WNBA - San Antonio Silver Stars @ Washington Mystics
I like the Silver Stars to have a strong start in this game for several
reasons. First of all the Stars have revenge in their mind because they
lost at home against this Washington team 82-84 a couple of weeks ago
and they were trailing almost all game so I expect a better effort from
them since the start. San Antonio is coming from a tough home loss
against Minnesota 76-83 and once again they started slow the game as
they were trailing 33-42 at the break and allowed the Lynx to shot a
whooping mark of 52.6 % from the field. This works for us because San
Antonio is 13-2 against the 1rst half line off a home loss over the
last 3 seasons, a sign that they bounced back after bad performances
and usually they started strong those games.
Meanwhile Washington is coming for this game in a good mood as they
beat the Sparks at home in their last game. Note that they outscored
the Sparks 22-7 in the first quarter and this is tough to repeat and I
wouldn't be surprised if they start this game a bit relaxed after such
early dominance in the previous game. In fact this team is a great fade
material after winning one game because they can't keep the level. I
remember that Washington is 2-12 against the 1rst half line after 1 or
more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
I know that San Antonio is 1-4 SU & ATS on the road this season but
if we discount the two games that Becky Hammon didn't play (@ NY and @
CONN) the Silver Stars were 3-0 SU & ATS at the break on their road
games against Phoenix, Seattle and Minnesota - all great teams! Take
San Antonio Halftime in here!
Single Dime Play on San Antonio Silver Stars HALF TIME (+2)
WNBA - Atlanta Dream @ Minnesota Lynx
These two
teams faced each other a couple of weeks ago and the totals line were
174 points but yet the game ended with 176 points. For this contest we
are dealing with 10 points less without any kind of relevant factor
that justifies such huge lines drop.
After that game the Dream played four more games and those games
ended with the Under cashing 3-1. However I'm not buying the idea that
they are playing better defense or worst offense. This is all about
matchups and opponents characteristics? In this league there are 4
teams that play in a fast pace: Phoenix, Minnesota, Atlanta and
Chicago. Saying that is not a big surprise that these 4 teams are the
WORST defensive teams of the league. Well during that 3-1 Under' span
the Dream faced Washington, Indiana, Connecticut and New York. A quick
look in the defensive stats (points per game allowed) and we can say
that Atlanta faced the best defensive teams of the league and naturally
some the games stayed bellow the total posted.
WNBA Defense Sorted by ppg allowed:
1 Indiana 68.2
2 New York 70.7
3 Seattle 70.8
4 Connecticut 71.0
5 San Antonio 73.0
6 Los Angeles 73.3
7 Washington 77.2
However
when Atlanta faced "those" fast paced teams the Over is a solid 3-0 and
what about Minnesota? The answer is 4-0 Over! The matchup between these
two teams favors a high scoring game as Atlanta has a huge edge in the
frontcourt/rebounds battle and the Lynx have a better backcourt.
Yesterday Lynx coach Jen Gillom said she hopes her team can counter the
mismatch in the frontcourt by speeding up the game. My real line for
this game is 168/171 points and I see some value on the Over in here.
Single Dime Play on Over 164
WNBA - Detroit Shock @ Seattle Storm
I understand
that Seattle will be pretty hungry for this contest after losing at
KeyArena in more then a year against Chicago despite being a 12-point
chalk favorite and the second longest home winning streak of the WNBA
history ended in a bad mood. However that doesn't guarantee that
Seattle will roll over the next opponent because with 9.5 points in the
line we are talking about a blowout win and Detroit is one of the worst
teams in the league to face having the blowout word on their minds.
Seattle made an awful defensive job against Chicago by allowing
them to shot 60.8 % from the field all game! In their two previous
games they had some problems to score as despite beating Sacramento and
San Antonio they scored only 66 points in both contests. Their
superstar Lauren Jackson has been slowed down by some minor injuries
and after a great start she is averaging 11.6 points per game L5 games.
Detroit meanwhile is coming from their first road win of the season
in Connecticut so they are pretty confident for this game. With their
big players Ford and Braxton back they are crushing the boards with
some ease (+9.75 rebounds per game L4 games) and Seattle will have some
problems tonight in this department. Detroit is a veteran team that
knows what to do on the court and if they started slow the game they
won't give up the game easily and I doubt that Seattle can rout them
all game. If we were talking about a young team I would believe in that
(Seattle beat Minnesota 90-62 after starting the game 31-19 in the
first quarter) but facing a veteran team it's hard to dominate all
game.
Detroit is a better and talented team than their 3-7 SU record and
they are underrated for this contest. I don't expect them to have a
letdown today because they are 6-0 ATS off an upset win as a road
underdog and I wouldn't be surprised if they end the game with a real
shot to win this contest. My real line for this game is Seattle by 5/7
points and that's why I'm taking Detroit in here.
Single Dime Play on Detroit Shock (+9.5)