TNT Dinnertime Blog, Heatle Flavor: NBA RoundUp for 1/27

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TNT Dinnertime Blog, Heatle Flavor: NBA RoundUp for 1/27

Opener:

Getting this blog out early, but I will say that one of the big things I'm going to be assessing at the end of the Wednesday slate will be how the inordinately large number of road favorites performed. You guys know I generally am not a fan, but there were a few intriguing ones, maybe more than usual because the road lines were in the 2-to-4 range. I definitely want to chat about how those games play out when they reach their conclusion, so feel free to bring up any topics you like, especially related to the lopsided card.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Miami Heat (-3) @ New York Knicks with a total of 208;
Double in-season revenge, but here's the problem - the Knicks run an offense almost exclusively through pick-and-roll (with a smattering of "give it to Amar'e" mixed in there), and the Heat might very well be the best pick-and-roll defensive team in the NBA. There's a good reason they beat up on the Knicks in both games so far this season, not the least of which is the aforementioned match-up edge. Chris Bosh is out, so that's keeping this line just a shade lower than usual, but the other two Heatles are expected to go, and I'm not all that convinced that the Heat need Bosh to win this game. And I admit, I hate when I want to play a road favorite, especially one as public as the Heat, but most of the angles do indeed point to Miami. Both teams are coming out of mini-slumps, though Miami's was largely due to injury, both teams can score, but only one of the two teams can defend. In addition, the Heat haven't played in 5 days, the perfect recipe for a team that needed to rest some aching bones. Will they be rusty? I don't think so, not with two guys that can get to the rim and finish. It's amazing how quickly the rust can shake off when you get knocked to the deck in the first 3 minutes, bang through a couple free throws, and then start raining in buckets. Lean to MIAMI and the OVER, as I believe the Knicks will shoot a little better (courtesy of the double revenge), and really, I might even like the total lean more than the side.

Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks (-5.5) with a total of 204;
Dallas is slowly getting its groove back, and Houston is, well, a zero-defense shoot-first monster. At this point, I'm a little ticked at myself for missing the chance to play some Overs on Houston games in the last week. I watched a few of those contests, and they might be the most up-tempo team in the NBA right now, largely because they're content just letting the other team score most trips down the court. And thus, I can't help but wonder how Houston plans on winning competitive games. Maybe they won't, and that's okay, because all that tells us is that betting Houston to cover any large spreads is a death wish. As an underdog, though, they could shoot themselves into a cover. Dallas is starting to get things back together on the offensive side, but they're not quite themselves yet, and this short line is indicative of that. We know Dallas is going to try, at least at first, to slow it down, but if Houston gets out to a quick start, that might force the Mavs to score right along with them. Dallas could still sneak out a cover, and for that reason, only the tiniest of side leans to the MAVS, but with both clubs scoring, it might be worth a peek at the OVER.

Boston Celtics (-4) @ Portland Trailblazers with a total of 187;
This line is about what I expected, so that makes finding a monster value a little tough. Portland is, however, quite accustomed to grabbing some late TNT spotlights, and they haven't shied away from those big games. This is also a revenge spot from a 99-95 loss in Boston back at the beginning of December. My biggest concern with the Blazers, though, is that they just don't have enough firepower to compete with Boston when the Celtics are really giving max effort. And, I do expect a good effort from Boston here. Boston enjoys the bigger stages, this is the start of a road trip out West where veteran teams have a tendency to pull together, and we all remember how much Boston enjoys dealing butt-kickings out to the mid-tier teams in their buildings. Here's the thing - Boston shot 57% in that last game with Portland, at home, and still only won by 4 points. Portland just shot 46%, but took extremely cautious care of the basketball, utilized those extra possessions and nearly stole one on the road. Portland is coming off a terrible show against Sacramento, so they'll be focused on this one, Boston could potentially be a tiny bit jet-lagged from the flight from Ohio, and they have the Suns and Lakers on the horizon. Small lean to PORTLAND to take this one down to a final 30 second-decision (though we know my luck on those this month), and the UNDER, because neither team is shooting 57% this time around.
  • Dan said come over to the New blog Denmarkok

  • Jeff... I promise on a stack of Bebe's Blogs I would read your e-mails.

