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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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Stats Matter – A Guide to Handicapping the 2011 Bowl Games

By Marc Lawrence

 

It’s unanimous.  Smart handicappers alike agree on one thing – preparation is the key to success.  The better prepared you are the better chance you stand at succeeding.

With the 2011 College Bowl season now upon us, it’s time to get ready for the thirty-five games that await.  While a myriad of different techniques and approaches exist, one simple element is often overlooked and that is how a team is performing on the playing field ‘In The Stats’ (ITS) as they enter into its bowl game.  In other words, are they winning or losing that overall yardage on the playing field.

As handicappers we know better than most the scoreboard does not tell the entire story.  Like a doctor examining an MRI or an X-Ray, it’s critically important to look inside the patient and check out his vitals before rendering a diagnosis.

Listed below are noteworthy results of how the 70 bowl teams have fared ITS overall and most recently this season, along with other notes of significance…

 

Air Force 8-4 overall

Alabama 12-0 overall / held 7 foes to season low yards

Arizona St 6-6 overall

Arkansas 7-5 overall / 1-4 away

Arkansas St 9-3 overall / 6-0 L6

Auburn 5-7 overall

Baylor 10-2 overall

Boise St 11-1 overall / held 4 foes to season low yards

BYU 9-3 overall / 8-0 L8

 

California 8-4 overall / held 4 foes to season low yards

Cincinnati 6-5-1 overall / 1-3-1 L5

Clemson 10-3 overall / 2-3 L5

 

Florida 7-5 overall

Florida Intl 5-7 overall / 1-3 L4

Florida St 8-4 overall / held 6 foes to season low yards

 

Georgia 12-1 overall

Georgia Tech 8-4 overall / 2-4 L6

 

Houston 11-2 overall / 6-0 away

 

Illinois 9-3 overall / 1-2 L3

Iowa 6-6 overall / 1-3 L4

Iowa St 5-7 overall / 4-1 L5

 

Kansas St 3-9 overall / 0-5 L5

 

La Lafayette 6-6 overall / 0-3 L3

La Tech 7-5 overall / 4-1 L5

Louisville 7-5 overall / 1-3 L4

LSU 9-4 overall / held 5 foes to season low yards

 

Marshall 4-8 overall / 3-1 L4

Michigan 10-2 overall / 5-0 L5

Michigan St 10-3 overall / held 5 foes to season low yards

Mississippi St 7-5 overall

Missouri 8-4 overall

 

NC State 6-6 overall / 4-0 L4

Nebraska 7-5 overall / 1-3 L4

Nevada 10-2 overall / 8-0 L8

North Carolina 6-6 overall / 3-1 L4

Northern Illinois 8-5 overall / 4-0 L4

Notre Dame 7-5 overall / held 4 foes to season low yards

 

Ohio St 4-8 overall / 0-5 away

Ohio U 10-3 overall

Oklahoma 9-3 overall

Oklahoma St 10-2 overall

Oregon  11-2 overall

 

Penn St 8-4 overall

Pittsburgh 6-6 overall

Purdue 5-7 overall

 

Rutgers 7-5 overall

 

San Diego St 7-5 overall / 4-1 L5

SMU 7-5 overall

South Carolina 7-5 overall / 3-0 L3

Southern Miss 11-1-1 overall

Stanford 12-0 overall

 

TCU 7-5 overall

Temple 7-5 overall / 1-4 L5

Texas 8-4 overall / held 6 foes to season low yards

Texas A&M 10-2 overall / 7-0 L7

Toledo 10-2 overall / 7-0 L7

Tulsa 8-4 overall / 7-1 L8

 

UCLA 5-8 overall

Utah 4-8 overall / 0-4 L4

Utah St 10-2 overall

 

Vanderbilt 6-6 overall

Virginia 8-3-1 overall

Virginia Tech 9-4 overall

 

Wake Forest 5-7 overall / 1-6 L7

Washington 5-7 overall / 1-3 L4

West Virginia 9-2-1 overall

Western Michigan 7-5 overall

Wisconsin 10-3 overall / 1-2 L3

Wyoming 5-7 overall / 3-1 L4

 

Given the fact that teams who outgain their opponent win the game better than 80% of the time, and straight-up winners in bowl games being 570-95-10 ATS - including 32-3 last season - since 1980, it’s crucial to your success when evaluating a team’s chance of winning the yardage wars.

Just another slant when it comes to handicapping the bowl contests.  Add it to your arsenal and enjoy the games!

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