two times super contest And fez did it back to back impossible to win trading him.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:20:45 - 1:21:57)

True that he's the shark. You're the snack. You're the snack Rollies are a tick and tricks are a talking scrub clean hotties challenger made with kobe won't be done betting till the bookies Got nothing left except ptsd He's a mother f to the z to the double z that's double my money or nothing z Don't **** with him This is Let's be honest the don't **** with him is hilarious.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:21:57 - 1:22:28)

Is that a cello? Yes I should be like folding laundry and randomly just like saying it to myself Is We'll have that as a drop ready to go the funny thing is is how in one week The idea of that being produced in my spare time has gotten to be normal

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:22:29 - 1:22:32)

But it yeah I don't know if that's a good thing

 

[RJ Bell] (1:22:32 - 1:24:02)

Technology is is amazed i've gotten so good at this I i've spent a lot of time on there's all kind of prompts if you know Like I can put a solo anywhere.

 

I want now I can dictate how they sing Uh, yeah, it was random. I mean it took a long time last week's it was random. We got it this I can kind of control So every week we'll have a slightly different version of it Until I get bored with it All right If you can get a information and the line is moving the day of the draft Those are often good bets, even though the line has moved significantly Um, I can't remember what was it?

 

Is that tennessee quarter who was the? there was a quarterback like three years ago, and it came out and then We bet like it went from Pick them to like minus 180 And we bet it and it was like you were saying. Oh, that's it's it's almost a lock Do you remember the situation?

 

I remember jamar chase wearing like bangle sneakers On his feet when the bangles were trying to figure out whether to take him or to take the lineman Yeah, yeah, so but it's the same kind of soul. Yeah, so I guess what i'm saying is Usually if a line moves significantly I mean imagine the following imagine, you know what the first song of the halftime show is because you're the singer I got I was saying that when Everybody thought aiden hutchinson was going to be the first pick in the draft.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:24:02 - 1:24:14)

I think it was at 2022 and Then suddenly out of nowhere trayvon walker who wasn't that was day That was like four or five days before the draft Once it moved it was like it was gone that was that could be fraught with risk.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:24:14 - 1:31:55)

Yeah in fact If there's anything I don't I I would say avoid that that that falls into the situation of whenever there's the wild swings Before you're dead. No one, you know belichick made an interesting point. He said Most of these buildings aren't even telling people except the inner inner core who they're picking And some buildings will actually say someone they're picking they're not Because they want the I mean that they won't tell anyone meaning the the fifth guy on the totem pole Meaning he's a power broker.

 

He's a known guy He might not know if he's not in on the decision. Why does he have to know until draft day? so what will often happen is They'll be get get the wrong impression and they're serious people that are part of the organization, but they don't know Right, but come game day or draft day There's there's more practical reasons that people have to know two days ago.

 

Yeah drake may to your point Went to who was going to get picked second drake may or jayden daniels And which one's going to go off the board first and drake may went from plus 280 to minus 110 Now he's plus 380 Exactly, and that's an example where if you just wait to buy that or buy the lows of any viable option you do well on these it seems like Um, because what happened not on the game day come come draft day And again, this is art not science. Well, I think in general I would say If the news comes out that yeah, so it looks like they were taking him to it I mean baker mayfield.

 

It was like six hours before it came out and everyone knew it and I'm, not saying it can never be wrong wrong It can be but it's not going to be wrong very often except the movie draft day. Exactly. I know you like take both One and I I laid 1200 I saw the owner with this jersey and so if you if you're attentive if you're attentive on Draft day and it looks like the reporting is from legitimate places and the line might have been pick them And now it might be minus 200.

 

You're thinking I can't put no if it's a known thing Minus 200. It's a good bet right now. I'm not saying like 1500 I'm saying within range, but I would say that I would make bets like this After a significant line move in ways.

 

I would never bet any game. It doesn't matter what the game is It doesn't I would never bet that way This is why bookmakers got murdered for years on the draft because the years of experience Work against them because they're so used to ah, they're betting the 49ers minus 160. We'll move up to minus 180 We'll move to minus 190 now.

 

No suckers gotta be a sucker bet but um No concept of oh my god, I gotta move from minus 160 minus 260. It's This money is so sharp. You know what i'm gonna do next year start in a month before or even before that is pick the markets we're gonna track and say let's Say when yeah, let's look at the high if we looked at the high and low point and i'm not saying back last year Right i'm saying within the range of post this season meaning there's not been another game played Right since michigan won the title if we started at that point And said what's the high and low in all these markets? You could have had a I think almost every market plus money on almost everyone I mean, maybe not everyone but almost yeah the volatility of it.

 

Yeah. I mean caleb it would be an exception, right? All right.

 

Any any other conceptual things fast? uh, I think just Like the super bowl It's this is really fun and it's fun to bet like five dollars on like 20 different things I'm, not adverse to that at all, you know, have a good time or bet 17 for a thousand each Yeah, don't don't be me. Don't be crazy.

 

Don't f with feds. Don't be watching the draft and saying oh god Like don't take a loss on the draft so significant that it's going to ruin your month or your week your month or etc Good advice guys and don't overeat Don't eat too much fried food drink I mean, there's all kind of things that will screw you up But feds is sick unless you go to texas d brazil and then have 12 lamb chops. It's so good if someone else is buying the soda Yeah They charge for each one.

 

Oh One other thing The the guys who are these draft nicks there's there's two possibilities And I think zirline would actually be not in the group i'm talking about there's the people that are networked meaning they don't They're not scouts Schefter, oh, i'm, sorry schefter khanna, but he's not a draft expert. Uh, mcshay, you know, who's not not at espn anymore obviously mel kuiper If they have a guy on their final mock when it comes out In a position that they haven't had in any of the prior mocks That is information that someone in the building Confirmed to him because why would it be? I mean you had a year to think about it and now there's some receiver that you haven't seen there before From someone who's information based a guy like zirline is a scout a true scout.

 

Yeah, he's got his opinions He might hear some scuttlebutt, but in general he's thinking I know how good these players are I know what the uh teams think of them. I know their needs He's using logic But the information guys and that's the big guys the nfo network guy or zirline's and is he still with nfo network? But they let everyone go.

 

He's still he might still hanging around. Um They but the guy's like what's his name? Um Bucky bucky brooks.

 

Yeah. Yeah guys like that got contacts in the league But if they have someone where they had him a month ago chances are it's either they got confirmed it but you can't tell Or they're still guessing Right, but if it's someone new That's usually information makes sense. Yeah, it's like to use a poker analogy It's almost like you're pot committed and then you fold.

 

It's almost like you're certain you're You're gonna get so much money in that pot You've put out six mocks and every one of them, but no one cares except the final mock So if anything, it's a you you win by surrendering, right? But if you have no idea you're gonna stick with the guy you've had the whole way You're not gonna randomly guess something exactly because you've invested so much into that pot that you've got to be right more than half the time Plus in theory, there's no change to what led you to believe it before Because there's no new information in theory because everyone doesn't leak always All right McKenzie rivers joints had some good insight. We went strong last week collectively uh, but the unders have been going crazy to the under and mckenzie and Scott and aj fez was here for that, right was Fez gonna have about a 20 minute discussion that we'll throw to here in a few minutes But I wanted to quantify these unders so what we did was we looked at game one and said, all right What's the average total in those games? And it was 217 a little less than 217 217 or so.

