THE 4 SEASONS OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

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THE 4 SEASONS OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

Handicapping Baseball can be very taxing indeed and a lot of bettors will fall to the wayside before the season is over. Many already have and the next six weeks or so will prove to be costly to a good portion of of the Baseball Betting Community. It is the perception of most that lines get sharper during the summer months and to some extent that is correct. But is does make a difference in how you define Sharper and it does make a difference in how you react to what we are going to see. Vegas Oddsmakers generally combine two factors to determine what line they are going to post for baseball contests. The number 1 factor is the starting pitcher and by far that is the prImary one in determing who is going to be favored and by how much. The second factor is the strength of the teams competing and the venue at which they will play. They use these line determiners because they know that is how the majority of bettors decide how they are going to bet. Finding a way to shoot around these is the job of a handicapper and gaining the advantage in doing so is why it is imperative to look at the game as a whole and not just with the popular approach.

The Mid Relievers
There is a strong correlation between the strength of a team's Bullpen and how well they do both in the standings, and in the money made playing them. When I talk about the Pens, I am not talking about who has the best closer, although that does come into play. The average starting pitcher rarely gets past the sixth inning. The average closer rarely gets past 2/3 of an inning. The fact is, as the season progresses, the starting thrower becomes less and less important and from about May 20th until the end of the season, starters will average just under 2/3 of an inning less than previous games. That is based on the last 7 years and that is a misconception to many. On average we can expect the guy who throws the first pitch to last about 5.2 innings meaning 1 out short of 6. In addition, we can expect him to leave the game more times than not, with runners in scoring position and usually with less than 2 outs. That is why the mid-line throwers are so important. Here is some info from a selected year.

Top 6 Money Teams of 2006
Minnesota
Oakland
New York Mets
Detroit
Kansas City
San Diego


The Top 5 Bullpens of 2006
Minnesota
New York Mets
San Diego
Detroit
Oakland


These are listed in order as you can see, the Top 5 Bullpen's also comprised the Top 5 Money Teams. The only excpetion was KC who won some huge moneyline plays late in the year. Similar results can be found in previous years. So far this year, of the Top 5 Bullpens, 3 of those teams rank in the Top 5 Moneymakers, with KC at #2, Toronto at #3, and Boston at #5. At this time of the season it is easier to determine who has it, who does not, and who is going to have it. There are enough games to make reasonable betting decisions and managers have enough data to make good one's as well. In most cases, I would rather have a mediocre starter and a good Pen, than the opposite. That works out very well since that is the exact opposite of the way Vegas would like us to think. Certainly a great starting thrower and a good Pen also opens up good runline opps. As the Dog Days of Summer approach this reasoning is going to become more effective and more predicable. The best pitcher in the league can have a bad outing, the worst one can have a good one, bullpens generally remain fairly consistant.

The Mindset of Teams
We are still in a situation where all teams feel that they can compete for the playoffs and that is evidenced by the recent play of the Royals and Rangers. Even though it is obvious to most of us that this is not true, nobody is giving up yet and that does give us some good opps. Every team can still be a pain in the ass to another one. There are many ways to determine when a team is going to go on a run and recent play is one of those and probably the best way. However, deciding how to go about this is sometimes a liability to bettors because many are not working with the right kind of stats. I am going to have a separate article on this subject soon but for now let me just say that looking into stats is better than just taking them as they are presented. I personally throw out the best and worst game over a 7 game span for pitchers, and the best and worst game over a 10 game span for teams. Scoring 45 times over a 10 game span looks impressive but not when 15 were plated in one game. There are certain situations that never change including some throwers not being able to hold their own on the road. LAA's Eric Santana a few years ago is certainly one of those and there are many more.

Now Through the Allstar Break
As we come closer to June 1st, Managers are going to manage more. How many times this year have we seen starting pitchers stay in just a bit too long and cause their team to suffer a loss. That is not going to happen nearly as much as managers and pitching coaches will be quicker to jerk the jerk and they will be able to make better decisions based on their better conception of who can and who can't. That is going to lead to more UNDERS and that is going to lead to more closer games. That is specifically true with teams that have a good mid-line throwing squad and these squads are going be in the money more ties than not. Eventually Vegas will catch up with this fact and I am not saying that they don't already know this, what I am saying is that most bettors do not and they are not going to make their move until they need to. Sportsbooks have been raking money in over the last 7 days because bettors are not reacting to what is going on yet. We are entering the second season now and I will have more about the 3rd and 4th and what to expect coming soon..

