Gonna check out the NFL podcast before things get crazy. Have fun at the big house today.
Good morning guys -- please remember to check out the COLLEGE FOOTBALL PODCAST, and the 2-part MONSTER NFL PODCAST, as well!
I also have 3 FREE CFB plays today as well as a for-sale Game of the Week in the late evening.
Any questions about my card, please feel free to ask, but I really want to make sure everyone checks out the podcasts!
Okay, this might be the most exciting news of the entire week!
Gill, Hook, Marco and I recorded a MONSTER NFL Weekly Special podcast that I just posted on BOTH of our podcast channels!
I REALLY, REALLY think you guys should check it out because it's frickin' hilarious, and probably will make you money on about 50-60% of the games this weekend!
Here's a quick link: http://bit.ly/47ECku
I believe they will continue to hit pretty well.
Here's my prediction, and then if it comes true I'll point back to this post and talk about how awesome I am (haha)...
Monday Night home dogs will continue to hit for another couple weeks, then the public will start to catch on a little...then POW, a road favorite will smash the home dog, and we'll go right back to having value on the home team.
The see-saw is coming, but we're still a week or two off, I believe.
Ok, figured thats what you meant. So, safe to say Bears or nothing in that one! Those MNF dogs sure have done us right so far.
Oh, yes, sorry about that...haha.
The ones that simply say, "So and so should win because they're the better team"...feh to that!
When you say expert, do you mean "expert?" As in talking head kinda guy?
Here's my very simplified issue with the Pack. They look invincible. Any team that looks unbeatable is going to have issues covering spreads, and oddsmakers are fully aware of that.
I haven't heard 1 expert pick the Bears...
Okay, never got to finish responding earlier today...had to do some podcasts, and those took a solid 2.5 hours!
El Samo - THANKS FOR HOPPING ABOARD! Also, nice job getting the "early bird" special of just 22 bucks, since I raise the price up to 25 on Saturday.
Yeah, ya know, the issue with that Pitt/Miami game, and it was the reason that my play was only a 1*, was that Miami was coming off that ugly game in Columbus, so the line wasn't QUITE as inflated as I would have liked, and they were absolutely seeing red after playing so poorly against Ohio St. I wouldn't let one game completely boggle your mind, since, hell, we might come right back tonight and see the home dog cover, and everything will go back to normal.
As far as NFL line moves in those 3 games you mention, here are my thoughts:
I believe ALL THREE will be AT or ABOVE the opening number at kickoff. The public bets LATE, so the sharps have been able to take some positions early, and now they can sit back.
Of the 3 you mention, I would say the safe play would be to buy off those games, and just try again next week, since even if you DO set up a middle, it would be a VERY small one. And of those 3 games, my BEST guess as to which line has the best chance of moving towards the favorite would be the MNF game, just because of sheer betting volume.
The Packers may actually have some value this week. If Dallas had played at people expected last week, the line would have been GB -4.5 . If GB is really the team everyone think they are this is their chance to prove it to everyone on a big stage. Its a statement game and monday night home dogs can't cover every spread. GB is the better team and should prove it in front of a national audience.
No worries Greg! That's what I'm here for!
I think KC is the right side in that game, but San Francisco could very well be playing with desperation this week, and that makes a game awfully tough to handicap because weird things happen. I can't imagine the Niners keep turning it over like they have been, either...
so4 -- I'd be careful, there. The Packers are not as invincible as they've looked, and Chicago can absolutely keep up, offensively...
Just picked up your NFL package for the weekend. I'm ready to get back to that 5-0 week with you!
Dan, can we talk about the line movements from yesterday and today. Or I guess I could say lack of movement. As I mentioned on monday I am trying to set up a few middles on some games and something appears to be going wrong. Specifically with the Cincy, Philly, and MNF sides. I took the favorite in all of these games thinking that the public would be thinking it was too short and that I would be able to set up a nice middle around a key number of 3. All was going well and my thinking was correct in all of these games as the line was moving towards the favorite. Then all of a sudden, yesterday the lines all moved back to the opening point and effectively slammed the door on my middles. "Should I have not been so greedy?", I rhetorically ask. Probably, but in my defense, indicators such as sportsbook spy showed that the money was coming in on the favorite. Are these lines gonna move away from their opening point and get back to movement they showed on tuesday/wednesday? I would love to hear your take.
On a side note, that Pittsburgh play last night seemed to suggest to me that this college weekend is not going to be as simple as we may have thought. Pitt was the definite sharp side from a situational point of view, much like some other teams this weekend might look real sharp (ARKANSAS) . The hurricanes really steered my college ship into the stay away zone. Anyway, thanks for the special price play. We'll get 'em next time.