With the first round of the NBA playoffs upon us, it is important to take a look at how important game #1 actually is. When comparing the NBA, MLB and NHL; the NBA seems to have the most direct correlation on how a team does in the first game of a seven game series in comparision to other sports afte winning game #1. Interesting to note that a visiting team that steals a game #1 on the road is only 2-12 in game #2.
round site Game 2 rec. series rec.
Prelim all 36-20 (.643) 44-12 (.786)
Prelim H 34-6 (.850) 37-3 (.925)
Prelim V 2-14 (.125) 7-9 (.438)
In baseball, once the series is at seven games, a visiting team who takes game #1 actually is 45.5% to win the second game, while in the NHL, they are close to 40%.
Rest of the NBA playoffs by round and overall:
round site Game 2 rec. series rec.
all all 223-170 (.567) 310-83 (.789)
all H 198-91 (.685) 251-38 (.869)
all V 25-79 (.240) 59-45 (.567)
Finals all 31-32 (.492) 46-17 (.730)
Finals H 28-19 (.596) 38-9 (.809)
Finals V 3-13 (.188) 8-8 (.500)
Semis all 60-46 (.566) 85-21 (.802)
Semis H 49-24 (.671) 62-11 (.849)
Semis V 11-22 (.333) 23-10 (.697)
Qtrs all 96-72 (.571) 135-33 (.804)
Qtrs H 87-42 (.674) 114-15 (.884)
Qtrs V 9-30 (.231) 21-18 (.538)
As each series advances we can look at some possible angles based on historical facts on the NBA playoffs. For example, a few years back when the Celtics were up 2-0 on the Lakers I found Teams up 2-0 in the NBA, after winning the first 2 at home, are 170-10 94.4 % all time in 7 game series. Bookmaker had a series bet with the Celtics at -140. Even though I will never be teaching math at MIT, if you were told you have a 94.4% chance to win with a historicaly record of 170-10, how do you not lay -140?
So good luck on your first round wagers and we will report back once the first games are completed.
Regards,
Johnny Detroit, Co-Founder and Vice-President
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