Make Your Free Shots: NBA RoundUp for 1/4

Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs
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Make Your Free Shots: NBA RoundUp for 1/4

Monday Recap:

Our Monday came down to Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul hitting free throws -- if they went 4-of-4, we go 2-0. As it was, they hit 3-of-4, and we got ourselves a nice 2* winner on the Hornets, and a Push on the 1* Freebie on Denver. Two very good free throw shooters, those will usually drop, but we'll take the +2 unit night any day of the week. Greed will kill us, but damn if I didn't want the "W" on the freebie instead of the Push.

Promo Weekly Section:

Last week we featured the Monthly Flex Package, and a few people took advantage of that great deal -- a smart call, since you get every play I release for the price of about 8 days' worth of picks.

This week, we'll rotate the feature spotlight to a Pregame SPECIAL -- the brass have brought back the DAN BEBE NBA SEASON PASS ... it was $495 for the season back in November, and if you missed the first third, you can STILL get a ridiculously tasty deal now, the rest of the season for $349, you're still looking at only about $3 per play!!!

And, as always, the daily stuff -- Off yet another Paid NBA winners (in fact, we've had 1 NBA Paid loser in each of the last 2 weeks, so that usually bodes well), let's add another couple units to the coffers!
ADD NBA TUESDAY 2* PLAY of the NIGHT to CART!

And for the love of Pete, keep telling friends about the podcast, and read the entire blog, not just the leans!

Sports Wagering: NBA

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat (-11) with a total of 184.5;
This one is simple to me. The Heat are winning games, and unless I think an underdog has a decent shot to actually win the game, I'm probably not going to take a shot. And even more importantly, this is the start of a home-and-home series between these two teams. As we've done all season, we'll just wait, bide our time, and cash a ticket on the rematch. Milwaukee does play Orlando in between the games with Miami, but I don't believe that changes much. Nice, short writeup here, since I AM PASSING on the side, and eying the UNDER, but barely.

San Antonio Spurs (-4) @ New York Knicks with a total of 208.5;
The one thing the Knicks have been able to do most of the year is hang around, but this is definitely going to be one of their toughest tests. The Knicks are not in any sort of schedule spot, and situationally, this game is only important because of who the opponent is, so I'm hard-pressed to find a reason to like or dislike NY. On the Spurs side, the only angle worth noting is that they play in Boston tomorrow night on back-to-back, but given they've won and covered 4 straight heading into this contest, the Spurs are not a team I'm particularly interested in fading right now. I don't think I can back them either, just in case the guys are saving some juice for Boston, and the Knicks hit a meaningless 3-ball to lose by 3 points, but I sure as heck can't back the Knicks, given their poor defense and the Spurs' ability to score. ANOTHER PASS on the side, slight lean to the UNDER on the total.

Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls (-10) with a total of 199.5;
The Raptors have been pretty severely undermanned lately, with Andrea Bargnani missing time, and guys like Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozan, Jose Calderon, and others all missing a game or two here and there. Thing is, this team can still shoot the rock, so if you're not paying attention, the Raptors can put a few points on the board, but if Chicago is even mildly focused, they should dominate this game. That's what we saw in the Boston-Toronto game. The opponent focused on defense, and Toronto got crushed. Chicago has that chance, and they can end the game early, but Chicago has also shown a propensity to let teams hang around for 3 quarters before turning it on late. It's tough to cover 10 points playing that way. This one is another coin flip, in my opinion, though I do lean just slightly to CHICAGO to finally cover a spread, and because of that, just a hair to the UNDER.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies (Pk) with a total of 198.5;
Oklahoma City almost looks too easy at this number, don't they? Still, I wouldn't bet the Thunder just based on the opening line, as the Grizzlies are coming off one of their strongest defensive efforts of the season, and Oklahoma is coming off getting completely undressed in San Antonio, yet again. Last year, the Thunder seemed to have the Grizzlies pretty well figured out, and we've seen time and against Oklahoma laying the wood to teams off a straight up loss, so maybe this is just a favorable number on the Thunder after all. Neither team is in a particularly good or bad scheduling spot, so I'm riding on the assumption the Thunder don't take kindly to the ass-kicking they took in Texas, and I lean to OKLAHOMA and the OVER.

