One Dollar Capper Day (or Detroit Wins Two): NBA RoundUp for 12/23

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One Dollar Capper Day (or Detroit Wins Two): NBA RoundUp for 12/23

Wednesday Recap:

The week is really starting to take shape! A little 2-0 baby-sweep on Wednesday brought us to a perfect 4-0 in NBA this week, and with the Saturday and Sunday success, 5 straight winning days. Last night, Detroit blasted Toronto for our 2* winner, and the Sixers hung in there with Boston for a 1* capper. Diggin' it.

Thursday, I'm the ONE DOLLAR CAPPER! Yes, I don't yell often about my Pro stuff, but come on, a buck?!!
ADD THURSDAY ONE DOLLAR CAPPER PLAY to CART!

Pro(mo) Section:

Last week the blog's had no promo due to me being out of town the previous week and due to running in place on the betting ledger.

This week, the focus is on the still-very-valuable COLLEGE BOWL SEASON PASS!

My Bowl Season Package is only $99, a solid 33% less than most other cappers, and that's because I am a low-volume CFB bettor. If you're looking for fewer plays with the best winning percentage, those 99 clams will not only save you money off others' packages, it'll make us all a goodly handful as the winning tickets pour in.

In addition, the Bowl Season Pass will include ALL THREE of my Bowl Season "Big" Plays, which went on a 10-2, 12-week run in the regular season.

And with that, a blog...

Sports Wagering: NBA

San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic (-2.5) with a total of 199.5;
This line is intriguing to me, given what we know about back-to-back spots. Orlando last played against Dallas 2 days back, another team that was facing a back-to-back, and Orlando was a 4-point favorite over the Mavericks in that contest, indicating to me that the Mavs were considered a 1-point neutral court fave. This line, at 1.5-points less, tell us the Spurs are ranked as 1.5-points better than the Mavs, and a full 2.5-points better than the Magic. Is this accurate? Maybe, maybe not. In any event, the Mavs continued to roll on the road, so one might argue that, at least right now, most lines with the Magic are going to be off by a hair. The Mavs tried the odd strategy of playing a match-up zone defense, and that didn't really work. Dallas had to outscore Orlando to win. I don't imagine the Spurs will go that same route. No one can truly stop Dwight Howard, but the Spurs are crafty, and I'd be surprised if they let guys like J.J. Redick get wide open looks like Dallas did. Will fatigue be an issue, is the next question. Every time I thought the Spurs would slow, they found a way to play better defense and slow the game down, as well. I'm not concerned about the Spurs' energy. Orlando might have a tiny look-ahead to Boston, but you have to think they're more focused on winning the game at hand. They need Jason Richardson to warm up, or they'll get beat again. Small lean to SAN ANTONIO and the UNDER.

Milwaukee Bucks (-1) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 185.5;
A trap line? The Bucks, even without Jennings, only laying a single point to the worst team in the NBA sure smells funny, but I just can't back the Kings. Sacramento has zero offensive continuity, and the only reason they were able to take a lead on the Warriors (before blowing it) was because of superior rebounding. Milwaukee is much bigger than Golden State, and though they might be in a letdown spot off the revenge win over the Lakers, they might also be in a confident spot. Sacramento, to me, is a team that is beyond backing. I don't say that often. They find ways to lose, and they find ways to lose big, most times. I'm not going to belabor this point. There is no reason to back the Kings, and even though I'm not saying you should back Milwaukee (since there are ample reasons to pass on this game, altogether), the only logical conclusion is a baby lean to MILWAUKEE and the UNDER.

Miami Heat (-6) @ Phoenix Suns with a total of 209;
How much does revenge matter, here, and how much is Miami just too dominant for the Suns? Here are my 4 angles. First, as noted, is revenge. Miami walloped Phoenix in November down in Florida, though Steve Nash was extremely banged up, and even though he tried to play, he wasn't himself. Not a great barometer, but Phoenix got steamrolled. Second, Miami just lost its first game off a long win streak. I tend to like to fade teams in the letdown off a long streak, so this angle points to Phoenix, too. Third, Phoenix just made a monster trade, sending away Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu, and acquiring Marcin Gortat, Vince Carter, and Mikael Pietrus. It sounds like Carter is considering arthroscopic surgery on his knee, so his health is an issue, and Pietrus and Gortat don't understand the Phoenix gameplan, yet. The return to health of Robin Lopez is helping Phoenix on the interior, and they've covered 2 in a row with some hot shooting, but unless Phoenix fires over 50% from the field, I have trouble seeing them hang within 8-9 points. What are the odds Phoenix shoots 52%? Those are your odds for Phoenix to hang tough. The fourth and final angle is the look-ahead. Miami plays in LA on Christmas Day, so LeBron and Wade might be gearing up for the Kobe experience. This angle could weigh heavily. Thus, put all those together, and the angles point 3:1 in Phoenix's favor. Lean to the SUNS and the OVER.
  • WEEKEND THREAD TIME!!!!!

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    http://bit.ly/hIOaJC

    http://bit.ly/hIOaJC

    !!!

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  • Son of a gun!

    As soon as that D-Wade injury news came out, I knew we were in for a monster LeBron game, and Wade being out sort of wiped out part of the look-ahead factor.

    Very frustrating, but that type of late-scratch crap is going to happen from time to time, and despite all of that, we had 3 shots in the final minute to get a back door, and couldn't get it.

    Just one game, but I f**king HATE that it had to happen to snap our undefeated NBA run this week.  Grr.

    Thanks to everyone that got on board, and all I can say is that next time a giant injury and line swing probably won't happen.

    PISS!

  • hey dan on an unrelated note do you know how i can buy your picks using the $25 sign up coupon. I tried buying ur pick today but it was like 'put in the coupon code' and i couldn't find the code anywhere. it's prob. too late to buy ur pick today but i'll be buying it for christmas

  • Hey whitebluegold -

    I had to delete your post since it revealed my play for tonight...but to answer your question, there should be a note at the beginning of the writeup that talks about backing off to a 1* play with the new spread.

    I would play it for HALF of what you would have if you were on the line released this morning around 9-10am PT

  • Thanks Dan!  Let's keep this hot streak going!

  • Wanted to make one final push for the ONE DOLLAR PLAY -- make me proud, loyal bebeites!

    Also, I will get a WEEKEND thread up for Friday through Sunday, since no NBA tomorrow.  Just a heads up.

    Now I'm off to help clean a garage, then watch some TNT

  • Oops, I mean I'm making a promise to you that I WILL improve on it.

  • Hayes - I got the email from support, and hopefully they should hit you back with a reply.

    I'm making a promise to you improve on that second point!

  • Hayes -- yeah, Pregame support will forward questions along to me.

    If it's about the line on tonight's game, I just went in and added a quick note about it in the writeup...

    Let's rock! :)

  • Dan - nice work this week.  Love tonight's pick.  

    What's the best way to send you a comment/question  that's not really appropriate for the blogs/forums?  Should i email Pregame support?

  • Hmm...checking some injury pages...Wade listed as QUESTIONABLE is the best I can find

  • Agree with all your leans Dan. Good point about Miami look ahead plus somewhat revenge for Suns. I like Phoenix alot more. GL!

  • Dan please pay for your dragon tattoo that you got last year.  Lewis, someone has to be ruled out. You'd think that the linesmakers knew this is the first night that the new guys would play for PHX...I was waiting for a +7. Maybe they had to pass their physicals, or perhaps Derek Anderson is starting at left bench...

  • Back up now at Sportsbook.com...weird.

  • Heat/Phx game off the board in some places...any idea why?