that's some straight weird-ass crap right there...how on earth does an NFL blog get referenced on a discussion about backup girlfriends?
CAR is definitely an interesting play this week. The line has opened and stayed at -6.5. Books aren't stupid and the longer this line stays at -6.5 the more reason I have to back CAR. Not olny does it look so easy to tease the Saints down, but the books rarely allow people to take advantage of key numbers. Lines that open at -2.5 or -6.5 are usually bad games to back favorites.
Great shit El Samo.
Good point Samo!
For me, I usually like to wait on those bad teams, until they look like they're actually figuring something out, at least a little. I've taken a few 1* fliers this year, and they've gone poorly.
I do, however, agree, that the line is a value for Carolina. I just don't trust that team, and DeAngelo Williams is out again, so we'll see more Stewart (which isn't a bad thing), but also more passing game, most likely
Dan, since you broke the rules and talked about line value in the 'Aints/Panthers game, I want to quickly point out that line has public disaster written all over it. It sounds so easy to tease New Orleans to a pick, after all, "they really look like they are back on track after that win over Pittsburgh." I think we can't forget that New Orleans is still a very flawed and injured team that is going against a legitimate defense on the road. I know we like to stay away from trends, but in the past 3 seasons NO has only covered once against Carolina.
I feel like we are getting to a new phase of the season, where we have to recognize that the ugly teams we have been cashing on for the past month (Buffalo, Oakland, Detroit, St. Louis) are starting to lose their value. As this happens, we need to start looking for our next crop of teams that the public is auto-fading. Carolina just might be one of those teams
litlle scary this week. minn and nyg look like $$...based on what we have seen lately,no?
Haha, EVERY QB should be scared when that Giants front 4 comes knocking...not his fault that he's going to be running for his life!
Easy there Dan. Not everybody can have an Aaron Rodgers...hahaha.
Unless Osi takes his head off on the first play of the game...
Charlie Whitehurst...ole Clemson boy! He showed life during the preseason and will have a rowdy crowd to help him out at home this weekend. Pass for sure, but will be cool to see a Clemson QB start an NFL game...can't remember the last time that happened.
By the way, some interesting injury news...
Matt Hasselbeck is OUT this weekend...that game is a PASS for me now, with charlie whitehurst getting the nod.
Antonio Gates now has a bruised toe on one foot, and a popped plantar fascia on the other! If he plays, he's going to be at 50%, at best. San Diego's offense will take a HUGE hit if its without Gates.
Yeah, PASSSSSS for me on that game. if I'm backing Lions at home against a superior team, I want 6 points. There's a little value in Detroit at the current line, but for me, not enough to warrant a play against a team that has the potential to dominate
appreciate the kind words, Dan. I gotta tip my cap to Pregame tho, to both the Pros and some of the members in the community, I definitely wasn't this deep before I got here.
You bring up a great point with that Lions/Jets game Samo. I really can't add much cuz you pretty much covered it all including the nice comparison to that monday night game. I'll just add the fact that this game isn't a stand alone game Sunday night or Monday night so it would make me feel a little more confident taking a "square" play in the Jets. People might be onto the Lions, but the fact is when it comes down to laying the cash, i don't think the public has the cajones to make the play against the jets. It's barely Thursday and more of the public money won't be coming in til tomorrow and onto the weekend, but the percentages are around 80% in favor of the Jets. Initially, i thought this game was Lions or Pass, but now i feel a little more leniant as far as taking the Jets, but ultimately i think i have to pass.
Dan Bebe: "I love making ugly plays."
I feel like there is a "that's what she said" or a "that is what I told your mom" joke in there somewhere. Maybe?
I want to focus for a second on this NYJ/Lions game. Let me say for a second, that I can't stand ESPN's Colin Cowherd. I had to drive somewhere for work yesterday and he was on with fellow ESPN commentator, Chad Millman. Now, another aside. If anyone ever tells me they listen to Millman's podcast I first ask them "WHY!?" then point them to Bebe and Gill's podcasts. If you want to listen to a guy who is perpetually in awe of "vegas and sharp money" listen to millman, if you want to listen to a couple of guys who are truly interested in this industry and put out info listen to Pregame (and if you want to listen to a guy who looks down at his listeners listen to cowherd).
Now back to my point. I feel like the lions are like a hot stock tip you hear from your buddy. By the time people are talking it is too late. These two ESPN guys were going on on and about Detroit's ATS record and how "the lions have a nose for the number." While that may all be true, the fact that everyone knows it now makes that information less valuable to us. I once read a book about horse racing from an old timer and his big thing was that people like gambling because we are all a bit larcenous, that is, we all want a "good deal," we want to be "insiders." Maybe ESPN had something there..
A few weeks ago before the Tennessee/Jacksonville MNF I wrote about the how the public can think they are getting a bargain on a line. I think we should be aware that something similar might be going on in this Det/NYJ game especially in light of the puzzling play of the jets and their punter at home against a green bay team that is not really known for defense.