I'm just fine with 3 winners on Sunday!
Just about wrapping up my card...looks like 3 plays on Sunday...smaller card this week...
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Added Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards, Boston Celtics and New Jersey Nets to my NBA PRESEASON BLOG - http://bit.ly/993m9s
defaz -- I feel like if the Colts game continues to drop, we might see a middling effort by the bigger bettors.
And to both of you, I don't think I'd tough that Bears game...the lack of Cutler is going to create all kinds of weird matchups, and the line should adjust pretty quickly
Read jay cutler is out of sunday bears-panthers game, he will be replayed Todd Collins!
under anyone ?
Colts line is down to -7 at most places. I think it may go under the touchdown by gametime. Reports surfacing that Cutler wll NOT play this week. Line is off almost everywhere, but Bookmaker has CAR at -1, a 4 pt swing. The Bears inability to run may cuase them some serious problems this week and it will be interesting to see how Martz adjusts his gameplan now that he may not be able to consistently throw the ball downfield. Cowboys line has gone to -7, I dont think it will move anymore.
Damn right...I love the cover of nightfall
Prince of Perception... that sounds dark.
N/Mikey - I really think this is a nice tool, too, so THANK YOU for the props. Everyone writes a ton about player rosters and such, but you guys aren't stupid...anyone can look up a roster. Understanding PERCEPTION's effect on the line is probably the hugest tool to understanding value, so if we can use this as a starting point...awesome.
Then, from here, we add on other factors, matchups, injuries, momentum, etc., and you got yourself a play!
I'm a little leery of Chicago, if Cutler has ANY concussion symptoms. Houston should cover, but that line is eerily low, and I can't quite figure out why...
El Samo -- that's GREAT, GREAT STUFF!
I actually didn't have those numbers, and truth be told, the "bye" week is still a LITTLE cloudy, in terms of perception. I usually just take a look at the game the team played going INTO the bye week, since I think, in general, the public sort of disregards the week off.
Texans play as well, not wr, whoops
Love the idea of the perception blog! It helped me big time last week with the Browns & Rams. Looking at this week, I'm leaning Bears, Bills & Texans so far.
Last week, I think the Bear open up a 4 point favorite. This week they are -3 at +105. I know they are on the road, but the Panthers / Saints game is bringing that line to a much more valuable place than where it would have been a few days ago.
For the Bills game, I wish the weather was going to be worse for the Florida team. But still, Jax is the same team that lost by 25 at home to Philly & 31 on the road at SD. Buffalo is far from good, but if that line gets up up -2.5 or maybe 3, then I love that play.
The Texans are still somewhat of a public team, but I think the Giants are still overrated, especially on the road. Texans laid more point on the road last week, than at home this week? Against a team with injuries, infighting & on the road? Really liking that play as wr.
Thanks for bringing another insight & tool to my handicapping. It's been working really well this year & imppro ing my thought process as well. BOL this week!