 

Okay now game two Which has two games left, but those totals are already out um The average was two twelve and a half Okay, so four and a half point adjustment between game one and two and There's no home court changes between game one and two So in theory, these are the exact same teams playing exactly the same circumstances If anything, I think game ones tend to have more on you know I mean each round as you get to game five six seven the totals go down But really not between game one and two if i'm if I recall

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:31:55 - 1:32:00)

No, if anything historically we've seen games two slightly higher scoring as teams are a little bit more familiar.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:32:00 - 1:33:02)

Yeah. Yeah so, um Now game three we've already either got lines four or we're projecting in two of the games And that is 209 now. So 217 to 212 and a half To 209 that's a total of eight points of adjustment Is now they are switching home in a way, but I don't have any great sense that they're going to venues at 10 towards under So I think we can call that even At least over the course of the whole league Now how much did the games go under first round or first game 13 points per game on average?

 

second game 13 points per game on average that averages over game one and two aj what? 13 points exactly. You're you've learned something They've adjusted eight They fell short by 13.

 

Is that too much adjustment not enough? What's your sense?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:33:03 - 1:34:14)

I've loved watching these games because every time watching the regular season i'm like, oh, that's a whistle. They're gonna stop the game again Oh, that's a whistle It's been the exact opposite and we saw in the nick sixers games people are falling Do you feel like that was the case in the second after the all-star break? Much less but teams weren't as intense because people are resting and there was some situations But I feel like max intensity referees stepping out of the way makes the most exciting basketball.

 

I mean What it was probably the most exciting doubleheader in history the uh sixers nicks Lakers nuggets you get that when it's a tight game and and there's not a you know foul fest down there down the stretch okay, so What do you think about like right now if you had to bet totals? Are you i'm still betting under because I don't think they're going to start calling more fouls I think seems they're still going to be slapping each other just as much playing just as intense defense And historically we've seen game one's being slightly under game two's being slightly over but as you get later into the series Scoring goes down and adjusted and the theory is that there's going to be a natural downward trend even if there wasn't exactly So in any given year game sevens are going to be the least scoring game six slightly more in reverse order So here's my thought

 

[RJ Bell] (1:34:14 - 1:34:41)

The nba didn't want it to be where anyone could get a bunch of points but It feels like maybe it might come a time where they say whoa nelly Yeah, right because we don't want it to be I mean No one really loved the pacers and the nicks or the heat and the nicks back in like 99 Right, you know, I guess that would have been when pat riley was there what and the well pat riley was with the nicks But then he was with miami and yeah

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:34:42 - 1:34:43)

yeah, van gundy, uh

 

[RJ Bell] (1:34:45 - 1:35:31)

exactly, so I I think I mean it just goes to show you I hate when things happen broadly Because the market response now, I guess if you don't believe in it, it's good because you can fade right?

 

But I I tend to believe in it Because I think if anything they just extend it whatever More physical play they allow Between the regular season the playoffs. I think they did that same increment here But since they already did an increment Since the all-star break the double whammy it feels now. Do you think there's certain teams?

 

Like for example the clip there's certain teams that would it be fair to say whoever did poorly in this after the all-star break? relative to the first half if they're in the playoffs the theory is that the even an extension of these rules or

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:35:31 - 1:36:03)

Let's say less foul calls would affect them even more Yeah And the clippers are a great example because they had a great You know month before the all-star break with james harden fitting into that team Then they fell off a cliff ty loo called him soft They had and people were saying what they're just apathetic They're waiting for the playoffs to start but they have foul merchants James harden is probably the number one example of people complaining. Why is that guy back in the line?

 

He gets more than half of his points from the free throw line Maybe the sixers are another example because imbeed also is falls into that category Of needing to get to the free throw line a lot to be his most effective

 

[RJ Bell] (1:36:03 - 1:36:57)

Okay So pulling this up Looking at the all-star break ats margin I got three teams that excelled that are in the playoffs two teams that did very poorly mckenzie, tell me if it feels like that the Way the games are being officiated was a driver of this So, uh number one was uh amongst the playoff teams. Amazingly the spurs were number one 19 And eight against the spread post all-star break in the regular season, obviously but The dallas mavericks also 19 and 8 Now here's what's interesting about dallas 19 and 8 against the spread All right, same exact same as the spurs spurs ats margin 5.3 points plus Dallas a half a point per game plus

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:36:58 - 1:37:07)

One 19 and 8 plus a half a point that is not supposed to be well It's really 19 and 6 because the last two games of the season they arrested everybody and lost by like 40 points.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:37:07 - 1:37:29)

Okay? Okay, so i'm going to i'm going to check that's interesting. So i'm going to say and uh game number Is 80 or less?

 

All right. Let's see. How much that changes it.

 

That's a good insight game number Equal to 80 Okay That plus number's got to go up now.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:37:29 - 1:37:32)

I mean i'm gonna say it's plus 3.8 All right.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:37:32 - 1:37:55)

Let's see Okay, the mavs are plus 3.04 Pretty strong pretty strong still a little lat, but but great great insight there actually All right, so the mavs let's count them as legit as a a real good second half team I know the defense picked up does it feel like the officiating was a big part of that? And that would extend into the playoffs

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:37:55 - 1:38:00)

Uh, I don't I I don't feel like they live at the free throw line because it's not a lot of drive

 

[RJ Bell] (1:38:00 - 1:38:43)

Well, remember I want to get a lot of jumpers up correct me if i'm wrong It could be how much you get fouled but it also could be more importantly because The players are going to the teams are going to moderate the number of fouls that they do Would just be how aggressive can you play? Right.

 

So it's almost like republican democrat. They're gonna each party's gonna be pretty much Close to the middle and that's why like if you look at uh, hillar or uh, bill clinton in like 92 he looks like John mccain did you know, I mean like there's just a different points things ebb and flow. Yeah I think that in general teams aren't just going to foul out they're going to Only play aggressive to the point of getting the number So I think if anything it's going to be are you scoring more because the other team

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:38:43 - 1:38:54)

Or scoring less because the other team's able to clamp it down more and and guys like luka and kairi Not two great defenders They can be a half step behind and be reaching to catch up and not get called stay in the game

 

[RJ Bell] (1:38:54 - 1:39:08)

That's interesting because you gotta wonder And I don't know the answer to this, but I would think the good defenders would Like in a way you're saying that it causes parity where even bad defenders can defend i'm not sure

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:39:08 - 1:39:13)

But you well, especially them because they're such so important offensively where they won't take risks if they if they're gonna

 

[RJ Bell] (1:39:13 - 1:39:26)

So you're saying it doesn't allow them to really d up In some great way, but it allows them to play viable defense But still not foul or or maybe they play the same defense and they're just not fouling out at all

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:39:26 - 1:39:37)

In the game more often which they need but dallas had uh, what you said two starters They changed they added pj washington and uh gifford to the starting lineup frank gifford No, no

 

[RJ Bell] (1:39:38 - 1:40:01)

Take take take You remember that? Oh my god, howard used to kill her.

