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An NBA Week Begins, Pt 15: NBA RoundUp for 1/31

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An NBA Week Begins, Pt 15: NBA RoundUp for 1/31

Sun, Jan 30 2011 2:48 PM
Opener:

Things got moving in a better direction last week (won 5 straight in NBA leading into Sunday, Celtics and Suns pending), and after seeing team after team blow a lead in the final 90 seconds two weeks back, those late leads began translating into winners...as expected. Simply put, it's easier to win a game if you're ahead as time is running out. That's my Maddenism for the day.

The big news out of the NBA over the weekend is the firing of Jim O'Brien as coach of the Indiana Pacers, a move that has been long overdue. O'Brien has a rich history of abandoning plans without giving them a chance to succeed, and, in my mind, I picture Jim O'Brien at Pacers practices paying homage to Rick Moranis in Spaceballs:

"KEEP FIRING, ASSHOLES!"

Why play defense, when you can just bomb threes and cross your fingers?

Otherwise, rumbling into a new week, trying to make time to plan for a cross-country move and a wedding, and looking to see if maybe the rules of gravity can change briefly to create an hour or two extra in an Earth day. It's just a good thing the NBA only has 30 teams...

Sports Wagering: NBA

Denver Nuggets @ New Jersey Nets with a total of N/A;
It seems somewhat likely that this line is on a delay because Denver is set to play a Sunday early evening game in Philadelphia, though I suppose an injury may have slipped past my view. Denver has (and we'll see if it continues) made a directed effort to shed the tag "bad road team" on this very road trip, and it's not a bad time to make that call, since Denver got to play Washington, Detroit, Philadelphia, and now Jersey, 4 very winnable games for a good Western Conference team. I don't think we're learning much new about the Nuggets, though it does prove they're still good enough to beat relatively poor teams at sea level. Of course, if there's a game Denver might lose on the road, this would be the one. It's the final game of the 4-games-in-6-nights road trip, and they head home to host a division rival (Blazers) on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Jersey continues to be a disaster on the road, but they've been playing significantly better at home, and I'm not sure anyone is noticing. I expect the Nuggets to open near a 4-point favorite, maybe a tiny bit less because of the back-to-back, and at that number, I think JERSEY can stick it out with a total that stays UNDER.

Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers (-8) with a total of 208;
Do we get the coaching change bump in basketball like we did in the NFL? I'm not really sure anything changes for Indiana. Maybe Jim O'Brien was stifling Roy Hibbert in some way, but then, I don't know what went on behind closed doors. This is a very winnable game for the Pacers, and we saw them wipe the floor with a weak road team in Jersey, and then get smashed by the Bulls yet again. Who knows what to expect from Indy, at this point? The Raptors are a total mess, too, and while one team most certainly has to win this game, asking a slumping team to cover 8 to 9 points is a lot. Keeping this writeup brief - this game comes down to whether you believe new Coach Vogel will motivate his guys into a short win streak. I personally don't know, but coaching changes usually do something, either good or bad. We'll take a shot with good and lean to INDIANA and the OVER.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat (-17.5) with a total of 202.5;
This could very well be the Cavaliers last chance to get a win in the month of January, though as I write this, they gear up to try their wimpy little hands against the Magic. Frankly, it's unlikely that the Cavs will win either of these two games, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them cover one of the two. There's still some residual LeBronimosity lingering in Cleveland, especially as the season winds its way down one of the deepest, sludge-filled toilets in a humid Cleveland-area truck stop bathroom, and I wonder if that little tinge of hate doesn't get Cleveland a narrow cover. It's tough to win by 18 when Miami just finished up a huge win on the road in Oklahoma, and after this game heads to Orlando for a divisional showdown. Sandwiches for the Heat, anger for the Cavs, I think CLEVELAND weasels out a cover in a game that stays UNDER the total by a bucket.