Portland Trailblazers @ Dallas Mavericks with a total of N/A;
We still have no clue who is actually going to play for the Mavericks, but with Caron Butler going down for 2 months, and Dirk still questionable, calling them shorthanded is pretty accurate. Both of these teams have probably done their best work in the opposite spot of what we see tonight. Portland has been a machine at home, but awful on the road, and we all know about Dallas's road prowess, at least when they're healthy. Still, Dallas would seem to be deep enough to compete even without Dirk, and Portland is, seemingly, one of the few teams with the right type of guys to actually guard Nowitzki, even when he's healthy. I struggle to see how Portland can consistently score on Dallas, but then, I've been surprised before. Let's see where the line comes out, but I'm inclined to peek at DALLAS and the UNDER.

Atlanta Hawks (-6.5) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 189;
Don't look now, but Sacramento has actually covered their last 2 home games. Say what? Yeah, it's true - they've rebounded exceptionally well, so if the opponent isn't playing at least a decent game, then they're in for a contest. Unfortunately, Atlanta is actually starting to play a little better, and perhaps it's because Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford are both healthy, at long last, and Josh Smith is scaling back his outside jumpers. Atlanta also has a very tough game tomorrow night up in the altitude of Salt Lake City, so they're likely to really want this one before, perhaps, giving a half-hearted effort in Utah, knowing that is just a game not worth wasting 3 days' worth of energy just for a chance of winning. Still, despite all that, this is a very big spread for a road team that hasn't shown consistency away from their building, and believe it or not, the line inflation is enough to give me a tiny lean to the KINGS and the OVER.

Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Lakers (-13) with a total of 194;
The Lakers are a disaster, the Pistons are coming off a game in Utah, and we know how they've been able to play zero defense on the back end of back-to-backs. Where do we wager on this one? The Lakers ATS streakiness may very continue, but against a team that doesn't play much defense, the Lakers could go nuts. It's the teams that outwork the Lakers that continue to give them problems, and the Pistons are not really known for their workmanlike attitude in 2010-11, not with the team being led by outside shooters, for the most part. This line might actually be where it should be. Detroit is on revenge from a Lakers win at the Palace, but let's be serious, half that arena was Laker-friendly, anyway. Do the Pistons really consider themselves good enough to have revenge? I doubt it, though certainly they'll want to win. Let's see how they perform in Utah, but without knowing, I'd take a small look at the LAKERS, but more interested in the UNDER.
  • Lakers dominating. I know it sounds silly but I think the Lakers. ( or at least Kobe) Still remember what the Pistons did to them in the finals and make sure to show up vs them.

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  • Damn Grizz killed me. Oh well Buckeyes softened the blow.

  • Had a sneaking suspicion the Grizzzz were gonna come to play...alright, time to get tomorrow's MONDO-size blog up and running!

  • Well, this 1* is going down the pooper...and THAT, my friends, is why we backed it down to the smallest possible play.

    BIG DAY tomorrow!!

  • Thank heavens I wasn't paying $82.50  per beer like at the Oklahoma City Arena for that game! Talk about coming out of the locker room flat for the 2nd half. Jeez. Gotta give props to the Grizzlies for a tremendous effort in a semi-physical game *and* for getting inside Serge Ibaka's head early. When you get a player talking to himself your defense has done something right. Saturday night will be rocking when Memphis travels west. Just one game but the Fluff-O-Meter just went to Fluffy-full for the Thunder against the Mavs. If they don't keep that one at least close to the spread I may consider pawning family members for Saturday.  HA!

    In the meantime that OVER is looking good on the Sugar Bowl so I'm not complaining too much unless both teams decide they've scored enough touchdowns for one game and they could call the 4th quarter in... nah, I didn't think so.

  • Knicks hit the team over in the 3rd qtr, funny

  • I guess at least the Pac-10 is looking decent.....

  • Yeah, I was thinking that maybe the mia/mil game might no reach that at the final but then i realized that the heatles were playing. Dan, I've actually started going through the next day's card before I read your blog. While I am learning, you are still the Jedi master...ps we have the axe and the orange bowl now

  • Haha wow I didn't know those old legs had it in them.

  • crazy stuff! 70 points 1st quarter and its hardly slowed one bit haha. spurs will be tired tomorrow!

  • Wow a little bit of scoring going on in NY.

  • Wizards +7 over philly tomorrow! first play ill be taking.

  • adding a pistons under 92 play . looks like the knicks summation was way wrong! ah well . you get that.  

  • Haha, I agree Dan but at the same time he wants to win the game and I can't blame him for playing them. I can play the NCAA for letting them be eligible.