    Boston is in a bit of a physical game. I still think they pull out a W but they'll be feeling it in Phoenix tomorrow night. May be my excuse to fade.

    Utah can't beat their own meat, much less anyone else right now. So why am I looking at -9 against a Minny team that gave OKC all they wanted  and they've been relatively consistent with handling big chalk on the road? I've got to back the Jazz at some point in the next game or two...I mean it's hard to drop 6 straight games ATS in the NBA like they have...but...

    Miami SU loss in NYC...think they tee off on Detroit with a double digit win at home on Friday??? Or is that a "look ahead" spot? LeBron and Wade v. KD and Westbrook kick off ABC's Sunday Hoops schedule and with the loss to the Knicks they will be even more amped to set things straight on national TV. Noon tip is simply too early for my Thunder...I mean the Baptists aren't even out of church yet, much less out of the cafeteria and at the arena formerly known as the Ford Center.

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  • Good to see some of the NBA vets in here tonight.  Hope you guys are all doing well.

  • Alright, finally finishing up Friday's capping.  So much to do!

    Luckily, a GREAT Friday card coming up!

  • Jeff: I'd be interested in looking through your stuff.  What is the best way to do this?  You want me to email you? and your address is?

  • Hahaha, took me a few months to truly "get" Jeff from Indy, but I think I know when I'm loved now :)

  • I think your right on the mark with your break down of the Thunder =/Heat game, Denmarkok. They struggle a little at home especially on Sunday. (Was there for that clunker against the Celts) and Spurs and Jazz gave it to them as well. Want to see the actual line but Miami would be the early lean, but that performance in NYC was horendous tonight.

  • JohnnyMan18:

    Schedule analysis is at the very top of my handicapping priority and has been for many, many years

    I am not a fundamental capper so focus on the emotional and motivational aspects of the NBA

    Schedule plays by themselves are excellent but don't guarantee a long term profit

    I have a very long list of reinforcements, confirmations, and validations that I use to supplement the schedule analysis

    Again, I would be willing to share these through email but not over Dan's blog

    Maybe you might actually read my emails compared to Dan who is too busy doing podcasts, mediating blogs, and getting married

    Regards - Jeff from Indy

  • Gentlemen:

    I certainly appreciate your interest in our 4 year system studies

    As we have offerred before, we will not be able to share that info on the blog but would be receptive to sharing certain subets via email

    Eg, the First Home Game results to enlighten Dan and others as to Dan's questionable or valid theories

  • Hell froze over in NY, Lebron got called for traveling.

  • Sat in Loud City last year. Fun place. Crowd was not out of hand. 13 y/o son had fun. Got tickets last year and this time through ticket exchange. Got a pretty good deal on them. It is one of the things on dads "bucket list".

  • Geeez.... maybe D Wade should always play ball in shades...

  • PS -- one word comes into play where the Thunder is concerned: Media. 'Nuff said. You guys have a great time! Wish my dad would have been around to see KD and the gang. He would have loved watching the development of the team in a place no one gave a thought to the support or success of an NBA franchise. Thank you Hurricane Katrina (iI's been long enough to throw that kind of comment out there? Maybe?).

    Speaking of sitting in the "end zone"... had this conversation with an OSU fan the other day. They were lamenting on how attendance had dropped at Cowboys BB games at Gallagher-Iba (that place used to be absolutely brutal...not so much now). I asked which a casual fan would be more likely to invest in at this point...$35 to $60 for OSU or $10 to watch people like Kobe and LeBron take on the Thunder from Loud City. Since the arena formerly known as the Ford Center was originally designed for hockey, I'm not sure most people understand the way the layout of the top section affects the place acoustically. It's like a cacophonous cascade bombarding the court (totally unlike the Cox Center/ Myriad across the street).  I have a great love for the citizens of Loud City (Shhhh...I've been known to sneak up there from time to time). It's an NBA experience in itself.

  • Hey Denmark, do you have season tickets to the Thunder? I'm taking my dad to his first ever NBA game Friday (my sons and my 2nd game) in OKC. Sitting in the "end zone" at the top of the lower bowl. Looking forward to the game, and Mr. Bebe writeup of it.