Orlando Magic (-2) @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total of 198.5;
I might be willing to chalk this one up as a possible revenge game, though Memphis will find themselves looking at a pretty different Orlando team. Still, Memphis did lose by 17 in an horrifically low-scoring effort down in Florida back in mid-November, and they can definitely play some basketball, especially at home. Memphis has, somewhat quietly, crept back up to the .500 mark on the season, winning 5 of their last 6, but those 6 games have been against largely bad teams, and this will be a true test. Maybe more importantly, Orlando, like Miami above, has a bit of a showdown coming up in a couple of days. Orlando does have 2 days off between games, so the look-ahead should be a little less severe than, say, a team on back-to-back, but they are playing in a little fatigue spot here, with a little look-ahead, against a team with a little revenge. Catching a theme? Little lean to MEMPHIS, and little lean to the UNDER.

Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks with a total of N/A;
Who knows? I mean, really. Washington is now starting to get a little hot under the collar, and Nick Young suggested that perhaps inconsistent play-calling is responsible for their road woes. I made a pact with myself not to bet on a team in turmoil, and though I suspect most of that ire will subside between games, and a good deal of it can be chalked up to just general frustration, if Washington is upset, truly upset, I can't back them. They're likely to be a nice value on the road for the rest of the season, since we're seeing lines continually inflated on this team that just can't get it done away from home, and they'll probably cover 1 of the final 2 games on this road trip, but I don't have strong feelings against Dallas, and that would be the only way I could get on board with the Wiz. PASS on the side, totals lean to the OVER, since the Wiz have played to 4 straight Overs, and Dallas, to 3.

Charlotte Bobcats @ Utah Jazz with a total of N/A;
This is another of those weird spots where the HOME team is the one flying into altitude on a back-to-back. And, interestingly, the Bobcats, who we backed successfully in Phoenix and Golden State, and faded successfully in Los Angeles, are actually playing a "never surrender" brand of basketball that should be just perfect against a struggling team fighting fatigue. Deron Williams' health throws a bit of a wrench into the plan, since his return could mean that he's the only Jazz player with a full complement of fuel in the tank, and his absence could mean that the other guys try to play above themselves. Simply put, though, I like that Charlotte's only recent loss came in one of the most devastating of fatigue spots, and I like that Charlotte is going to fight for 48 minutes, even if they're pooped out. They could win this game. Lean to CHARLOTTE and the UNDER.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) with a total of 188.5;
I'm a little concerned that the Clippers don't really have the full spark without Eric Gordon. It leaves them without a guy that can truly create a shot off the dribble (and make it). Baron Davis can create plays, but he can't finish like he used to, and with the Bucks superior team defense, they might just force Davis to beat them. I wonder what we'll get from Griffin. He had a nice first half against Charlotte, but the Bobcats large bodies in the paint seemed to slow him down considerably in the second half. Luckily, the Clippers didn't need him against an exhausted Charlotte club, but playing against a rested Bucks team that is getting Jennings back into the mix is going to be a different type of challenge. The problems for Milwaukee continue to be on offense, and I'm not sure that Ersan Ilyasova can keep Griffin off the glass like Boris Diaw (much bulkier) could. The Clippers should win this game and keep playing well at home, but something tells me it's closer than most expect. CLIPPERS cover by free throws and the game stays UNDER.
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Comments
  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 2:52 PM

    pop!

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 2:55 PM

    You've been on a roll dan, keep it up

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 2:55 PM

    Well done, Coco - sneaking in for the pop before I started posting the link elsewhere!

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 2:56 PM

    TWEET THIS BLOG'S SHORT LINK, LET'S KEEP SPREADING THE WORD!

    http://bit.ly/e80imt

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  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 2:56 PM

    Thanks, Dan!

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 2:57 PM

    Thanks Bears -- hopefully the last couple days are just the START of something bigger!

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 3:06 PM

    Looks like our 2* on Boston is going to cash easily!  6 in a row...Phoenix tonight for #7?  I hope so!

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 3:10 PM

    Way to get em Dan!!!!!

    I was all over Bos ML.....feeling much better after falling on my face last night.

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 3:14 PM

    CELTICS!!

    (dan on fire)

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 3:17 PM

    I'm going to listen to the Rocky IV training montage to stay pumped for the late game.

