We dropped a stinker last night, as Todd Wellemeyer didn't keep the Giants in the game, at all, serving up 7 runs early, and despite a 5-run 9th inning San Francisco dropped the opener of their intrastate rivalry series, 10-8. At the underdog price, however, that does take a little bit of the sting out of it. No excuses, it was the only play on the card I liked, and clearly, I was wrong.

Today, however, we have NBA Playoffs getting started and more MLB action, with a fresh supply of day games to whet our palettes.

Bulls @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 11 with a total of 191.5. Playoff time! It's a totally different bird, so I don't want you guys forgetting EVERYTHING we've learned about money management over the last 6 months and squandering our NBA profits on games where the lines, for all intents and purposes, are going to be quite tight. As Vegas-Runner always notes, books make their money because of volume in big games, and unless there's a huge public split, there isn't going to be a TON of inherent line value, and that's really for any game, so keep a close eye on the bet percentages in these heavily bet games. On this game in particular, we've been watching the bets come in all week, and the action is split almost right down the middle. So, when the line doesn't give us a strong indicator, we have to look at motivational issues, and, really, the sheer skill level of each team. The line certainly indicates what we already know, which is that the Cavs are the vastly superior ball club. From a motivational standpoint, I wonder if the Bulls don't feel like they did what they set out to do. A team in turmoil, Chicago barely squeezed into the Playoffs, and I think the difficult question here is whether Chicago feels like they can finally relax, or whether they play like they have nothing to lose. I happen to believe this particular Chicago team isn't all that motivated. They won some big games, but they never looked, in my opinion, all that comfortable doing it, and while I'd love to bet on a team to stay within 11 points, the mere fact that that's how high the line had to be raised to get equal money is a strong indicator of how bad Chicago really is. I know Lebron might be rusty from taking some time off, or at least that's what Chicago-backers will say, but this side is absolutely a PASS for me. The total has actually moved up 1.5 points off the opening number, and that strikes me as interesting, given how tough, slow and grinding playoff games can be. That line move keeps me off the total, most likely, though I think this one eventually slows down.

Bucks @ Hawks - Atlanta by 8.5 with a total of 186.5. This is really where we see how great a coach Scott Skiles truly is. Can he take this undersized, somewhat rag-tag group of overachievers, and steal a game in Atlanta? We're talking about a Hawks team that was among the top few home teams in the entire NBA, so it won't be easy. This is a series where I happen to believe that the best course of action might be to watch a game and see how Skiles tries to defend the Hawks. I struggle to find a way that Milwaukee can really compete without Bogut against a bigger, stronger club like Atlanta, especially on the road, but you always know those road teams are going to come out hungry, so it's not an impossibility. I happen to think this line is pretty accurate, though I also like Milwaukee to not go down without a fight. IF the Hawks cover, it will occur pretty late in the game, when Milwaukee potentially runs out of gas, but if the Bucks come out and hit some shots early -- get the confidence going in the playoffs -- they could be a tough nut the rest of the game. I would offer a miniscule lean on the side to the Bucks. On the total, I think this ultra-low number is going to drive money to the over. That means we're getting value on the Under, especially if the line climbs at all as we approach game time.

Heat @ Celtics - Boston by 4 with a total of 185. I'm honestly a tad surprised we're seeing this line at just 4. I know Boston's been looking downright silly near the end of the season, but something tells me those old legs weren't all that concerned with making a push for better playoff seeding, and instead they just seemed to want that one win over the Cavs, and after they knew they could beat Cleveland, Boston kind of went to sleep. Looking at the season series, Boston seemed to outplay Miami in most aspects, winning all 3 games, and covering 2 of 3. The only game Chicago covered was by the hook. And really, Boston probably could have won all 3 games by more if they limited the turnovers just a bit. Boston turned it over 24 times in the second meeting between these two teams, and I have to think Doc Rivers has been trying to implore his guys to take care of the basketball. I happen to think the old farts do just that. Miami has a wider range of potential results, I feel. They play good defense, but they may or may not score on a daily basis. Boston's defense is decent (not as good as in years past), but they can score, and those double-pick-and-roll situations Boston sets up at the perimeter are nearly indefensible. I actually lean to the slightly more public side, and I think Boston covers by a bucket. The total is probably accurate, as we saw a few games between these teams go way, way over similar numbers in the regular season, so for oddsmakers to bring this one out at the same general number is their way of telling us this is the real number, so we should get used to it. Slight lean to the Under.

