Fear the Deer: NBA RoundUp for 11/11

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Fear the Deer: NBA RoundUp for 11/11

Recap: I'd say we've moved from *warm* to *pretty damn hot* with yesterday's results. The Bucks crushed the Hawks for a FREE winner, the Mavs blasted the Grizzlies for a 1* Paid winner, and the Nets played tremendous 2nd half defense in their win (and our 2* winner) against the Cavaliers. 3-0 sweep on Wednesday means we're 6-0 this week on all NBA plays, and dating back to Thursday of last week, we've hit our last 6 straight NBA "Top" plays (the biggest of the day). Straight rollin'.

Today: We're 2 weeks into the NBA season, so I'll go ahead and remove the Season Preview Podcast from these daily threads. If you want to check out that bad boy, or any of the other shows, visit PregamePodcasts.com.

I am not, however, eliminating the link to my season pass:

And, as usual, a daily package -- 6-0 on NBA this week, and 6 straight NBA "Top" winners, just getting warmer by the day!:

If all that hasn't inundated you, here's a blog:

Sports Wagering: NBA

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat (-6.5) with a total of 183.5;
Oh boy...here we go. The rematch of the opening night mayhem in Boston. Is there some revenge? Definitely, but I still believe we'll get the Celtics best punch against a team that feels has garnered undeserved accolades. That makes this side very, very tough to break down. Both teams are highly motivated, and you know LeBron is going to try to do too much, which, to some degree, plays into the Celtics' defensive scheme. D-Wade has, on the other hand, had some success against the Boston defense, so we'll see how Miami approaches this game. Boston lost in a close game in Dallas 3 days ago, so they're well rested, and that's often a huge key to the Celtics' success. Miami is coming off that stinging OT loss to the Jazz, courtesy of Paul Millsap's insane night. Miami should win this game - they'll knock down some shots at home, and they sure as hell won't threaten the franchise low for points, a dubious mark that Miami nearly grabbed in their opening night loss in Boston. Put all of that together, and I get the weird feeling that these teams actually score a few points early in the game. The defenses of both teams were on full display on opening night, and the teams combined to score just 168 points. But in a closer game, and in a game where we'll go ahead and assume Miami will shoot a bit better than the 36.5% they logged in that first one...and the teams combined to make just 34 free throws and turn the ball over 35 times...well, literally nothing went right for points to be scored. I think this line is a little overadjusted, lean to the OVER. On the side, I think folks might read too much into that opening night game, and Boston is going to come out with another solid effort - lean to the CELTICS.

Golden State Warriors @ Chicago Bulls with a total of N/A;
Beware the schedule-makers. Golden State plays its 4th in 5 nights here in Chicago, also it's 5th in 7 nights, if you include the final game of their recently-completed homestand. Amazingly, this isn't the final game of the road trip! Golden State looks vastly improved this year, but this type of scheduling isn't doing them any services. The Bulls are rested, coming off a nice home win over the Nuggets back on Monday, and the Warriors still have one more game on the roadie, in Milwaukee, on Saturday. Brutal. And it's especially tough on a team that has a shooting guard playing through a severe back sprain, and a point guard playing through an ankle injury. Golden State needs healthy bodies (as always), and when everyone starts to get worn down and just wants a day off, that's when bad things happen. This line will likely be pretty high, considering the scheduling, somewhere in the neighborhood of 9, but if they're ready for the Warriors' attempts to play streetball, Chicago could very well counter that, and win this game by 15+. Unless the Warriors lose by 30 to the Knicks, lean to the BULLS and to the UNDER.