    P.S. you guys all knew which team I was on 2 months ago, right?  This was one of those plays I telegraphed from a mile away.

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  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 3:37 PM

    I'm in a paid fantasy league with my cousin, we're a couple steals away from wrapping up a nice win over the #1 team.  Feels good.

    Too bad my Pregame-league team is horrid

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 4:28 PM

    Dano, last day of holidays for me until back to the grind.  Been a nice little run while having the time to look at games daily.  I'll give you a little run down of the East - my speciality and unsurprisingly where most of the plays come from.

    Boston - Quality as we all know.  Bench depth is terrific.

    Chicago - Next best in the East by a far way.  Of all the big time off-season moves Boozer may well be as good as it gets. Defence is starting to hit a groove.

    Miami - One question = HEALTH.  Bench is a patchwork of pieces and remains to be seen come playoffs.  Rotations have significantly improved.

    Orlando - Overrated.  Can't win when Dwight is huge rings alarm bells. Big moves where feel good rather than addressing the underlying issues.

    Atlanta - Forget max-deal Joe and J Smith this is Al Horford's team.  Still undersized up front.  Love to CRUSH weaker opponents. Questionable - no team worth a grain of salt puts up a 59 point performance.

    New York - Yeah hell they're fun to watch but they're several steps behind the upper-tier.  I think I could coach them - Felton pick-and-roll with Amare, no-one comes shoot the 3, double Amare, Fields setup in the corner, Chandler play some NBA street ball, and Danilo hang around to shoot some Ts.  On D don't foul because we have no bench.  Fatigue is big with this team.

    Philadelphia - Not sold on them by a long way and I think they miss the playoffs.  Need to decide what they want to do at the off guard - Meeks, Turner, Williams all do the same thing but not yet.  On the flip side they are well coached and disciplined and should present good betting opportunities.

    Charlotte - Larry Brown's days where done, finally they have a modern NBA game plan.  They lack any star quality and will still have plenty of poor shooting nights but they are playing hard and S Jax is even having fun. Eighth seed.

    Milwaukee - Set to make a move.  BJ, DG, CD, JS all back or close to.  Bogut is the workman they need. Could even move as high as 6th spot.  Expect huge, grinding D slug fests - not pretty to watch.

    Indiana - Best move for the season just made. Jim O'Brien was the worst coach in the NBA.  Too many guys called AJ and TJ getting minutes, play Collison for high 30s and let him finish off games.  Diabolical PF - Tyler not the answer but have to do.  Settle on MD or BR, I mean come on it's not going to matter.

    Detroit - Pick your spots only team, they are still very poor.  Stuckey has come along.

    New Jersey - One shitty front court, no NBA team says "Oh man we got the Nets coming up and they have Outlaw and Favours up front".  Melo doesn't want to go.  Remain reasonable value at home and fadeable (is that a word?) on the road.

    Washington - Andray Blatche just goes to prove you can be 6'10 260 built like the side of a house and "soft as".  Playing their version of hard and considering the very large spreads they will be seeing remain decent enough value.  Do expect their bench to hold any sort of a lead.

    Toronto - I'll say it I like Toronto, the NBAs European outpost. Bargnani taken some steps especially as the new number one, Calderon is solid enough but they are so thin they need everyone.

    Cleveland - I won't waste the energy.  They have tried playing slow, they tried putting up points but they are D League.

    Thoughts?

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 6:05 PM

    Hey Dan,

    Reminde we why we took PHX? haha.  I think the moral of the story is take the better team (or the team that has the winning record at least) and lay the points.

    If the Bobcats can come into town and beat the Suns outright, why not New Orleans?  Oh well, can't win them all I guess.  Let's get back on a winning streak tomorrow!

  • Sun, Jan 30 2011 6:09 PM

    Scott - I should ban you from the blog for saying that type of crap with a tie game at halftime!  What's gotten into you, man?  What about Detroit-NY?  Should you just take the better team and lay the points there?

    I don't mean to be a butthead here, but you CANNOT draw conclusions from ONE game, ESPECIALLY not a game that is 1.5 point away from a cover with 24 minutes left!

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