ATP Abu Dhabi Exhibition Final - Rafael Nadal vs Robin Soderling

Match to be played at 08:00AM EST

I generally don’t like to bet on exhibitions. Players tend to lack motivation, causing my job of handicapping to be much harder to do, as it’s hard to predict who is going to be motivated or not on a match where basically they are playing for nothing. However, on this case, it’s easy to predict why Rafael Nadal will be highly motivated to win this match.

As you probably remember, Robin Soderling upsetted Rafael Nadal in the fourth round of Roland Garros last season, causing the first loss ever of Rafael Nadal on that tournament. After such upset, Nadal obviously wanted to get revenge over Soderling, especially as the two don’t get along at all, as it had been seen in the 2007 edition of Wimbledon, where Soderling provoked Nadal the whole match. However, injuries clearly limited Nadal on the second half of the season and when these two players faced each other again in the ATP World Tour Finals in London, Soderling was playing on his best ever, while Nadal was clearly struggling on his movement and was also lacking confidence, as it was clear by his unusual number of unforced errors and also by the shots which were constantly lacking depth and falling on the service line. Thanks to these factors, Soderling defeated once again Nadal, this time by 6-4 6-4, on a tournament where Nadal lost all his three matches, without even having won a single set. This second defeat obviously only added fuel to his desire of getting revenge over Soderling and honestly, we can only expect Nadal to be fully motivated today, in order to finally beat Soderling, as not only that would give him the revenge that he desires, but it would also give him the confidence that he needs to defend his Australian Open title later on this month.

On the other side, Robin Soderling will play his third match in three days, as he defeated Stanislas Wawrinka by 7-6 7-6 two days ago and yesterday, he defeated Roger Federer by 6-7 7-6 6-2. Beating Federer was certainly incredible for him, as the Swedish player had lost his first 12 matches against the world number one. If we combine the effort that he spent on winning these two matches with the great feeling of finally having defeated Federer, I truly believe that this is a clear potential letdown spot for the Swedish player. While Soderling played two matches, Nadal played just yesterday against Ferrer (a match which he won by 7-6 6-3), on a match where he left a good impression, looking much better than he did in the final of last season, especially in terms of confidence on his forehand wing, which is now once again being hit with the depth and aggression that led the Spanish player to the top of the rankings in 2008.

If we combine the motivation of Nadal to win this match, with the fact that the Spanish player is surely a better overall player than Soderling on a slow hardcourt surface, I cannot understand the current line set by some sportsbooks, as some of them are actually listing this match as a 50/50 one. I can’t agree with such statement, as I believe Nadal should have been a 1.60/1.65 favorite in here. Take Nadal to get this exhibition tournament, but most important than that, to get revenge over the player who humiliated him twice last season. Take Nadal in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Rafael Nadal ML @ -110 on 5Dimes