ATP Abu Dhabi Exhibition Final - Rafael Nadal vs Robin Soderling
Match to be played at 08:00AM EST
I generally don’t like to bet on exhibitions. Players tend to lack
motivation, causing my job of handicapping to be much harder to do, as
it’s hard to predict who is going to be motivated or not on a match
where basically they are playing for nothing. However, on this case,
it’s easy to predict why Rafael Nadal will be highly motivated to win
this match.
As you probably remember, Robin Soderling upsetted Rafael Nadal in
the fourth round of Roland Garros last season, causing the first loss
ever of Rafael Nadal on that tournament. After such upset, Nadal
obviously wanted to get revenge over Soderling, especially as the two
don’t get along at all, as it had been seen in the 2007 edition of
Wimbledon, where Soderling provoked Nadal the whole match. However,
injuries clearly limited Nadal on the second half of the season and
when these two players faced each other again in the ATP World Tour
Finals in London, Soderling was playing on his best ever, while Nadal
was clearly struggling on his movement and was also lacking confidence,
as it was clear by his unusual number of unforced errors and also by
the shots which were constantly lacking depth and falling on the
service line. Thanks to these factors, Soderling defeated once again
Nadal, this time by 6-4 6-4, on a tournament where Nadal lost all his
three matches, without even having won a single set. This second defeat
obviously only added fuel to his desire of getting revenge over
Soderling and honestly, we can only expect Nadal to be fully motivated
today, in order to finally beat Soderling, as not only that would give
him the revenge that he desires, but it would also give him the
confidence that he needs to defend his Australian Open title later on
this month.
On the other side, Robin Soderling will play his third match in
three days, as he defeated Stanislas Wawrinka by 7-6 7-6 two days ago
and yesterday, he defeated Roger Federer by 6-7 7-6 6-2. Beating
Federer was certainly incredible for him, as the Swedish player had
lost his first 12 matches against the world number one. If we combine
the effort that he spent on winning these two matches with the great
feeling of finally having defeated Federer, I truly believe that this
is a clear potential letdown spot for the Swedish player. While
Soderling played two matches, Nadal played just yesterday against
Ferrer (a match which he won by 7-6 6-3), on a match where he left a
good impression, looking much better than he did in the final of last
season, especially in terms of confidence on his forehand wing, which
is now once again being hit with the depth and aggression that led the
Spanish player to the top of the rankings in 2008.
If we combine the motivation of Nadal to win this match, with the
fact that the Spanish player is surely a better overall player than
Soderling on a slow hardcourt surface, I cannot understand the current
line set by some sportsbooks, as some of them are actually listing this
match as a 50/50 one. I can’t agree with such statement, as I believe
Nadal should have been a 1.60/1.65 favorite in here. Take Nadal to get
this exhibition tournament, but most important than that, to get
revenge over the player who humiliated him twice last season. Take
Nadal in here.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Rafael Nadal ML @ -110 on 5Dimes