  • After posting 11 plays a on 5/13 "little over kill" I made it out with 5 out of eleven "UGLY and STUPID" my arch enemies. 5/12 (ten for eleven). 5/15 - (six for seven).I am making one play today 5/16 and its a real keeper Reds -127

    4.5 units Thanx for your knowledge and insight.

  • These are plays I have made your insight has been useful Greg Isaiha I hope we can continue to network.

    1 unit =1k.

     Cleveland over   May, 11>  (2 units)      winnner

      Atlanta +190      May, 11>   (2 units)     winner

      Atlanta under     May  11>   (3 units)     loser

     Tampa Bay over May  12>   (2 units)     winner

       Philly -120        May   12>   (4units)      winner

     Cleveland over   May  12>   (4units)      winner

     Toronto -150     May   12>    (6units)      winner

    Toronto to under May   12>   (2units)      winner

    Giants -137         May   12>   (1.5 units) winner

    stellar day at the office. Thank you Lord.

  • 5/12 And bingo was his name 3 for 3 $3420.00

    I think its prudent to finish with some Giants at -134 for  a unit.and a half. Cain will be throwing nasty stuff tontight and the Giants smell blue blood. I think a better surmise of the odds would be San Fransisco minus170. If you throw in the Dodger factor. Lets face it .They are the Cain and Able of the West coast.No pun intended.The Giants may be hot on their heels in two weeks.Go figure. Lets finish strong with this viable opportunity Taking the Giants for 1.5-2 units.

    Get some!

  • shake and bake you the man!!!!

  • Dude you have got to be careful on the over unders.

    otherwise you should of had a stellar day.i hope you pressed at least five units to tha Atl and follwed your Clev forecast.Thanks for the play dude. I am riding the Phillies like zoro.2 units "one dime".Please retort by 3 pacific.

  • Yes Isaiah i agree but if you look at Lowes nubers against the Mets show that he is formidable,solid.and,Santana has had a hard time with Atlanta.Plus an unwritten variable is to expect pitching duals to secrete the lack of run production  hormone in teams especially National League. Cardinals at Cubs exempt. I threw a unit on Atl to the under and three on the under.Now its just a matter one or two timely hits and or defensive mistakes all and all its another day and anything can happen.I am also loving the over in Cleveland any comments on Cleveland Please.

  • Woe! This guy has balls of steal. I like it. It's a coin toss at two to one odds. Santana could go down. The elements are there. I hope your playing with the casinos money. It makes sense if you have some risk capitol. I would like to thank Greg for his insight on the greatest game ever played. Your philosophy is rock solid. It is a game where seasons change within constantly. And, I have been making money consistantly from baseball for years thanks to mentors like you. Not on the sprint but in the marathon. I like the way you take basesball apart from the inside out. From my experience it is the best way to be consistent. Thanx Again. P.S. BUZZ KILL...Ride the Dodgers to lose. Ride them like Zoro 4 atleast a month. 65%-72%

    return on every ten plays.Blue flu is a pandemic. Thanx Manny.Sorry Dodger fans.

  • Derruck Lowe vs Santana tonite. Tight bull pens great starting pitching do not be afraid of all the hot bats and the 7 line.Jump at the chance even better great buy Atlanta +190 for at least one third of your bank and pad it with a under play of twice that.Strong under.Lowe is a real competitor.And will rise to the competition.First half pitcher extrordinary. Atlanta to the under.great buy.Flealess dog.Get some.

  • Greg This guy, Jason james, is spamming your blog with bs.

    Please delete his replies

  • Thanks, Greg.

  • Yes Straguzzi, it was something I actually posted here at pregame forum and reworked it for this year with current stats on the teams that are doing well verses their Pens. I just got blogged up so I thought I would throw something out that was topical. I am going to be talking about Post-Allstar Break and beyond in another article soon. There are similar numbers for just about any year you can find so I just left the 2006 stats as they were.

  • Good article Greg. Was this written last year. The article lists Top 6 Money Teams & Bullpens of 2006

  • This is great, I do remember these next few weeks being times where favorites usually hit and bad pitchers up to this point continue to struggle and pitchers who have pitched well continue to do so. . .