Jazz @ Nuggets - Denver by 5 with a total of 209. I think folks are putting too much stock in the Nuggets slump in late March and very early April. This team is good. They have Kenyon Martin back, partially healthy, and Chauncey Billups is about as dangerous a player as there is in the Playoffs. It also doesn't hurt to have one of the 2 or 3 players in the NBA that can legitimately create his own shot any time he wants in Carmelo Anthony. I think this game (and series) is a great matchup of two hard-nosed teams that want to bump and smash and score and come out slightly less beat up at day's end. The Jazz do it with pinpoint offensive execution - a "ton" of screens is an understatement. The Nuggets do it with breakneck speed, explosive scoring, opportunistic defense, and the long range jumper. I happen to think that because of Denver's slump, we're getting a pretty darn low number for the Nuggets at home. I'm a little concerned that the public does seem to enjoy that Denver side, but I think the Nuggets have a nice shot to cover this number. In all likelihood, all four games today might be decided by 4 points or less on the sides, and that's a huge reason why I suggest treading lightly. Here, tiny lean to the public side of Denver, and lean to the Under, as folks are going to see these two teams and forget how things slow down in the Playoffs.

Carlos Lee is 3-for-7 with 1 HR and 3 RBI off Gorzelanny;

Ryan Theriot is 6-for-17 off Oswalt;

Craig Counsell is 4-for-9 off Hernandez with 2 RBI;

Jody Gerut is 2-for-3 with 1 HR and 3 RBI, and Gregg Zaun is 2-for-2 off Hernandez;

Christian Guzman is 3-for-8 off Randy Wolf;

Josh Willingham is 4-for-8 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Wolf.

Yadier Molina is 4-for-11 off Santana;

Albert Pujols is 6-for-12 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Santana.

Garret Anderson, Ronnie Belliard, and Blake Dewitt are 2-for-4, and 3-for-6 (2x) off Lincecum.

John Baker is 3-for-7 off Moyer;

Chris Coghlan is 5-for-10 off Moyer;

Wes Helms is 7-for-19 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Moyer;

Ronny Paulino is 8-for-18 off Moyer;

Hanley Ramirez is batting .348 with 4 HR and 7 RBI off Moyer;

Raul Ibanez is 4-for-6 off Nolasco;

Chase Utley is batting .304 off Nolasco with 1 HR and 4 RBI.

Yunel Escobar is 5-for-8 off Jimenez;

Chipper Jones is 4-for-13 off Jimenez with 3 RBI.

Adam Laroche is 5-for-10 off Correia;

Gerardo Parra is 5-for-12 off Correia;

Matt Stairs is 5-for-15 with a HR off Kris Benson.

Ryan Garko is 5-for-12 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off Burnett;

Josh Hamilton is 4-for-11 with 1 HR and 3 RBI off Burnett;

Curtis Granderson is 4-for-6 with 3 HR and 6 RBI off Feldman;

Jorge Posada is 3-for-5 with a HR off Feldman;

Mark Teixeira is 3-for-10 off Feldman, but he's in his typical early offensive funk.

Bobby Abreu is 3-for-8 off Tallet with 2 RBI;

Hideki Matsui is 10-for-18 off Tallet with 1 HR and 7 RBI;

Juan Rivera is 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI.

Alberto Callaspo is 5-for-12 with a HR off Blackburn;

David DeJesus is 7-for-15 off Blackburn with a HR;

Jose Guillen is 3-for-7, and Jason Kendall is 3-for-5;

Michael Cuddyer is 7-for-16 off Meche with a HR and 3 RBI;

Joe Mauer is 7-for-20 with 2 HR and 10 RBI;

Justin Morneau is batting .313 off Meche since 2005 with 2 HR and 8 RBI.

Mark Ellis is 4-for-11 with 3 RBI off Guthrie;

Gabe Gross is 3-for-7 off Guthrie;

Kurt Suzuki is 4-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Guthrie.

Grady Sizemore is a perfect 3-for-3 off Peavy;

Austin Kearns is 3-for-8 off Peavy.

In limited action, B.J. Upton is 2-for-4 off Buccholz and Ben Zobrist is 2-for-5;

J.D. Drew is 10-for-24 off Shields with 2 HR and 6 RBI;

Mike Lowell is 9-for-25 off Shields;

David Ortiz is batting .391 off Shields since 2005 with 2 HR and 6 RBI;

Dustin Pedroia is batting .455 off Shields with a HR.

Ryan Raburn is 3-for-5 with 2 HR off Rowland-Smith;

Milton Bradley is 3-for-6 off Verlander;

Ichiro is batting .367 off Verlander since '05 with 1 HR and 5 RBI.