 

Oh, yeah, they had some chant where it was gafford gafford Sorry, it was going to kathy lee take take take kathy lee who somehow she was running a sweatshop or something allegedly all right orlando magic also With a very good record i'll get the exact one in the second half

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:40:01 - 1:40:33)

Now they're a team that was way better than expectations you look at their over-under they were like 15 games up I think they were the number one team and they don't have any good offensive players I mean, we've seen that in the playoffs They have some league average players that are shooting a lot, but they don't have really ways to win on offense But they were the number two defense in the league. That's how they surprised to the upside so much my thinking is it becomes like uh more of a football match and they have Guys that a football match they have guys that make their living on defense a football match The jets are playing On the pitch who's winning the match?

 

[RJ Bell] (1:40:33 - 1:41:36)

state uh, yeah, their defense is allowed to come to the four more often because that's Most of the guys are getting paid to be on that side of the court 36 and 19 Post all-star break for the magic the last team and they did well all year boston and uh, they're at um 4.7 points per game 4.7 to the advantage against the spread now. So let's see what they did in the first half I I want to see that because it seems like that's going to be pretty good too. And really the question would be the difference Okay, so looking before the all-star break the magic were number one when it comes to record 36 and 19 against the spread So they were good before good after yeah, it's true.

 

Uh, boston though was great straight up 43 and 12 But was below 500 against the spread slightly so It seems like is this help boston or it could be a situation that their depth Is such that even in the dog days of the season they are able to play decently even when they rest people

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:41:36 - 1:41:42)

Well, they famously take the most threes by far in the nba So that means you're less reliant on getting the calls because you rarely get fouled on a three

 

[RJ Bell] (1:41:44 - 1:43:22)

See, I I don't know if I agree with the idea of I don't think I mean if we look at the number of fouls I'm guessing they didn't go up very much In fact I can do that right now because if i'm right about that and we'll see in a second or you go down very much um okay get down very much I what i'm saying is I I believe that the The game's equilibrium changed, but the number of fouls won't change um by any and i'm thinking after the first week I think for the first week it's going to make sense that people are going to get adjusted to it right over time But let's see here Actually the fouls are down by two fouls a game So the theory again is that the league said hey, we are not playing enough defense. Let's let the let's have a less of a Sensitive whistle it allowed teams to react and it seems in multiple ways One of them being hey, there's just gonna be less fouls now to me if you're smart as a team And i'd be interested to see how the really smart teams did it You would think it's like ramp up your defense till you get back to that point, but the league hasn't done that So here we are okay um, so with this data Is there any team that jumps out at you as? Hey, uh, oh, I guess we haven't even talked about the bad teams We should do that right now and then we can continue.

 

So the two really bad teams the worst the clippers 10 and 19 against the spread Now harden famous for being a I think you call it a foul merchant. Yes Do you do you feel like that the the way the refs are calling the games affected the clevers?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:43:22 - 1:44:23)

Yeah, I think psychologically as well as just on a per play basis. They're not getting the calls they used to they seem to uh, be less intense And we've seen that in the first couple games their offense I mean they won game one, but their offense has gone far under their team total both games So what's been the most surprising series so far to you? Uh, unfortunately is the is the one that you warned me about with my blind spot I would say the the suns and the wolves where the suns were like in the game through three and a half quarters But that's how they were against denver last year too, weren't they?

 

Yeah, I mean they tied the series up four four i'm, hoping that that happens again for my uh sons bet uh, hope they make it a series again, but As soon as they got down they just like let go of the rope It seemed like it seemed like all that talent doesn't help you be cohesive and help you stay. Uh, stay locked in Because it's not like they got a couple calls that went against them But they just had like a 16-0 run in the fourth quarter. That was really Unexplicable unless you know, they didn't they weren't together Well, I mean, let's be honest.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:44:23 - 1:44:53)

Durant is a strange bird Yes, sure. And I mean a great talent But and i'm not even saying leaving. I mean to me.

 

I thought it was weaker to go to golden state than it was to leave But in a weird way, I think they were both weak because You shouldn't want to go there. You should want to win yourself I mean that's been debated till everyone's blue that it follows the nba But then once you're there and you're winning you have a chance for a true dynasty Like how many would they could they have won?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:44:54 - 1:45:10)

another two they were they were Or I guess they came away from the first three peats since jordan And then they would have been just as good without without injuries. They could have won another two A game away. What do you mean?

 

There were two games away. They lost in six to the raptors We were looking for three feet without and durant wasn't there but for eight minutes in that series.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:45:10 - 1:45:32)

Mm-hmm Yeah, the um What's amazing is that golden state won the one they did with I said at the time I think you were here aj's I said This is going to be the worst champion we've seen And I mean boy that's borne out I would think But give them in a weird way that is more impressive They were able to win that thing when you look back on the team they were true winners

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:45:33 - 1:45:48)

No, I agree It kind of puts a cherry on top of the dynasty and it showed that they could win post durant showed they didn't need him Uh, I just think it makes the their overall portfolio even stronger which not that they need it But it does make it look like they didn't need kd to come

 

[RJ Bell] (1:45:49 - 1:46:00)

Yeah, I I think what it says is they were not the best team in the league But they play like the best team when the chips are down that kind of speaks to their abilities Right beyond their natural talent

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:46:00 - 1:46:07)

They had that drant didn't so he went there and like borrowed that gusto that grit for a couple championships that no

 

[RJ Bell] (1:46:07 - 1:46:36)

Yeah, but you know something you really think about it and this probably it probably had something to do with the black white thing I'm, not sure because you know, I can only be one but It strikes me that if you were a superstar or So when you were growing up in chicago, was there anyone that was like a contemporary yours that had The sense he was d1 and he was like this guy's gonna be in the league one day Like was there anyone playing around?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:46:37 - 1:46:41)

Um, I went to see derrick rose. He was in high school the same time as me Okay, but not anyone you knew no.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:46:41 - 1:48:26)

All right, because you gotta wonder if you're 14 years old and you're Let's say in many cases with the urban players from a underprivileged background But you're being treated like you're the next coming right you you know the the local whoever power brokers you want, you know, they You know who knows exactly all what's going on but it's a net win it seems like for those kids, right? Now you got coaches telling you when you're left, you know blue They're blue in the face do this play defensive and you're maybe listening. Maybe you're not but you're really good.