Los Angeles Lakers (-3) @ Denver Nuggets with a total of 210;
This game sets up very interestingly, especially on the Denver side. The Nuggets return home off one of the most embarrassing losses of the Carmelo-era, falling by 31 to the Indiana Pacers. Still, it was their 4th game in 5 nights, the last game of a road trip, and you just knew Denver would start to think about the Lakeshow coming to town. Well, here they are. The Lakers are coming off a rather pedestrian effort against the Wolves, though it was enough to win. And quietly, the Lakers have looked a little lackadaisical against 2 of their last 3 opponents. Yes, they turned it on for the Blazers, but will they be able to ratchet up the gears on the road in a hostile environment, as easily as they did at home? Are we starting to see the mid-season Lakers, a team that will be happy to just cruise along, winning a ton of games on talent? It's possible. As far as Denver goes, I might normally be inclined to look at the visitor in a spot like this, since the Nuggets are set to play their first home game off a 4-game roadie, but not here. The awful loss to end that trip wipes out any sluggishness, and the TNT/Lakers combination should ensure that Melo gets a stage to show his wares, and someone like J.R. Smith should, perhaps, have his first truly good game of the year. Also, are the Lakers really 6 points better than the Nuggets on a neutral court? That's a big line, considering LA was only laying 7 to Portland at home, and the Blazers were on a back-to-back! Something is amiss. Lean to DENVER and to the UNDER.
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  • Guess it's time to come back into this thread after a nice live chat fizzled before the late game.... JV, it looks like the first 4 of the 6-parlay would have hit, but the leans on this late game aren't looking as solid.

    Time to get tomorrow's blog up...it's getting late!

  • The old jv wins probably would have dan but insteadI showed remarkable disapline and bet 3 s.u.Boston+7,over 185 and uconn+5.5.got the sweep my man.you had the big easy with the bulls,I had easy 2&3.hahaha. did that 6 lean parlay hit dan?

  • 2 for 2 on leans in that Bulls game, and the Celts/Over leans look pretty good after 3 quarters in the other one.

    I wonder if JV WINS decided to play that 6-lean  parlay?

  • Nate robinson is a one man wrecking crew....problem is that he wrecks his own team

  • anyone else watching millen battle formike time with that big mouth thiesman?

  • COME ON OVER TO THE LIVE CHAT!!

  • GL Danno, like that DEN free one I'm taking the ML in that one. Just scraped the GSW/CHI UNDER from the card dropped a few too many points but I can't see the Warriors putting up any points tonight.  Join you all over in the chat soon.

  • Haha, awesome Ben!

    Well, whenever you have time, we love having you around!

    By the way, guys, Goodfella and I are hosting a LIVE CHAT tonight for the NBA/NFL/CFB action.

    Here's the link, so we can take the conversation over there in an hour or two:

    pregame.com/.../138018.aspx

  • casual spectator of the NBA********

  • Dan, I'll defer that response till tomorrow or monday when I get my response from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, with regards to my graduate application lol. Aside from that I am very well, studies are intense in my final year but manageable and the NFL betting has been good. I've been a casual spectator of the NFL and nice to see my Celtics doing well.

    Let's hope you nail another pick tonight, I'm off out now to get drunk as a good student should.

  • Blitz -

    I'm not sold on Hawks, yet.  They were VASTLY overrated thanks to a CAKE schedule, and now they're getting exposed.

    If Utah has anything left in the tank, kudos to them, but I'm a fan of watching this game, and betting the following Jazz game in Charlotte based on how this one goes

  • Ben!!  What's up buddy??  Good to have you back around.  Father and son, reunited in the NBA blog, hahaha!

  • Hey, Dan.. what do you think of the Hawks tomorrow..i'm looking ahead a bit..but i think the Hawks are in a good situation and i only see this line moving up ...

  • Hi Dan,

    Long time no speak. I had my 2nd year Uni exams and then I was in south Africa for the world cup last spring/summer and then the NBA season finished.

    Nice to see you've done exceptionally well the last week. I won't lie I'm not the biggest NBA better, but I do like your blog as it is one of a kind in terms of how open and sociable it is.

    I tend to listen to my Dad who is a big follower of yours on NBA, and he likes Chicago tonight. I may play that but tonight i'm playing Atlanta (NFL) as I've done well this year in NFL ( I've gone 42 - 23... yes I keep a record lol).

    Good luck everyone!