 

All right now Once you get to the league and then you sign that second, you know The big contract and you've got 80 mil and we're talking about the best players here You've got 80 mil on the bank 100 mil in the bank In a weird way, it feels like the nba players have rebelled against the idea that the chip even matters But you some of these guys it's almost like the sport The talking heads want them to be embarrassed like so, you know, bradley beal. You're not a winner And again, i'm not saying he's i'm just trying to look at all these players It does feel like that when you see these players speak candidly After their career like stephen jackson if i'm thinking of the right guy that was is on the herd sometime It does it feels like they want to win but it feels like getting the bag is so much more important And I just wonder if there's a disconnect in our minds to what we think they should be feeling and what they're really feeling And I think that could be the case for white or black but it it does feel like the case If you have a lot of white sports casters telling you what you should be feeling But you've got a mansion

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:48:27 - 1:48:36)

I can see how you would want to say shut the f up Was there anyone ever less excited to win a championship than nicole yokas? She seemed Like he was very so bothered.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:48:36 - 1:48:40)

I'm ready to get home. He was so annoyed that they had why are you still parade parade?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:48:40 - 1:49:08)

Kevin durant specifically I I mean people will never never say that money's the number one driving force But he's like, I don't care if I win a championship. He said this before I just I just want to give everything I have to the game. It's like it's like a it's like a music instrument for me.

 

You know, it's it's just my craft It's my love. I mean, that's what he says I I kind of believe him but um I think that's why he left the warriors because he's like This is not allowing me to be free in my in my thing except he was the guy with the warriors It was free, right?

 

[RJ Bell] (1:49:08 - 1:49:13)

Exactly. I mean staff is the one staff is the one that allowed his game to be subordinate.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:49:14 - 1:49:42)

Absolutely he he felt he could be the most himself if he didn't care what other people said and all the uh, uh literati talking about him he could be He could love the game the most if he would have stayed with the warriors in that system and he didn't I and I think he should regret it. I mean he should regret it I think if he cared about being the best basketball player he could be he could have done that in golden state Yeah, and i'm not even saying durant is amongst the bad Ones regarding wanting to win or not.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:49:43 - 1:50:44)

Obviously, he's not jordan when it comes to you know Winning being so important, but he he may be in the top half, but i'm just saying in general It seems like there's like he's at least one and he's been He's one of the rare players if you don't win it was going to be a real mark against you. I mean Other players bradley be i mean, let's think about trey young. I mean those types it's going to be hey, you know win a lot But it's not like no one says the dominique, you know, you didn't win a title But it's it's the guys that are bar tried to put into the greatest of all time conversation because it Requires a certain amount of winning.

 

Yeah, but but I think what i'm saying is if you're like the 25th best player in the league When you're at your prime and you have a year or two there and a year or two in the 30, you know one of those careers You finish with 200 million in the bank if you don't go to a finals Should you like we want them to feel like they're they're depressed the rest of their lives It doesn't feel like that's the case.

 

I think chris weber's depressed about life.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:50:44 - 1:50:57)

No, he's probably doing okay That's what i'm saying The guy I was thinking of was russell westbrook. Kevin Durant's old running. He might care because he's the most defensive about like I don't care what anyone says like I did every I did more than anyone ever expected of me, which is true

 

[RJ Bell] (1:50:57 - 1:50:59)

He was, you know, he plays the heart he played

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:50:59 - 1:51:02)

I mean, I would have drafted or not not well touted guy out of high school

 

[RJ Bell] (1:51:02 - 1:51:06)

Yeah, but I would make the case that he's played as hard as any superstar

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:51:06 - 1:51:13)

Since jordan, but did he did he use that intensity to play hard to help his team win the most? That was the way he thought they could win. Sure.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:51:14 - 1:51:18)

Yeah, I mean or that he could put up the most I think jay Which he thinks helps the team.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:51:18 - 1:51:41)

Yeah, it's not like one or the other doubles do help teams. Sure I mean, that's how I like he got the bummest deal of all though Somehow there was a rebound once and somehow it looked like it's like the guy you can see it now Bill simmons made this point what superstar meaning someone that was at the strata of winning an mvp or even close Has ever been a six-man and played with this much energy after?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:51:42 - 1:51:57)

Bill, you know bill walton was really injured and he did it for one year or whatever with the saudis I mean westbrook's jordan Huh, you never played as a six-man In fact, it was a question was First yes, i'm saying the opposite.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:51:58 - 1:51:58)

Okay.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:51:58 - 1:51:59)

Okay.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:51:59 - 1:52:04)

So like once he's gotten demoted to that level, okay It's like the ibd of tom brady being a backup quarter.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:52:05 - 1:52:25)

Gotcha Okay, derrick rose used to be an mvp and he ended up being a six-man very short. It was a very like long Yeah, it was a very short mvp run And he just got worse and worse over 10 years where he was lucky to be a lot of people didn't think he'd be In the league, so he wasn't he wasn't taking a back seat He was doing as well as he could and the question is was he playing like just as hard as he ever played I don't know right.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:52:25 - 1:52:47)

I mean, I know under tom tibideau that in general you play hard right and I'm, just saying westbrook has a lot to redeem him whatever negatives there are and i'm not talking personal I not that i've heard anything. I mean it seemed like the whole if anything you think the the confrontation with lebron That the way westbrook kind of stood up to him a little bit. You think you'd like that with your hate of lebron?

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:52:47 - 1:52:52)

I like that Good job westbrook.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:52:52 - 1:53:16)

So what do you think of the denver laker series? um I I like my ticket at denver minus one and a half. I feel like anthony davis should be A one I feel like he should have gotten the ball much more in the fourth quarter and I feel like they would have won He's shooting 65 for the series and I feel like lebron kind of felt like well, this is my time I'm gonna be the guy and that's why They scored 20 points in the fourth and ended up losing the game

 

[RJ Bell] (1:53:16 - 1:53:24)

So this is a year from anthony davis probably as good if not better than we would have ever expected post The the bubble.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:53:24 - 1:53:35)

Yeah, and I think part of his personality is he doesn't mind or he might even like taking a backseat Yeah, he can play hard for three quarters, but he's the most talented player on that team Offensively and defensively.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:53:35 - 1:53:49)

Well most talented Today. Yeah. Yeah.

 

Yeah, not historically, you know, it's different. Is that that's interesting Does a player's talent is that what it's like jordan's not talented anymore? Is is that the way that it is or is it?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:53:50 - 1:53:59)

Is it I guess it talents depreciate or or yeah people say like i'm as good, you know for 30 minutes as I ever was but I can't do it for 40 minutes.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:54:00 - 1:54:22)

We don't want to hear about your sex life Speaking speaking, that's good speaking of that this jordan story. Did it make the rounds big? Uh, so apparently he came out saying he he when he was with the uh, What was it the wizards it was washington.

 

I can't remember the bullets or um that he was sleeping with I think five to seven women a day.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:54:22 - 1:54:36)

I I saw that on instagram. I didn't even think it was real He said that at least one of them is in the nba now at least one of my illegitimate children's in the nba Is that is that all true because I saw a flash too, but I didn't see the whole story I didn't see I didn't see that.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:54:36 - 1:54:38)

Was that what did you see that?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:54:39 - 1:54:50)

I saw I saw it on instagram. So if you go to google news, it's not this turned out to be a fake post Oh, okay Wow, he was recently divorced.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:54:50 - 1:54:55)

I mean he was an older gentleman at that point too. That would have been impressive Younger than you.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:54:56 - 1:55:21)

Yeah What are you telling us? I'm telling you it's been a long time since uh, More than twice in one day would be uh overkill for me Yeah, um Can we can we get the secure? Uh, the f f f.

 

What is the fa fec? What is it with the fcc fcc needs to come here and shut you down? All right any now so you got about 20 minutes of talk in here coming up.

 

Is there anything in hindsight?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:55:22 - 1:55:39)

That you missed that you want to talk about last point here Um, I would like to raise the question other people have said this I mentioned this Is nicole jokic the best player since michael jordan like what else does he have to do? So this is more anti lebron I would people will say that's anti kobe.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:55:39 - 1:56:19)

That's anti Clearly Who's that? Is there any debate the best player? Let's say let's set aside this debate.

 

How many people would say lebron hasn't been the best player of the century hardly anyone People i'm not alone like no it's gonna be There's a there's probably almost close to 50 to think he's better in jordan, which is insanity I'll give you one that is sort of similar style of player at least a similar similar position Tim duncan was better than nicole jokic I disagree. He couldn't shoot from three like there's like forget.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:56:19 - 1:56:25)

I mean back then his accomplishments were I mean He won five championships. So jokic has won one. I would make the case that that and defensively is better.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:56:26 - 1:57:26)

I would make the case that That duncan was an amazing team player Uh, so if you want to say his contribution to the team and winning maybe maybe probably But if it's a who's the better player Now you might say well, let's define player as the team which I would like to but most people don't do that Right. So if we just said on the court what he's doing no consideration for locker room stuff. Nothing He's bad in the locker room, it's just duncan was a I mean we've seen post duncan how bad pops had it right he had a locker room sheriff there with duncan being his Enforcer in a way by example in the locker room that makes him I think above but on the court if all you did was watch the tape.

 

I don't think so I mean, I don't know how many I mean you watch much. That's all a lot of tim duncan Yeah, i'm talking about i'm talking about uh, jokic. Yeah.

 

Yeah, I watch plenty. What do you think mcken? I I I mean

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:57:26 - 1:57:45)

Robert ory said hakim eladjuan quote was 20 times better than duncan and I understand what he's saying like just Skill for skill there was so much that eladjuan could do Jokic can do all those things as far as post game and fadeaways and he can shoot from three like it's like It's just one sentence, but it completely changes how the defense has to respect you

 

[RJ Bell] (1:57:45 - 1:57:51)

I think I think when you say his main differentiator is is that he's a point forward in a way that his ability to be

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:57:51 - 1:57:54)

Yeah, he's a kim eladjuan with jason kidd skills.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:57:54 - 1:58:13)

So career career comparison, uh, duncan 19 points per game jokic 20.9 Duncan 10.8 rebounds jokic 10.7. He's also a late assists though duncan three jokic 6.9 Yeah, but what's been what's been jokic the points per game the last three or four years during his his main run?

 

[AJ Hoffman] (1:58:13 - 1:58:30)

Because like you said he is he was picked in the second round Yeah, he wasn't even starting over nurkich when he when he first started well last this year 26.4 last year 24.5 27.1 26.4 and duncan had some years at the end where he wasn't averaging his own numbers The last four years were monster though.

 

[RJ Bell] (1:58:30 - 1:59:59)

Duncan. Listen, he retired He could have played another year or two because I mean if you remember when I I think I don't know how many years Duncan had after when they lost I know the year after they beat the heat when they lost the year before I don't know how many years he played after that played two more years. Okay.

 

Well remember that so it would have been three years At the end of the three seasons before is the last possession in that game that went over time in game six And I think in game seven if I remember they went to duncan in the post To win it. I mean and this is at the very end. This is quiet emerged to some degree parker Ginobili, so I mean he was the and he missed a little bunny.

 

I still remember this shot But I remember him slamming the slam in his bench afterwards. I I would put duncan above kobe myself I mean, there's a kobe mob out there now So, you know, but I I listen I like if you want to be greatest all time you have to die That really helps your standing. No, but but I think I mean I think what we've seen in a way if you think in contrast to lebron again Kobe was a late.

 

I mean listen there certainly was a time that he was looking to get traded It was a short period of time and in the end He never did demand out and he was a laker for life and those out laker fans take that seriously Like magic not going anywhere, you know, I mean obviously it was a different situation with magic But plus kobe is the closest Effect similar jordan.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:59:59 - 2:00:15)

So like jordan a files like kevin durant will be like well kevin Kobe bryant's the second best ever because he was the most like jordan So therefore he's the second best ever who says that kevin durant and a lot a lot of like NBA heads think kobe bryant's the second I think I don't I don't personally think it's even close

 

[RJ Bell] (2:00:15 - 2:02:18)

But a lot of it has to do with the jordan thing like exactly you ever see that video of them lined up side by side Like the exact same shots and manners see a lesser version seems like that would diminish you Like it seemed like you wouldn't want to be but for everything that he accomplished five championships You know the closest thing looking but like to jordan that we come on when you say the five champions. Yeah, exactly So like he wasn't even the best player on half of those three of them.

 

Yeah I mean you could make the case the last title it was close Because shack was getting a little slowed down I mean shack was But then he didn't win again until they brought in pal Which is fine. Yes. Everyone needs somebody.

 

Yeah, I mean apparently that trade was like shady as in like how in the heck did they? Get him for what they did But listen kobe's top five. I mean, so what are we debating?

 

I'll tell you this The distance between as much as of a michael fan as I am and i'm gonna say this once a year I was there. All right, and I hated the bulls at the time and You never felt like you had it. I mean in the end it was like you were gonna get beat it was like There's been tom brady didn't have that.

 

He did not have that It was like jordan was like when I still remember when when uh, he came back said i'm back And then against orlando when he got stripped from behind Uh, you were just looking at the tv going what the hell just happened like jordan didn't perform at the end of a game And it was almost like you couldn't believe it and No one's like that now. It's not even close so But my point would be oh, i'm sorry gonna make your point and then i'll finish. Oh, I thought you were gonna say something No, okay is The distance between michael and who's number two On the 10 year high height.

 

Let's say I think the distance between lebron as a career And number two is probably comparable. I mean if it wasn't for kareem, yeah kareem's the other one that played 20 years Yeah, but if it wasn't for kareem finals mvp at 38.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:02:18 - 2:02:23)

Yeah. Yeah I mean who's next after that harley? I mean what malone maybe tim duncan?

 

[RJ Bell] (2:02:23 - 2:02:45)

I mean and he was not at 38 what lebron and kareem were so yeah, that's my point is At this point we got to give lebron his dude for longevity and in the aggregation of performance It's unmatched. I mean and I think michael was unmatched for his height Did you see the game two final shot from lebron?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:02:45 - 2:02:55)

It was very jordan-esque except he missed it He like got a little push off got a clear space 10 seconds to go in the game wide open Couldn't ask for a better shot, but he's not michael jordan. Michael jordan makes that shot.

 

[RJ Bell] (2:02:55 - 2:04:27)

I don't care if he's 50 Yeah, I mean I tell you this People will say the bulls and all or i'm sorry the bullets slash wizards wasn't a good time He played like 66 games or whatever the first year of the two Last year he played he was like what 41 or played 82 games And put up over 20 points a game I mean anyone can play 82 games at that. I mean it was like he he was an iron man and You know, there's a reason that he sleeps with five to seven women. Oh wait that Allegedly, all right, so we're gonna throw to the conversation that won't be as interesting but could be could be who knows I think it'll be good though.

 

It'll be good for sure and fez already left because he was feeling sick so we just won't even have we'll just um Just have silence at the end of all this because fez won't take us out. We'll be back next week What day we thinking to go next week? Normal day.

 

Yeah, what is that though? What is a normal day? Listen stay on your toes.

 

This will be a good example if you haven't subscribed Subscribe to the podcast on any platform you use it's free On to the nba discussion. Let's talk nba playoffs with our nba insider mckenzie rivers and mac after two games in most of these series What's been the biggest thing that's jumped out to you? Is it the home teams getting out to such an incredible start?

 

Or is it certain teams that have built up the lead like the timberwolves going 2-0 over the suns nicks 2-0 over the sixers What's jumped out to mckenzie rivers?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:04:27 - 2:05:38)

Well, darvin ham said it best when they lost a Brutal game as the road team like they were calling it one way in the regular season I don't understand why they're not calling it in the playoffs Uh, there's a reason why these games have gone under under under 11 unders after this mavs game goes under And only three overs in the first round And it's really not that free throws have gone down like if you look at the average free throws per game They're pretty much where they were But the defense they've been fouling a lot more or at least they've been hitting a lot more. It's been a lot more intense um Yeah, and it's it's just been crazy in the first round.

 

We're looking at before factoring in uh this mavericks game um Wow 11 points per game under um, so yeah, the home teams keep winning I I wonder That's gonna reverse itself or if that's something that These this defensive intensity with the crowd going wild is something that will sustain but uh, yeah That's that's been my i've just been kicking myself because the very first game I made my big bet on the under And I felt so smart and I haven't been under since and they've it's just been the right thing to go I would never bend over in the nba playoffs This is gonna be nine out of ten years if you're bending unders every single game, you're profitable

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:05:38 - 2:05:42)

Well, do you think the books are over adjusting too much now?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:05:42 - 2:06:25)

I mean i'm looking at the lines here for I mean tomorrow heat celtics 202 and a half Uh coming up on thursday Such a big adjustment think about it in that regular season when the heat and the celtics played The average total was 216. That's what kept me off. Wow of playing the 209 under i'm like, okay Well, I mean they've made a seven point adjustment.

 

That's you know, right in line with what's happened historically looking at the playoffs in the regular season Uh now they've just chopped off another seven points so I can't play in under in game twos historically Most games Game ones game sixes game sevens, especially lean to the under but game twos are the rare occasion I think some because of the some some of the adjustments the coaches make actually tend to the over so i'm gonna lay I'm, just gonna kick myself when that goes under too, I guess.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:06:25 - 2:06:33)

Yeah, we're seeing it calves magic What was the total that you bet under in game one 207 and a half? It's now 198 and a half for game three

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:06:33 - 2:06:50)

Yeah, and now the calves have played seven straight playoff games where they've gone at least 15 points under The expected total, um, those are two of the top five slowest pace teams in the league something to keep an eye on and um Yeah, i'm not i'm not betting the over in that one that's for sure for from a

 

[RJ Bell] (2:06:51 - 2:07:09)

From a same game parlay perspective hear me out fellas hear me out Because I know fez is mckenzie fez is giving me like a dirty look right now because i'm talking about same game parlays but In we know that from when we did the football same game parlay pods negative correlations Tend to maximize payouts

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:07:10 - 2:07:16)

What about the idea of going with? like star players over points

 

[RJ Bell] (2:07:17 - 2:07:33)

but under for the game total because What are we seeing in these playoffs a guy like damian lewis scoring 35 points the game going under, you know Embiid and maxi combining for 70 something points the game going under so it's like that's that star players are scoring a ton of points

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:07:33 - 2:07:39)

But the full game's going under because no one else is contributing It's like it's a hero ball here in the playoffs.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:07:39 - 2:08:06)

Does that make sense? Oh, it makes perfect sense and it's another reason why home teams have done really well is that uh guys like josh hart You don't expect to shoot 50 from three guys like mcbride from nixon Expected to make 50 of their threes but at home You do a lot better some of these uh role players on the road teams have not shown up at all Uh, the sun's lost grace and alan tonight. So let's see.

 

It's even more dark for them um So I don't like him Like dookie why does he trip the guy?

 

[RJ Bell] (2:08:06 - 2:08:26)

He's a dirty player because he won because one time he tripped the guy You know, I was just it was more than one time I was just watching one of his games and like he almost injured a guy like in the playoffs and then he got injured and I was like uh I don't I don't think that's good for team chemistry to have You know a thug like that out there and the thing with the home home

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:08:27 - 2:08:59)

Winners is we always talk about that. Um zig zig zag spot. Well, actually the last five years it's done pretty well It's slightly above 50 if you're just betting the game, but on offense they've scored less than expected One point and on defense they've actually allowed for fewer points than expected.

 

So the ats margin you see plus three It's not that it's not that crucial but both offensively and defensively teams in that must win spot down oh two at home Have done those games have gone under you know by five points you added up So do we like those situations 76ers nix is at 204?

 

[RJ Bell] (2:09:00 - 2:09:02)

Nuggets lakers is at 215 and a half.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:09:02 - 2:10:08)

I like my best bet is nix under 100 and a half team total. Oh nix team total you're saying because I think the sixers are a better team I think they as imbued said they should be up to well They were in a perfect spot Uh, let that game slip away and it really had a lot to do with guys like devin chenzo Guys like josh hart just hitting threes that you're gonna allow them to take nick nurse is not gonna lose any sleep Allowing josh hard to take a three at the end of the shot clock. I don't think that carries over Sixers have been a lot better historically or this season at home eighth best in the league in home games only 12 best on the road Uh, and I think they're all in I think they they have to win it I think the league got a lot of scuff even from the great lebron james about the non calls that they made I feel like they're gonna maybe be a little bit Lenient more lenient on the sixers defenders. Let them hit a little bit more And it's gonna be a it's gonna be a rough one for the new york team who has the slowest pace in the league So I like that.

 

Uh, yeah, I like the sixers to win I might bet play it money line, but I think the best bet Uh coming up for these game threes is under 100 and a half for the new york knicks Does it concern you a little bit and this is something that aj and I have talked about on sov Uh, jaylen brunson's been terrible.

 

[RJ Bell] (2:10:08 - 2:10:19)

Yeah for the first two games of the series So if in game three jaylen brunson shows up and plays a jaylen brunson like normal game Does that concern you because it certainly boosts the knicks up tremendously?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:10:20 - 2:10:30)

oh, yeah, and it can happen and I expect him to play better, but I think it's more about the schemes. I feel like they're they're doing what they So him being horrible is because of what philly's doing.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:10:30 - 2:10:30)

Yes.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:10:30 - 2:10:41)

Yeah, he was what eight of 29 Yeah, he's not he's not going to be that bad But they're also not going to make 50 of their threes went from non-brunson players Sure are the lakers done did that blowing the 20 point lead?

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:10:41 - 2:10:43)

Was that just too much of a punch in the gut?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:10:44 - 2:11:58)

I bet that the lakers were done before the series started. I got minus one and a half Uh, which is now minus 330 plus minus 140 now. It's minus 330 so I wish it was more I wish it was guaranteed because it was two scary games and nick the lakers had 12 15 point leads in the first half brought it up to 20 I just feel like they're I don't know.

 

Maybe i'm just a lebron james hater and I am you know If all other people will accuse me of that i'm not going to deny it i've been accused of it too. It's like Anthony davis was amazing 14 for 16 through three quarters. He gets a turn style defensively The greatest defensive player in the world arguably, uh, yeah We'll lose to maybe the greatest basketball player since michael jordan nicole yokich Uh, he was just amazing in the fourth quarter But offensively lebron was like let me get my stats And they scored 20 points and they blew it and they blew a big lead and people were saying Oh, he played finally skip bayless said finally he played an amazing fourth quarter.

 

I did not see it that way He was playing hero ball. It was not sustainable and that's why the nuggets Time after time after time we'll get back into the game because they're just going to take bad shots Which leads to runouts on the other end the when lebron decides to do his thing and get his stats It's just bad basketball and then they lose, you know, it's over and over i've seen Rare game.

 

[RJ Bell] (2:11:58 - 2:11:59)

I actually watch so directionally.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:11:59 - 2:12:08)

I agree with you a hundred percent but you can't deny the fact that Lebron, whatever you're gonna say I can't deny it and I will deny it.

 

[RJ Bell] (2:12:08 - 2:12:18)

I don't think you can deny it Lebron took one marginal three that he made and they took a terrible three and he made that one so What you're saying is correct.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:12:18 - 2:12:30)

He played hero ball for 20 points in the quarter They didn't score more than that And we needed to not give up so many runouts on the other end They needed to win the game to win the game But i'm saying he made a poor decision that second three.

 

[RJ Bell] (2:12:30 - 2:13:04)

I think he makes like 22 And it went in so I can't say lebron played didn't play I don't understand I don't understand your point because he made a tough three which you say was a bad decision. I won't speculate That's why he didn't play a bad quarter It would be like a bowler that barely caught the the the head pin and somehow kicked off the sideboard and obliterated all the other pins It's like I can't say well that bowler sucked In in his performance because he bowled a two. He basically lebron in my opinion bowled a 259 In the fourth quarter, but they scored 20 points.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:13:05 - 2:15:08)

That's an 80 point rate They completely changed their offense a hundred percent from what they've been doing beating anthony davis Who had one of the more amazing games in his playoff career? That's why he's fourth all time in playoff efficiency rating. He's an amazing player He gets one shot in the fourth because yeah, lebron hit a couple of tough threes But most of the time they're waiting the shot clock down.

 

They're dribbling on the outside He's going to either drive to the paint or take a bad shot He's made a bunch of bad shots. But at the end of the day you add it all up in your abacus It's 20 points Not very good. Well, we're gonna back terrible We're gonna have to agree to disagree because the couple times the lebron Got gassed and took a couple possessions off the other lakers did nothing and they like you said they just like Right, but lebron is the point guard.

 

He's supposedly the greatest facilitator of all time. He can decide like Has michael jory never stood in the corner and be like man, my team really doesn't have it today No, that's not what you do as the great one that you were supposed to be you dictate every possession How am I gonna and then it feeds on to the next possession if anthony davis gets an and one he's gonna he's gonna be Draw more attention and someone else is going to be open the next play They didn't do that If the refs had just called fouls on the two plays that were marginal where it got knocked to the ground with Which maybe it was fouled.

 

Maybe it wasn't maybe it was a regular season foul The narrative totally changes the lakers win by three and lebron's the greatest All right, he lost 10 straight games in a row And we're gonna say the team that had the number one free throw disparity ever the last two seasons Should have won one game out of 10 because of bad referee calls Like what what's even the upshot there wouldn't have been a bad call could have gone either way On those plays it got knocked down Okay, so they lost 10 straight games in a row and i'm telling you This is why they lose 10 straight games in a row because the nuggets will always play effective offense nicole jokic Well, I mean, he didn't even touch the ball the last two minutes because he was setting screens and jamal Murray was playing they're playing team basketball They're always gonna find the effective shot the lakers won't the lakers will have sometimes effective shots Sometimes they'll get breakouts Sometimes they'll get hot from three But they play hero ball or anthony davis gets the basketballs and or it never works dovetails together And that's why they lose 10 games in a row to a team that does everything the opposite of what I just said

 

[RJ Bell] (2:15:08 - 2:15:34)

Well, I think there'll be any adjustment in game three. Like if we look at from a from a prop perspective Anthony davis 25 and a half is his point total lebron's the same thing 25 and a half. I mean I certainly Don't want a piece of lebron because I just always think lebron's numbers are Inflated but if there is any adjustment to be made I would think It's anthony davis scoring, right?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:15:34 - 2:16:20)

You would think that's what that's what was working. That's how they got a 20 point lead Anthony davis is shooting like 65 in this series. Um Here's the one thing I don't like about the player props you're right 25 and a half was their number was their number last Games, they've both gone over both lebron and ad both of the first two games But the total in the first game was 227 and they both went over it was close It was a close game the game went under game two The game goes far under goes 24 points under and they both go over And now they chop off another seven points from that total from 223 to 216 And their props are still 25 and a half each. So it just I mean, they're gonna play 45 minutes if they have to yeah It it seems like it should go down if the overall scoring supposed to be 15 points less than we expected for game one Plop then the prop should be you would think a point or two and you don't get that because of the premium of what you're

 

[RJ Bell] (2:16:20 - 2:16:41)

Talking about the prop I liked is that the game's basically a pick-em So I bet the lakers to win the race to 15 and to 20 points Because it's pricing they're pricing that prop based upon a normal pick-em type game But they're not pricing it based upon the first half line, which has the lakers A two-point favorite because of the zigzag 02 home team coming home makes sense

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:16:41 - 2:16:53)

So so race to 10 right now in the first quarter is lakers 1 minus 115 nuggets minus 110 Race to 15 same thing lakers minus 115 nuggets minus uh 110

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:16:53 - 2:17:08)

So the lakers are 2 and 0 on that prop lakers are 2 and 0 in the first half They've started out the game amazingly hot and they shot like 46 from 3 in the last game the nuggets shot 20 I feel like that might regress to the mean I feel like the nuggets are going to be very aware that the lakers got off to these hot starts

 

[RJ Bell] (2:17:08 - 2:17:14)

And they might prevent it how come they're dealing with a minus A 25 cent straddle on all these lines.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:17:14 - 2:17:15)

This is because they're offering a neither.

 

[RJ Bell] (2:17:15 - 2:17:40)

This is either If they offer a neither it should be it should be less than 20 cents and neither It's uh, if they offer like neither them, that's that's a three-way line Meaning I should get paid more on the two-way line now. I know race to 15 in the first quarter I mean, there's no chance nuggets minus 110 lakers minus 115 uh, and the neither is plus 10 000.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:17:40 - 2:17:49)

Yeah, let's see if that's ever happened in nba playoff in the first quarter. I'll tell you what though Oh, i'm sure it has back back when they were 2002 but you know what though

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:17:50 - 2:18:00)

You can bet this in every single quarter and in game one of the maverick series in the it Well, actually neither that would be different i'm saying the maverick scored eight points in the second quarter

 

[RJ Bell] (2:18:00 - 2:20:04)

Sure, but the other team gets 20, but the other team exactly Yeah, I don't think it would ever happen where neither team would score 15 in the quarter i'm sure it has happened like in a especially like probably in a fourth quarter where it's like a 1994 when it was like a fist fight in the paint. Well, there was there were 69 68 final scores I'm old enough to remember, you know, just craziness. Yeah I do like that though lakers race to race to 10 or race.

 

I don't want to lay minus 115 I mean I laid minus 105 and minus 110 but like I'm sure you can shop around I see the minus one Yeah, I see the minus 115 is the bridge too far. That's like like somewhere along the line These team totals stopped getting priced at minus 110 in each direction and they started being minus 115 The same with the nerfy your fees and baseball and people don't realize It's like really easy to win minus 105 by the way coast properties in vegas here Deal minus 105 day of the game on sides. So no reason if everyone's dealing the same number Head to the uh to the coast properties.

 

I have have you guys seen any advertisement of that? I've not seen one I haven't seen so much and with good limits also So think about that. There's people betting five thousand three thousand dollars on a side Um, let's assume you're betting two thousand dollars.

 

So you're risking twenty two hundred you risk twenty one hundred So, you know, you're you're you're you're not saving a hundred because half the time you get your money back You're saving 50 bucks just by walking across the street because coast properties are everywhere downtown Um at the fremont has it has a coast property. It's at it. It's at orleans.

 

It's really a gold coast. It's all over the place Uh updated series price for that nuggets lakers series nuggets minus 1100 lakers plus 700 On the comeback mckenzie think about that minus 1100 plus 700. Let's look at that straddle That's that's just that's just like ski mask stealing.

 

It just drives me crazy It's like when the novig should be minus 950 plus 950 or something like it mckenzie likes the sixers Uh over the knicks the sixers to come back and win the series is plus 350. Is that intriguing mckenzie? Um, they're gonna be favored in both two home games.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:20:04 - 2:20:17)

I feel like I feel like it's gonna be I feel like yeah I feel like that's live. I'm, not sure if uh betting at each game because A lot of things could happen where they it suddenly becomes a dead bet immediately get hurt more or if they lose game three It's it's over.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:20:17 - 2:20:24)

Yeah That's a fair point. But if they even up the series, then they might be favored It's interesting.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:20:24 - 2:20:32)

They were favored to start the series at some spots It was like minus one and then it got that down then it got that down to pick them But in a seven game it won't be favored because

 

[RJ Bell] (2:20:34 - 2:20:39)

Because if you take it if you extrapolate to three three, the knicks are certainly going to be favored in game seven

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:20:39 - 2:20:42)

Yeah, the home court advantage is more important in every game series sons plus

 

[RJ Bell] (2:20:42 - 2:20:51)

330 to come back and defeat the timberwolves as much as I before the series started I was like I like the sons in this series Seeing the way that the first two games have played out.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:20:51 - 2:21:38)

I don't really want a part of that right now uh I like them in game three. It's three and a half. I feel like I feel like that's a bet for me I feel like they're gonna cover they tied up the nugget series when they were down Oh two and both of those games, uh ended up being blowouts Watching that game tonight.

 

It was close all the way through a couple calls went their way and they really unraveled They really did not seem like a cohesive unit so, um my my hopes of them coming together as a championship team is just completely dashed like They could have won either of those games. I feel like but now I see with adversity They they seem to unravel. They don't seem to be a cohesive.

 

My friend pastrami Texted me he says minnesota has the best player on the court He was like 3 for 13. He's terrible. It's funny And and I said did durant get traded did I did they miss it?

 

[RJ Bell] (2:21:38 - 2:21:47)

So then I I get I get a text from him after game one. He's like ant man It's like is that his nickname anthony edwards ant man. Oh god.

 

Okay pastrami.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:21:47 - 2:21:47)

You're just yeah

 

[RJ Bell] (2:21:48 - 2:21:53)

Maybe he's just he's just being cute fest Yeah, he's not really a cute type of guy

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:21:54 - 2:22:19)

That's the thing I don't think the wolves played that well anthony especially in game two anthony edwards was bad Uh, what did he end up three for 12 and carl anthony towns has played like 40 minutes in this entire series He got he was a non-factor in game one when they subbed him out and he was in foul trouble all of all of this game game two um So that's those role players showing up at home Which is surprising to me that it would make that much of a difference in a playoff game Mike connelly was probably the best player on the court for the wolves tonight.

 

[RJ Bell] (2:22:19 - 2:22:34)

I like what mon connelly said Is that Guys the first time I made the conference finals. I was in the playoffs I had no idea how special this was and now i'm getting old guys So you guys got to help me out.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:22:34 - 2:22:45)

I'm not gonna give any more kicks at the can help me get there boys Yeah, the wolves have won two series in their entire franchise history It was both of the same year the kevin garnett mvp year when they made conference finals So it's a big deal for the city.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:22:45 - 2:23:00)

You could tell you could tell the crowd really really liked it All the uncertainty with their ownership and everything that's going on there it's just it's it's really bizarre Uh disney movie. Yeah, the uh bucks are minus 125 in this series over the pacers. Do we see yannis in game three?

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:23:02 - 2:23:15)

Uh, we were we were speculating I like what we did in the last dream pod where We're looking at the implied odds in the movement. It seemed like game four or game five was more likely Haven't seen anything to change my mind and they're not really in that precarious of a position.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:23:15 - 2:23:17)

Yeah I mean they they they're one one.

 

[RJ Bell] (2:23:17 - 2:23:44)

So it's it's not like it's desperation time If they lose game three, I would think that we would see yannis in game four Assuming he doesn't play in game three and you know what? Maybe that's the the mechanical parlay is pacers four and a half in in game three And then it's bucks in game four Although with yannis playing that line is not going to be plus four and a half. Yeah What would you say that line would be mckenzie with yannis playing?

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:23:44 - 2:24:02)

in We're gonna have the game is in indianapolis But we also are assuming that the pacers win game three So pacers are up two games to one And yannis is playing and yannis is playing game for his first game of the series I don't give him the full six points back because he might be uh, you know kind of gimpy.

 

[Mackenzie Rivers] (2:24:02 - 2:24:07)

So Bucks minus one give him five bucks minus one in indiana.

 

[AJ Hoffman] (2:24:07 - 2:24:29)

Yeah, that's interesting. Yeah That's interesting. Hi mckenzie good stuff So